2026 forecast · Michigan Senate

Abdul El-Sayed is favored to win Michigan's Senate seat.

Abdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers, an open seat. The model has El-Sayed ahead by 3.1 points, winning 72 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean DModel D +3.1Polls D +1.7Updated October 22, 2026

Abdul El-Sayed

Democrat

50.1%

2,482,149 projected votes

Mike Rogers

Republican

47.0%

2,330,194 projected votes

72%El-Sayed

28%Rogers

El-Sayed favoredEach square is one simulated election night, El-Sayed wins about 72 of 100

RatingLean D72% chance for El-Sayed

Model marginD +3.1Polls D +1.7

80 percent rangeD +9.8 to R +3.52,000 simulations

Projected votes4,955,558El-Sayed 50.1%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Michigan Senate by county

D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

El-Sayed +588,895 net votes from 9 countiesStatewide D +3.0, a 146,897 vote marginRogers +441,998 net votes from 74 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected statewide vote

4,955,558 votes

Candidate	Votes	Share
Abdul El-Sayed D	2,482,149	50.1%
Mike Rogers R	2,330,194	47.0%
Lydia Christensen L	71,360	1.4%
Timothy Long UST	40,636	0.8%
Douglas P. Marsh G	30,724	0.6%
Total	4,955,558	100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.8 and R +3.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Michigan Senate polling average

Size dots by weight

The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

Quantus InsightsOct 6 · 762 LV · Gold16%El-Sayed +1.0

InsiderAdvantageOct 10 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off16%El-Sayed +6.5

Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 · 1,028 LV · A++14%El-Sayed +1.0

On Point PollingOct 18 · 518 LV · Gold11%El-Sayed +5.9

Emerson CollegeSep 14 · 1,000 LV · Gold8.9%El-Sayed +2.0

New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22 · 613 LV · Gold6.0%El-Sayed +5.0

Every other poll together: 29%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
On Point average	LOWESS Election Day projection		D +1.7
On Point Polling	518 LV	0d	D +5.9
Marist University	1,025 LV	0d	R +0.2
Rasmussen Reports	798 LV	1d	D +1.5
InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	5d	D +2.1
Alliance for a Better Future (R)	600 LV	7d	D +0.2
Quantus Insights	762 LV	9d	D +2.8
Guidant Polling for Public First Action	600 LV	10d	D +3.9
YouGov	3,949 LV	11d	D +0.1
Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit	682 LV	14d	D +4.0
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D)	483 RV	14d	D +5.5
Trafalgar Group (R)	1,085 LV	15d	D +3.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company	1,028 LV	17d	D +0.7
NPR/Marist	1,200 RV	18d	D +4.6
Tyson Group for Alliance for a Better Future (R)	600 LV	18d	D +2.8
Big Data Poll	678 LV	21d	D +4.1
co/efficient (R)	843 LV	22d	D +3.9
GBAO (D)	800 LV	23d	D +1.7
New York Times/Siena University	613 LV	23d	D +4.3
Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D)	600 LV	24d	D +6.5
Suffolk University	500 LV	25d	D +5.3
Torchlight Strategies (R)	643 LV	26d	D +1.5
InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	28d	D +2.0
Emerson College	1,000 LV	31d	D +2.8
The Washington Post/SSPG	803 LV	31d	D +1.9
Trafalgar Group (R)	1,079 LV	36d	D +2.2

Model margin

El-Sayed +3.1

Chance of winning

Abdul El-Sayed72%

Mike Rogers28%

Simulated vote

Abdul El-Sayed50.1%

Mike Rogers47.0%

Lydia Christensen1.4%

Timothy Long0.8%

How the model gets there

Partisan leanR +1.4

FundamentalsD +4.0

With pollsD +2.6

Early vote turnoutD +0.4

With early voteD +3.1

Read from 789,654 ballots cast so far in Michigan, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

60 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Abdul El-Sayed29

Barack Obamasource
Bernie Sanderssource
Kamala HarrisFormer Vice Presidentsource
Gretchen WhitmerGovernor of Michigansource
Gary PetersU.S. Senator from Michigansource
Elissa SlotkinU.S. Senator from Michigansource
Chuck SchumerSenate Democratic Leadersource
Pete ButtigiegFormer U.S. Transportation Secretarysource

Mike Rogers31

Donald Trumpsource
JD VanceVice Presidentsource
John ThuneSenate Majority Leadersource
Tim ScottU.S. Senator, NRSC chairsource
John BarrassoU.S. Senator from Wyoming, Senate Majority Whipsource
Jack BergmanU.S. Representative, MI-01source
Tim WalbergU.S. Representative, MI-05source
Fred UptonFormer U.S. Representativesource

On the air

Harry Enten: Named Michigan among six toss up Senate races Democrats need to win at least three of. source

Karl Rove: Called Michigan close with Mike Rogers having a good shot. source

Nate Silver: Pushed back on an El-Sayed supporter's rosy reading of his primary win. source

David Axelrod: Predicted El-Sayed will win and hold the seat. source

David Axelrod: On The Arena said El-Sayed should answer quickly and pivot to the economy, calling his I am smarter than you posture not appealing. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs

Group	Share	El-Sayed	Rogers
GenderMen	46%	46.4	50.7
Women	54%	54.2	42.9
Age18 to 29	14%	53.8	43.2
30 to 44	21%	49.9	47.2
45 to 64	32%	48.3	48.8
65+	33%	51.9	45.3
RaceWhite	79%	42.9	54.2
Black	12%	86.0	11.2
Latino	4%	63.9	33.2
Asian and other	6%	72.1	24.5
Race and genderWhite men	36%	37.3	59.9
White women	43%	47.6	49.5
Black men	6%	84.7	12.5
Black women	6%	87.1	10.1
Latino men	2%	61.0	36.1
Latino women	2%	66.8	30.4
All other races	6%	72.1	24.5

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

83 counties

County	El-Sayed	Rogers	Other	Total	Margin
Statewide	2,479,499	2,332,602	143,457	4,955,558	D +3.0
Wayne County	503,222	216,658	21,500	741,380	D +38.8
Oakland County	386,309	280,647	18,507	685,463	D +15.3
Macomb County	199,809	218,886	13,842	432,537	R +4.5
Kent County	164,007	156,616	9,236	329,859	D +2.3
Washtenaw County	146,534	51,712	5,084	203,330	D +46.7
Genesee County	104,737	82,714	5,399	192,850	D +11.5
Ottawa County	56,950	97,295	3,793	158,038	R +25.6
Ingham County	90,720	42,487	3,556	136,763	D +35.5
Kalamazoo County	74,220	52,725	4,468	131,413	D +16.5
Livingston County	43,265	66,588	3,281	113,134	R +20.7
Saginaw County	43,500	45,193	2,088	90,781	R +1.9
Muskegon County	39,899	39,978	2,811	82,688	Even
St. Clair County	28,619	50,580	3,043	82,242	R +26.8
Monroe County	30,085	45,104	2,566	77,755	R +19.4
Jackson County	29,368	41,454	2,416	73,238	R +16.5
Berrien County	31,265	39,777	1,896	72,938	R +11.6
Allegan County	20,777	39,483	1,927	62,187	R +30.1
Calhoun County	24,812	32,179	2,067	59,058	R +12.5
Eaton County	28,259	27,911	1,559	57,729	D +0.7
Grand Traverse County	26,406	28,026	1,396	55,828	R +2.9
Bay County	23,724	28,191	1,606	53,521	R +8.3
Lenawee County	17,883	28,333	1,429	47,645	R +21.9
Lapeer County	14,894	30,929	1,662	47,485	R +33.9
Midland County	18,161	25,322	1,070	44,553	R +16.0
Clinton County	20,458	22,499	1,012	43,969	R +4.7
Van Buren County	14,341	19,886	1,279	35,506	R +15.6
Marquette County	18,426	16,069	776	35,271	D +6.8
Shiawassee County	14,214	19,883	1,127	35,224	R +16.1
Barry County	10,580	21,550	1,131	33,261	R +33.0
Ionia County	10,200	18,882	1,117	30,199	R +28.8
Montcalm County	9,265	19,587	1,171	30,023	R +34.6
Isabella County	13,521	13,981	909	28,411	R +1.8
Tuscola County	7,742	17,869	819	26,430	R +38.3
St. Joseph County	7,776	16,477	958	25,211	R +34.6
Newaygo County	6,929	17,210	927	25,066	R +41.1
Cass County	7,766	15,178	637	23,581	R +31.6
Hillsdale County	5,545	14,890	720	21,155	R +44.3
Sanilac County	5,400	14,273	672	20,345	R +43.8
Emmet County	8,569	11,231	508	20,308	R +13.1
Mecosta County	6,692	12,390	611	19,693	R +28.9
Delta County	6,796	11,848	341	18,985	R +26.6
Branch County	5,490	12,302	646	18,438	R +37.0
Gratiot County	6,256	10,908	512	17,676	R +26.3
Houghton County	7,480	9,698	368	17,546	R +12.7
Wexford County	5,140	11,010	534	16,684	R +35.2
Chippewa County	6,388	9,672	446	16,506	R +20.0
Huron County	5,115	10,815	392	16,322	R +35.0
Mason County	5,910	9,532	396	15,838	R +22.8
Charlevoix County	6,033	9,066	371	15,470	R +19.5
Leelanau County	7,455	7,481	321	15,257	Even
Alpena County	5,560	9,164	331	15,055	R +24.1
Clare County	4,560	9,743	534	14,837	R +34.9
Antrim County	5,338	8,783	437	14,558	R +23.8
Cheboygan County	5,027	8,964	388	14,379	R +27.5
Roscommon County	4,721	8,688	486	13,895	R +28.7
Iosco County	5,002	8,244	438	13,684	R +23.8
Otsego County	4,308	8,970	369	13,647	R +34.3
Manistee County	5,523	7,731	354	13,608	R +16.2
Gladwin County	4,185	8,645	397	13,227	R +33.7
Dickinson County	4,185	8,782	251	13,218	R +35.0
Oceana County	4,384	8,229	457	13,070	R +29.4
Osceola County	2,886	8,114	364	11,364	R +46.1
Benzie County	4,978	5,904	268	11,150	R +8.3
Menominee County	3,804	7,030	266	11,100	R +29.2
Ogemaw County	3,471	7,023	369	10,863	R +32.8
Kalkaska County	2,842	6,513	359	9,714	R +37.8
Missaukee County	1,865	5,883	207	7,955	R +50.5
Arenac County	2,604	4,958	274	7,836	R +30.1
Presque Isle County	2,766	4,754	177	7,697	R +25.7
Gogebic County	3,092	3,955	166	7,213	R +12.1
Crawford County	2,367	4,607	216	7,190	R +31.2
Mackinac County	2,598	4,179	160	6,937	R +22.9
Alcona County	1,953	4,260	146	6,359	R +36.2
Iron County	2,279	3,704	147	6,130	R +23.4
Lake County	2,128	3,613	214	5,955	R +24.9
Montmorency County	1,574	3,763	149	5,486	R +39.5
Alger County	1,860	2,688	122	4,670	R +17.8
Oscoda County	1,250	2,996	159	4,405	R +39.5
Schoolcraft County	1,476	2,675	80	4,231	R +28.3
Baraga County	1,359	2,384	80	3,823	R +26.8
Ontonagon County	1,273	2,047	89	3,409	R +22.5
Luce County	764	1,848	75	2,687	R +40.0
Keweenaw County	605	786	25	1,416	R +12.9

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology

Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.