2026 forecast · Wisconsin 2nd

Mark Pocan is unopposed for Wisconsin's 2nd District.

Mark Pocan vs No Republican on the ballot. The seat is uncontested.

Safe DModel D +100.0Updated October 22, 2026
RatingSafe D100% chance for Pocan
Model marginUncontestedNo polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +100.0 to D +100.02,000 simulations
Projected votes375,145Pocan 0.0%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Wisconsin districts

8 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected district vote

375,145 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Mark Pocan D00.0%
No Republican on the ballot R00.0%
Total375,145100%

Uncontested by one of the major parties.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Pocan0% ballot11 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Wisconsin governor polling average
40%41%42%43%44%45%46%47%48%49%50%51%Aug 7Aug 14Aug 21Aug 28Sep 4Sep 11Sep 18Sep 25Oct 2Oct 948.0Crowley43.7Tiffany
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Platform Communications (R)Aug 13 · 500 LV · NR18%Crowley +4.0
Marquette UniversityAug 20 · 738 LV · NR17%Crowley +5.0
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D)Oct 1 · 662 RV · NR17%Crowley +5.0
TIPP Insights (R)Aug 18 · 1,199 LV · A17%Crowley +4.0
Marquette UniversitySep 23 · 750 LV · NR15%Crowley +3.0
YouGov for City Forward CollectiveOct 9 · 1,715 A · C15%Crowley +4.0
Every other poll together: 0.6%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Uncontested
Chance of winning
Mark Pocan100%
No Republican on the ballot0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +40.0
FundamentalsD +100.0
With pollsD +100.0

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +48R +48Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +40.0
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.