2026 ballot measure forecast

New Mexico Constitutional Amendment 2

Allow school elections with partisan elections

Removes the requirement that school elections be held separately from partisan elections, allowing them on November even year ballots. The forecast has Yes at 59.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 84% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureElectionsUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

84%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

59.9%

80% range 47 to 72

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 59.9% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 59.9% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Simple majority assumed. It amends Art. VII Sec. 1 (elective franchise), which Art. XIX Sec. 1 has historically shielded with a 3/4 statewide and 2/3 per county requirement; whether that applies was not confirmed.

The campaign

Co-sponsored by Sen. Linda Trujillo (D); critics warn of voter fatigue.

Also on the New Mexico ballot

Constitutional Amendment 1

End pocket veto, require veto explanations

97%

Constitutional Amendment 3

Nominating committee for university regents

94%

Constitutional Amendment 4

Tie legislator pay to median income

97%

Bond Question 1

Senior citizen facilities bond

95%

Bond Question 2

Library acquisitions bond

94%

Bond Question 3

Higher education and tribal schools bond

93%

Constitutional Amendment 2 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +151,867 net votes from 33 countiesStatewide Yes +19.7, a 151,867 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

769,433 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	460,650	59.9%
No	308,783	40.1%
Total	769,433	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Bernalillo County	156,163	104,679	260,842	59.9%
Santa Fe County	42,899	28,756	71,655	59.9%
Doña Ana County	41,503	27,820	69,323	59.9%
Sandoval County	38,338	25,699	64,037	59.9%
San Juan County	25,626	17,178	42,804	59.9%
Valencia County	16,331	10,947	27,278	59.9%
McKinley County	12,943	8,676	21,619	59.9%
Otero County	12,249	8,210	20,459	59.9%
Eddy County	11,344	7,604	18,948	59.9%
Chaves County	11,120	7,454	18,574	59.9%
Lea County	10,309	6,910	17,219	59.9%
Taos County	8,674	5,815	14,489	59.9%
Rio Arriba County	8,246	5,527	13,773	59.9%
Curry County	7,581	5,082	12,663	59.9%
Grant County	7,167	4,804	11,971	59.9%
San Miguel County	6,054	4,058	10,112	59.9%
Los Alamos County	6,035	4,045	10,080	59.9%
Lincoln County	5,128	3,437	8,565	59.9%
Cibola County	4,695	3,147	7,842	59.9%
Luna County	4,040	2,708	6,748	59.9%
Socorro County	3,662	2,455	6,117	59.9%
Torrance County	3,500	2,346	5,846	59.9%
Roosevelt County	3,283	2,200	5,483	59.9%
Colfax County	2,974	1,994	4,968	59.9%
Sierra County	2,946	1,975	4,921	59.9%
Quay County	1,882	1,262	3,144	59.9%
Mora County	1,329	891	2,220	59.9%
Catron County	1,187	796	1,983	59.9%
Guadalupe County	990	664	1,654	59.9%
Hidalgo County	942	631	1,573	59.9%
Union County	871	584	1,455	59.9%
De Baca County	423	284	707	59.8%
Harding County	216	145	361	59.8%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Constitutional Amendment 2 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with New Mexico's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.nm.gov , sourcenm.com. All measures.