Ben Ray Luján is all but certain to win New Mexico's Senate seat.
Ben Ray Luján vs Larry Marker. The model has Luján ahead by 26.0 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
818,548 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Ray Luján D | 515,825 | 63.0% |
| Larry Marker R | 302,723 | 37.0% |
| Total | 818,548 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +34.1 and D +17.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | D +18.8 | |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 1,125 LV | 6d | D +16.053 to 37 |
| SurveyUSA for KOB 4 | 567 LV | 15d | D +18.054 to 36 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 516 LV | 48d | D +15.053 to 38 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 159,965 ballots cast so far in New Mexico, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
26 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Santa Fe New MexicanNewspapersource
- League of Conservation VotersEnvironmental groupsource
- Planned Parenthood Action FundReproductive rights groupsource
- Latino VictoryLatino political groupsource
- J Street PACPro Israel, pro peace PACsource
- Jewish Democratic Council of AmericaJewish Democratic groupsource
- Population Connection Action FundAdvocacy groupsource
- American Federation of Government EmployeesFederal employees unionsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Luján | Marker |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 58.5 | 41.5 |
| Women | 52% | 65.4 | 34.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 62.5 | 37.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 58.6 | 41.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 30% | 61.4 | 38.6 |
| 65+ | 36% | 64.7 | 35.3 |
| RaceWhite | 48% | 52.0 | 48.0 |
| Black | 2% | 85.2 | 14.8 |
| Latino | 39% | 70.0 | 30.0 |
| Asian and other | 11% | 73.7 | 26.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 22% | 45.7 | 54.3 |
| White women | 26% | 57.5 | 42.5 |
| Black men | 1% | 82.4 | 17.6 |
| Black women | 1% | 87.7 | 12.3 |
| Latino men | 19% | 67.3 | 32.7 |
| Latino women | 20% | 72.5 | 27.5 |
| All other races | 11% | 73.7 | 26.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
33 counties| County | Luján | Marker | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 514,780 | 303,749 | 20 | 818,548 | D +25.8 |
| Bernalillo County | 196,850 | 80,642 | 0 | 277,492 | D +41.9 |
| Santa Fe County | 63,322 | 12,906 | 0 | 76,228 | D +66.2 |
| Doña Ana County | 48,962 | 24,786 | 0 | 73,748 | D +32.6 |
| Sandoval County | 39,524 | 28,602 | 0 | 68,125 | D +16.0 |
| San Juan County | 20,186 | 25,350 | 0 | 45,536 | R +11.7 |
| Valencia County | 15,696 | 13,324 | 0 | 29,020 | D +8.0 |
| McKinley County | 17,234 | 5,764 | 0 | 22,998 | D +50.0 |
| Otero County | 9,825 | 11,940 | 0 | 21,765 | R +9.8 |
| Eddy County | 5,884 | 14,254 | 20 | 20,158 | R +41.6 |
| Chaves County | 7,252 | 12,508 | 0 | 19,760 | R +26.8 |
| Lea County | 4,671 | 13,647 | 0 | 18,318 | R +49.1 |
| Taos County | 12,847 | 2,567 | 0 | 15,414 | D +66.7 |
| Rio Arriba County | 10,749 | 3,903 | 0 | 14,652 | D +46.6 |
| Curry County | 5,035 | 8,436 | 0 | 13,471 | R +25.4 |
| Grant County | 8,093 | 4,643 | 0 | 12,736 | D +27.2 |
| San Miguel County | 8,219 | 2,538 | 0 | 10,757 | D +52.7 |
| Los Alamos County | 7,636 | 3,088 | 0 | 10,724 | D +42.5 |
| Lincoln County | 3,596 | 5,516 | 0 | 9,112 | R +21.2 |
| Cibola County | 5,194 | 3,149 | 0 | 8,343 | D +24.2 |
| Luna County | 3,663 | 3,515 | 0 | 7,178 | D +2.1 |
| Socorro County | 3,916 | 2,592 | 0 | 6,508 | D +20.5 |
| Torrance County | 2,391 | 3,829 | 0 | 6,220 | R +22.8 |
| Roosevelt County | 2,063 | 3,770 | 0 | 5,833 | R +29.1 |
| Colfax County | 2,879 | 2,406 | 0 | 5,285 | D +8.7 |
| Sierra County | 2,528 | 2,707 | 0 | 5,235 | R +3.3 |
| Quay County | 1,290 | 2,055 | 0 | 3,345 | R +22.8 |
| Mora County | 1,692 | 669 | 0 | 2,361 | D +43.1 |
| Catron County | 685 | 1,424 | 0 | 2,109 | R +34.5 |
| Guadalupe County | 1,152 | 608 | 0 | 1,760 | D +31.4 |
| Hidalgo County | 859 | 814 | 0 | 1,673 | D +3.4 |
| Union County | 490 | 1,058 | 0 | 1,548 | R +35.9 |
| De Baca County | 241 | 511 | 0 | 752 | R +34.5 |
| Harding County | 156 | 228 | 0 | 384 | R +17.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.