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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 forecast · Massachusetts Attorney General

Andrea Campbell is all but certain to win Massachusetts's attorney general race.

Andrea Campbell vs Michael Walsh, with Andrea Campbell running again. The model has Campbell ahead by 36.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +36.6Polls D +27.0Updated October 22, 2026
Andrea Campbell
Democrat
67.8%
1,937,232 projected votes
Michael Walsh
Republican
31.2%
892,201 projected votes
100%Campbell
0%Walsh
Campbell all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Campbell wins about 100 of 100

Massachusetts Attorney General by county

Barnstable CountyBerkshire CountyBristol CountyDukes CountyEssex CountyFranklin CountyHampden CountyHampshire CountyMiddlesex CountyNantucket CountyNorfolk CountyPlymouth CountySuffolk CountyWorcester CountyMiddlesexWorcesterEssexNorfolkSuffolkPlymouthBristolHampdenBarnstableHampshireBerkshireFranklin
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Middlesex County: Campbell +347,335Suffolk County: Campbell +182,882Norfolk County: Campbell +122,291Essex County: Campbell +98,728Worcester County: Campbell +62,883Plymouth County: Campbell +42,042Hampshire County: Campbell +38,121Barnstable County: Campbell +35,485Bristol County: Campbell +30,736Berkshire County: Campbell +29,470Hampden County: Campbell +28,563Franklin County: Campbell +17,441Dukes County: Campbell +6,448Nantucket County: Campbell +2,606
Campbell +1,045,031 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide D +36.6, a 1,045,031 vote marginWalsh +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected statewide vote

2,858,014 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Andrea Campbell D1,937,23267.8%
Michael Walsh R892,20131.2%
Other candidates28,5801.0%
Total2,858,014100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

14 counties
CountyCampbellWalshOtherTotalMargin
Statewide1,937,232892,20128,5812,858,014D +36.6
Middlesex County510,925163,5906,813681,328D +51.0
Worcester County199,079136,1963,387338,662D +18.6
Essex County210,785112,0573,261326,103D +30.3
Norfolk County218,96896,6773,189318,834D +38.4
Suffolk County221,00338,1212,618261,742D +69.9
Plymouth County140,05798,0152,406240,478D +17.5
Bristol County123,43892,7022,183218,323D +14.1
Hampden County97,22668,6631,675167,564D +17.1
Barnstable County79,35543,8701,245124,470D +28.5
Hampshire County55,41517,29473473,443D +51.9
Berkshire County42,67513,20556456,444D +52.2
Franklin County25,8908,44934734,686D +50.3
Dukes County8,2601,81210110,173D +63.4
Nantucket County4,1561,550585,764D +45.2

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +44.3D +28.9D +36.6

80 percent of simulations fall between D +44.3 and D +28.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorD +30.8
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +43.7
Blend of every legD +36.2
With incumbency and primary unityD +39.1
With polls, 19% weightD +36.6

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +44.3 and D +28.9.

Polls of the race

1 poll
EvenD+10D+20D+3010/110/810/1510/22Campbell aheadWalsh aheadUMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov, 800, D +24.0, 10 days agoD +24.0poll trendD +27.0average
PollsterSampleEndedCampbellWalshMargin
UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov800 RV2026-10-125531D +24.0