Barry Moore is all but certain to win Alabama's Senate seat.
Everett Wess vs Barry Moore, an open seat. The model has Moore ahead by 25.7 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,715,904 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Barry Moore R | 1,066,587 | 62.2% |
| Everett Wess D | 624,951 | 36.4% |
| Other / write-in O | 24,194 | 1.4% |
| Total | 1,715,904 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +17.6 and R +33.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +22.1 | |
| The Alabama Poll | 600 LV | 0d | R +21.235 to 56.2 |
| Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R) | 800 RV | 20d | R +21.033 to 54 |
| yes. every kid. | 601 LV | 96d | R +15.032 to 47 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Alabama has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
22 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Alabama Democratic ConferenceBlack Democratic political caucussource
- Alabama New South Allianceprogressive political organizationsource
- Alabama AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Alabama New South Coalition Jefferson County ChapterPolitical organizationsource
- Cullman County DemocratsCounty partysource
- Shelby County DemocratsCounty party, Alabamasource
- JusticeCare Alliance PACPACsource
- Jim JordanU.S. Representative, OH-04source
- Ted BuddU.S. Senator from North Carolinasource
- Steve DainesU.S. Senator from Montanasource
- Bernie MorenoU.S. Senator from Ohiosource
- Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
- Cynthia LummisU.S. Senator from Wyomingsource
- JD VanceVice Presidentsource
- John ThuneSenate Majority Leadersource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Wess | Moore |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 32.7 | 65.8 |
| Women | 52% | 39.4 | 59.2 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 36.3 | 62.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 35.4 | 63.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 35.6 | 62.9 |
| 65+ | 34% | 37.3 | 61.4 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 20.0 | 78.6 |
| Black | 25% | 78.1 | 20.6 |
| Latino | 2% | 41.8 | 56.6 |
| Asian and other | 3% | 49.5 | 48.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 16.0 | 82.5 |
| White women | 36% | 23.6 | 75.0 |
| Black men | 12% | 74.4 | 24.3 |
| Black women | 13% | 81.5 | 17.2 |
| Latino men | 1% | 40.6 | 57.8 |
| Latino women | 1% | 43.0 | 55.5 |
| All other races | 3% | 49.5 | 48.7 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Wess | Moore | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 623,212 | 1,068,326 | 24,366 | 1,715,904 | R +25.9 |
| Jefferson County | 141,705 | 89,131 | 3,515 | 234,351 | D +22.5 |
| Madison County | 64,386 | 77,328 | 3,484 | 145,198 | R +8.9 |
| Mobile County | 54,676 | 77,311 | 1,603 | 133,590 | R +16.9 |
| Baldwin County | 16,423 | 70,378 | 2,043 | 88,844 | R +60.7 |
| Shelby County | 25,419 | 55,645 | 1,739 | 82,803 | R +36.4 |
| Montgomery County | 48,591 | 24,476 | 738 | 73,805 | D +32.7 |
| Tuscaloosa County | 30,110 | 36,447 | 469 | 67,026 | R +9.5 |
| Lee County | 19,891 | 33,221 | 919 | 54,031 | R +24.6 |
| Morgan County | 9,101 | 29,501 | 707 | 39,309 | R +52.0 |
| Limestone County | 9,981 | 27,433 | 647 | 38,061 | R +45.8 |
| Calhoun County | 10,784 | 25,311 | 475 | 36,570 | R +39.7 |
| Houston County | 8,914 | 25,235 | 380 | 34,529 | R +47.3 |
| Etowah County | 8,632 | 23,463 | 622 | 32,717 | R +45.3 |
| St. Clair County | 5,594 | 26,241 | 518 | 32,353 | R +63.8 |
| Lauderdale County | 7,933 | 23,698 | 223 | 31,854 | R +49.6 |
| Elmore County | 6,922 | 24,047 | 376 | 31,345 | R +54.6 |
| Cullman County | 3,255 | 27,470 | 436 | 31,161 | R +77.8 |
| Marshall County | 4,070 | 24,461 | 553 | 29,084 | R +70.1 |
| Talladega County | 9,597 | 16,108 | 259 | 25,964 | R +25.1 |
| Walker County | 3,272 | 18,107 | 303 | 21,682 | R +68.5 |
| Autauga County | 5,075 | 15,819 | 297 | 21,191 | R +50.7 |
| DeKalb County | 2,665 | 18,063 | 315 | 21,043 | R +73.2 |
| Colbert County | 6,069 | 13,957 | 223 | 20,249 | R +39.0 |
| Blount County | 2,196 | 17,361 | 238 | 19,795 | R +76.5 |
| Coffee County | 2,894 | 14,193 | 242 | 17,329 | R +65.2 |
| Jackson County | 2,738 | 13,917 | 185 | 16,840 | R +66.4 |
| Russell County | 7,971 | 7,703 | 110 | 15,784 | D +1.6 |
| Tallapoosa County | 4,189 | 11,237 | 156 | 15,582 | R +45.3 |
| Dale County | 3,484 | 11,321 | 164 | 14,969 | R +52.4 |
| Chilton County | 2,270 | 12,156 | 160 | 14,586 | R +67.8 |
| Covington County | 1,730 | 11,523 | 107 | 13,360 | R +73.3 |
| Dallas County | 9,140 | 4,080 | 94 | 13,314 | D +37.9 |
| Lawrence County | 2,861 | 9,332 | 98 | 12,291 | R +52.6 |
| Escambia County | 3,310 | 8,317 | 106 | 11,733 | R +42.7 |
| Chambers County | 4,202 | 6,787 | 89 | 11,078 | R +23.3 |
| Pike County | 3,772 | 6,660 | 105 | 10,537 | R +27.4 |
| Marion County | 1,052 | 8,959 | 90 | 10,101 | R +78.2 |
| Clarke County | 4,438 | 5,246 | 69 | 9,753 | R +8.2 |
| Geneva County | 1,056 | 8,507 | 117 | 9,680 | R +77.0 |
| Cherokee County | 1,025 | 8,216 | 140 | 9,381 | R +76.7 |
| Franklin County | 1,302 | 7,730 | 73 | 9,105 | R +70.7 |
| Winston County | 681 | 7,489 | 82 | 8,252 | R +82.6 |
| Randolph County | 1,378 | 6,655 | 57 | 8,090 | R +65.3 |
| Barbour County | 3,327 | 4,562 | 56 | 7,945 | R +15.5 |
| Marengo County | 4,104 | 3,765 | 56 | 7,925 | D +4.3 |
| Monroe County | 3,257 | 4,556 | 47 | 7,860 | R +16.5 |
| Henry County | 1,783 | 5,683 | 45 | 7,511 | R +51.9 |
| Pickens County | 3,039 | 4,173 | 51 | 7,263 | R +15.6 |
| Bibb County | 1,574 | 5,445 | 78 | 7,097 | R +54.6 |
| Macon County | 5,767 | 1,111 | 48 | 6,926 | D +67.2 |
| Butler County | 2,841 | 3,998 | 48 | 6,887 | R +16.7 |
| Washington County | 1,489 | 5,033 | 53 | 6,575 | R +53.8 |
| Fayette County | 944 | 5,329 | 57 | 6,330 | R +69.2 |
| Hale County | 3,463 | 2,364 | 41 | 5,868 | D +18.6 |
| Cleburne County | 371 | 5,173 | 45 | 5,589 | R +85.9 |
| Choctaw County | 2,106 | 3,357 | 39 | 5,502 | R +22.8 |
| Crenshaw County | 1,129 | 3,973 | 62 | 5,164 | R +55.1 |
| Lamar County | 655 | 4,418 | 35 | 5,108 | R +73.7 |
| Clay County | 842 | 4,124 | 50 | 5,016 | R +65.4 |
| Conecuh County | 2,114 | 2,741 | 29 | 4,884 | R +12.9 |
| Lowndes County | 3,491 | 1,080 | 32 | 4,603 | D +52.4 |
| Sumter County | 3,502 | 1,053 | 32 | 4,587 | D +53.4 |
| Wilcox County | 3,018 | 1,267 | 30 | 4,315 | D +40.6 |
| Coosa County | 1,411 | 2,777 | 34 | 4,222 | R +32.4 |
| Perry County | 2,769 | 839 | 26 | 3,634 | D +53.1 |
| Bullock County | 2,645 | 734 | 23 | 3,402 | D +56.3 |
| Greene County | 2,817 | 531 | 23 | 3,371 | D +67.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.