2026 ballot measure forecast
Georgia Amendment 2
Nonpartisan elections for all probate judges
Requires all probate court judges to be elected in nonpartisan elections. The forecast has Yes at 59.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 83% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
83%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
59.9%80% range 46 to 72
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 59.9% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 59.9% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
The campaign
HR 251; no organized campaign reported.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +866,188 net votes from 159 countiesStatewide Yes +19.7, a 866,188 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
4,388,518 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2,627,353 | 59.9% |
| No | 1,761,165 | 40.1% |
| Total | 4,388,518 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton County | 278,874 | 186,935 | 465,809 | 59.9% |
| Gwinnett County | 203,439 | 136,369 | 339,808 | 59.9% |
| Cobb County | 199,768 | 133,908 | 333,676 | 59.9% |
| DeKalb County | 195,136 | 130,803 | 325,939 | 59.9% |
| Cherokee County | 76,312 | 51,153 | 127,465 | 59.9% |
| Chatham County | 72,306 | 48,468 | 120,774 | 59.9% |
| Forsyth County | 65,069 | 43,617 | 108,686 | 59.9% |
| Henry County | 63,627 | 42,650 | 106,277 | 59.9% |
| Clayton County | 61,391 | 41,152 | 102,543 | 59.9% |
| Hall County | 48,101 | 32,243 | 80,344 | 59.9% |
| Richmond County | 45,308 | 30,371 | 75,679 | 59.9% |
| Paulding County | 44,363 | 29,737 | 74,100 | 59.9% |
| Muscogee County | 42,993 | 28,819 | 71,812 | 59.9% |
| Columbia County | 41,853 | 28,055 | 69,908 | 59.9% |
| Coweta County | 40,896 | 27,414 | 68,310 | 59.9% |
| Houston County | 40,046 | 26,844 | 66,890 | 59.9% |
| Fayette County | 36,526 | 24,484 | 61,010 | 59.9% |
| Bibb County | 36,366 | 24,377 | 60,743 | 59.9% |
| Douglas County | 35,485 | 23,786 | 59,271 | 59.9% |
| Clarke County | 29,293 | 19,636 | 48,929 | 59.9% |
| Carroll County | 29,103 | 19,509 | 48,612 | 59.9% |
| Newton County | 28,843 | 19,334 | 48,177 | 59.9% |
| Walton County | 27,506 | 18,438 | 45,944 | 59.9% |
| Bartow County | 26,949 | 18,065 | 45,014 | 59.9% |
| Lowndes County | 24,803 | 16,626 | 41,429 | 59.9% |
| Rockdale County | 23,457 | 15,723 | 39,180 | 59.9% |
| Floyd County | 21,997 | 14,745 | 36,742 | 59.9% |
| Glynn County | 21,807 | 14,618 | 36,425 | 59.9% |
| Jackson County | 21,384 | 14,334 | 35,718 | 59.9% |
| Barrow County | 20,219 | 13,553 | 33,772 | 59.9% |
| Whitfield County | 19,047 | 12,768 | 31,815 | 59.9% |
| Dougherty County | 18,543 | 12,430 | 30,973 | 59.9% |
| Bulloch County | 17,166 | 11,506 | 28,672 | 59.9% |
| Effingham County | 16,825 | 11,278 | 28,103 | 59.9% |
| Catoosa County | 16,712 | 11,202 | 27,914 | 59.9% |
| Spalding County | 16,371 | 10,974 | 27,345 | 59.9% |
| Troup County | 15,694 | 10,520 | 26,214 | 59.9% |
| Walker County | 15,602 | 10,458 | 26,060 | 59.9% |
| Oconee County | 13,020 | 8,728 | 21,748 | 59.9% |
| Gordon County | 12,980 | 8,701 | 21,681 | 59.9% |
| Camden County | 12,664 | 8,489 | 21,153 | 59.9% |
| Liberty County | 12,034 | 8,066 | 20,100 | 59.9% |
| Laurens County | 11,957 | 8,015 | 19,972 | 59.9% |
| Bryan County | 11,418 | 7,654 | 19,072 | 59.9% |
| Habersham County | 11,248 | 7,540 | 18,788 | 59.9% |
| Thomas County | 11,191 | 7,501 | 18,692 | 59.9% |
| Harris County | 10,807 | 7,244 | 18,051 | 59.9% |
| Baldwin County | 10,168 | 6,816 | 16,984 | 59.9% |
| Pickens County | 9,851 | 6,603 | 16,454 | 59.9% |
| Polk County | 9,254 | 6,203 | 15,457 | 59.9% |
| Gilmer County | 8,998 | 6,031 | 15,029 | 59.9% |
| Dawson County | 8,851 | 5,933 | 14,784 | 59.9% |
| Lumpkin County | 8,739 | 5,858 | 14,597 | 59.9% |
| Tift County | 8,732 | 5,853 | 14,585 | 59.9% |
| Union County | 8,726 | 5,849 | 14,575 | 59.9% |
| Lee County | 8,704 | 5,834 | 14,538 | 59.9% |
| Monroe County | 8,681 | 5,819 | 14,500 | 59.9% |
| Colquitt County | 8,666 | 5,809 | 14,475 | 59.9% |
| Murray County | 8,308 | 5,569 | 13,877 | 59.9% |
| Coffee County | 8,250 | 5,530 | 13,780 | 59.9% |
| White County | 8,145 | 5,460 | 13,605 | 59.9% |
| Madison County | 8,086 | 5,420 | 13,506 | 59.9% |
| Fannin County | 7,907 | 5,300 | 13,207 | 59.9% |
| Jones County | 7,839 | 5,255 | 13,094 | 59.9% |
| Haralson County | 7,732 | 5,183 | 12,915 | 59.9% |
| Ware County | 7,400 | 4,960 | 12,360 | 59.9% |
| Hart County | 6,997 | 4,690 | 11,687 | 59.9% |
| Peach County | 6,788 | 4,550 | 11,338 | 59.9% |
| Wayne County | 6,766 | 4,535 | 11,301 | 59.9% |
| Upson County | 6,732 | 4,513 | 11,245 | 59.9% |
| Butts County | 6,534 | 4,380 | 10,914 | 59.9% |
| Sumter County | 6,459 | 4,330 | 10,789 | 59.9% |
| Putnam County | 6,454 | 4,326 | 10,780 | 59.9% |
| Stephens County | 6,425 | 4,306 | 10,731 | 59.9% |
| Greene County | 6,419 | 4,303 | 10,722 | 59.9% |
| Morgan County | 6,328 | 4,242 | 10,570 | 59.9% |
| Decatur County | 6,010 | 4,028 | 10,038 | 59.9% |
| Franklin County | 5,905 | 3,958 | 9,863 | 59.9% |
| Pike County | 5,798 | 3,887 | 9,685 | 59.9% |
| Meriwether County | 5,739 | 3,847 | 9,586 | 59.9% |
| Burke County | 5,638 | 3,779 | 9,417 | 59.9% |
| Toombs County | 5,609 | 3,760 | 9,369 | 59.9% |
| Grady County | 5,520 | 3,700 | 9,220 | 59.9% |
| McDuffie County | 5,323 | 3,568 | 8,891 | 59.9% |
| Chattooga County | 5,316 | 3,563 | 8,879 | 59.9% |
| Rabun County | 5,118 | 3,431 | 8,549 | 59.9% |
| Lamar County | 5,089 | 3,411 | 8,500 | 59.9% |
| Emanuel County | 5,007 | 3,357 | 8,364 | 59.9% |
| Washington County | 4,985 | 3,342 | 8,327 | 59.9% |
| Banks County | 4,902 | 3,286 | 8,188 | 59.9% |
| Elbert County | 4,815 | 3,228 | 8,043 | 59.9% |
| Pierce County | 4,814 | 3,227 | 8,041 | 59.9% |
| Worth County | 4,795 | 3,214 | 8,009 | 59.9% |
| Mitchell County | 4,674 | 3,133 | 7,807 | 59.9% |
| Tattnall County | 4,639 | 3,110 | 7,749 | 59.9% |
| Dodge County | 4,463 | 2,992 | 7,455 | 59.9% |
| Towns County | 4,368 | 2,928 | 7,296 | 59.9% |
| Jasper County | 4,315 | 2,893 | 7,208 | 59.9% |
| Oglethorpe County | 4,290 | 2,876 | 7,166 | 59.9% |
| Appling County | 4,278 | 2,868 | 7,146 | 59.9% |
| Crisp County | 4,265 | 2,859 | 7,124 | 59.9% |
| Brantley County | 4,181 | 2,802 | 6,983 | 59.9% |
| Berrien County | 4,088 | 2,740 | 6,828 | 59.9% |
| Dade County | 3,963 | 2,656 | 6,619 | 59.9% |
| Jefferson County | 3,892 | 2,609 | 6,501 | 59.9% |
| Brooks County | 3,755 | 2,517 | 6,272 | 59.9% |
| Cook County | 3,733 | 2,503 | 6,236 | 59.9% |
| McIntosh County | 3,539 | 2,372 | 5,911 | 59.9% |
| Screven County | 3,475 | 2,329 | 5,804 | 59.9% |
| Ben Hill County | 3,466 | 2,323 | 5,789 | 59.9% |
| Long County | 3,337 | 2,237 | 5,574 | 59.9% |
| Crawford County | 3,150 | 2,112 | 5,262 | 59.9% |
| Bleckley County | 3,118 | 2,090 | 5,208 | 59.9% |
| Jeff Davis County | 3,012 | 2,019 | 5,031 | 59.9% |
| Heard County | 2,959 | 1,983 | 4,942 | 59.9% |
| Wilkes County | 2,592 | 1,737 | 4,329 | 59.9% |
| Macon County | 2,584 | 1,732 | 4,316 | 59.9% |
| Early County | 2,521 | 1,690 | 4,211 | 59.9% |
| Charlton County | 2,474 | 1,659 | 4,133 | 59.9% |
| Wilkinson County | 2,472 | 1,657 | 4,129 | 59.9% |
| Bacon County | 2,459 | 1,648 | 4,107 | 59.9% |
| Lincoln County | 2,430 | 1,629 | 4,059 | 59.9% |
| Telfair County | 2,343 | 1,571 | 3,914 | 59.9% |
| Candler County | 2,342 | 1,570 | 3,912 | 59.9% |
| Dooly County | 2,294 | 1,538 | 3,832 | 59.9% |
| Hancock County | 2,269 | 1,521 | 3,790 | 59.9% |
| Terrell County | 2,269 | 1,521 | 3,790 | 59.9% |
| Pulaski County | 2,267 | 1,519 | 3,786 | 59.9% |
| Irwin County | 2,220 | 1,488 | 3,708 | 59.9% |
| Twiggs County | 2,213 | 1,484 | 3,697 | 59.9% |
| Evans County | 2,199 | 1,474 | 3,673 | 59.9% |
| Johnson County | 2,157 | 1,446 | 3,603 | 59.9% |
| Seminole County | 2,071 | 1,388 | 3,459 | 59.9% |
| Montgomery County | 2,068 | 1,386 | 3,454 | 59.9% |
| Taylor County | 2,038 | 1,366 | 3,404 | 59.9% |
| Turner County | 1,994 | 1,337 | 3,331 | 59.9% |
| Lanier County | 1,924 | 1,290 | 3,214 | 59.9% |
| Jenkins County | 1,844 | 1,236 | 3,080 | 59.9% |
| Wilcox County | 1,827 | 1,225 | 3,052 | 59.9% |
| Marion County | 1,822 | 1,221 | 3,043 | 59.9% |
| Talbot County | 1,738 | 1,165 | 2,903 | 59.9% |
| Treutlen County | 1,574 | 1,055 | 2,629 | 59.9% |
| Randolph County | 1,568 | 1,051 | 2,619 | 59.9% |
| Atkinson County | 1,514 | 1,015 | 2,529 | 59.9% |
| Clinch County | 1,429 | 958 | 2,387 | 59.9% |
| Miller County | 1,380 | 925 | 2,305 | 59.9% |
| Wheeler County | 1,346 | 902 | 2,248 | 59.9% |
| Warren County | 1,340 | 898 | 2,238 | 59.9% |
| Schley County | 1,185 | 794 | 1,979 | 59.9% |
| Calhoun County | 1,160 | 777 | 1,937 | 59.9% |
| Stewart County | 1,097 | 736 | 1,833 | 59.8% |
| Glascock County | 815 | 546 | 1,361 | 59.9% |
| Chattahoochee County | 806 | 541 | 1,347 | 59.8% |
| Baker County | 759 | 509 | 1,268 | 59.9% |
| Clay County | 736 | 493 | 1,229 | 59.9% |
| Echols County | 702 | 470 | 1,172 | 59.9% |
| Webster County | 683 | 458 | 1,141 | 59.9% |
| Quitman County | 590 | 396 | 986 | 59.8% |
| Taliaferro County | 457 | 306 | 763 | 59.9% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 2 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Georgia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.ga.gov, news4jax.com, theballotbrief.com. All measures.