2026 forecast · Texas Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8
Brett Busby is favored to win Texas's justice, supreme court, place 8 race.
Gisela Triana vs Brett Busby, with Brett Busby running again. The model has Busby ahead by 4.5 points, with a 80 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +4.5Polls R +15.6Updated October 22, 2026
Gisela Triana
Democrat
46.3%
4,625,680 projected votes
Brett Busby
Republican
50.8%
5,075,834 projected votes
80%Busby
20%Triana
Busby favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Busby wins about 80 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Triana +1,236,861 net votes from 22 countiesStatewide R +4.5, a 450,161 vote marginBusby +1,687,022 net votes from 232 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Busby R | 5,075,834 | 50.8% |
| Gisela Triana D | 4,625,680 | 46.3% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Triana | Busby | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,625,671 | 5,075,832 | 297,413 | 9,998,916 | R +4.5 |
| Harris County | 796,531 | 546,647 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +18.1 |
| Dallas County | 521,331 | 233,670 | 23,145 | 778,146 | D +37.0 |
| Tarrant County | 359,314 | 339,631 | 21,427 | 720,372 | D +2.7 |
| Bexar County | 411,196 | 253,429 | 20,374 | 684,999 | D +23.0 |
| Travis County | 416,519 | 118,048 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +54.2 |
| Collin County | 206,350 | 218,814 | 13,034 | 438,198 | R +2.8 |
| Denton County | 169,890 | 199,535 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +7.8 |
| Fort Bend County | 164,879 | 133,008 | 9,131 | 307,018 | D +10.4 |
| Williamson County | 137,298 | 121,062 | 7,921 | 266,281 | D +6.1 |
| Montgomery County | 66,220 | 179,195 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +44.7 |
| El Paso County | 152,759 | 72,555 | 6,908 | 232,222 | D +34.5 |
| Hidalgo County | 114,384 | 75,520 | 5,822 | 195,726 | D +19.9 |
| Brazoria County | 52,649 | 79,030 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +19.4 |
| Galveston County | 49,689 | 81,189 | 4,012 | 134,890 | R +23.4 |
| Bell County | 49,378 | 61,901 | 3,411 | 114,690 | R +10.9 |
| Nueces County | 53,025 | 56,202 | 3,348 | 112,575 | R +2.8 |
| Hays County | 61,460 | 44,951 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +15.1 |
| Lubbock County | 33,446 | 72,019 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +35.5 |
| Cameron County | 58,396 | 44,481 | 3,154 | 106,031 | D +13.1 |
| Smith County | 23,490 | 63,888 | 2,679 | 90,057 | R +44.9 |
| McLennan County | 30,994 | 55,098 | 2,638 | 88,730 | R +27.2 |
| Comal County | 22,820 | 61,017 | 2,570 | 86,407 | R +44.2 |
| Ellis County | 24,921 | 53,801 | 2,412 | 81,134 | R +35.6 |
| Brazos County | 32,722 | 45,678 | 2,402 | 80,802 | R +16.0 |
| Jefferson County | 36,055 | 38,632 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +3.4 |
| Parker County | 11,399 | 60,290 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +66.2 |
| Guadalupe County | 24,565 | 43,605 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +27.1 |
| Johnson County | 15,459 | 50,631 | 2,026 | 68,116 | R +51.6 |
| Webb County | 37,002 | 21,378 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +26.0 |
| Randall County | 10,857 | 44,793 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +59.2 |
| Kaufman County | 17,579 | 36,260 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +33.7 |
| Grayson County | 11,504 | 41,262 | 1,618 | 54,384 | R +54.7 |
| Rockwall County | 14,123 | 35,479 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +41.8 |
| Midland County | 9,592 | 39,778 | 1,513 | 50,883 | R +59.3 |
| Taylor County | 11,875 | 35,677 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +48.6 |
| Gregg County | 11,250 | 28,229 | 1,210 | 40,689 | R +41.7 |
| Wichita County | 11,783 | 27,265 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +38.5 |
| Tom Green County | 10,360 | 28,379 | 1,188 | 39,927 | R +45.1 |
| Hunt County | 7,594 | 29,694 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +57.5 |
| Ector County | 8,507 | 26,446 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +49.8 |
| Bastrop County | 14,850 | 19,330 | 1,048 | 35,228 | R +12.7 |
| Henderson County | 5,490 | 26,919 | 993 | 33,402 | R +64.2 |
| Bowie County | 8,378 | 22,951 | 961 | 32,290 | R +45.1 |
| Hood County | 5,186 | 24,996 | 925 | 31,107 | R +63.7 |
| Victoria County | 8,538 | 21,397 | 918 | 30,853 | R +41.7 |
| Orange County | 4,675 | 25,118 | 913 | 30,706 | R +66.6 |
| Wise County | 4,007 | 25,737 | 912 | 30,656 | R +70.9 |
| Angelina County | 6,998 | 21,882 | 886 | 29,766 | R +50.0 |
| Potter County | 8,479 | 20,170 | 879 | 29,528 | R +39.6 |
| Liberty County | 4,498 | 21,053 | 784 | 26,335 | R +62.9 |
| Harrison County | 5,940 | 18,933 | 763 | 25,636 | R +50.7 |
| Kerr County | 5,378 | 18,974 | 747 | 25,099 | R +54.2 |
| Kendall County | 4,925 | 19,148 | 738 | 24,811 | R +57.3 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,751 | 20,802 | 722 | 24,275 | R +74.4 |
| Walker County | 7,214 | 16,253 | 719 | 24,186 | R +37.4 |
| Burnet County | 5,070 | 18,129 | 711 | 23,910 | R +54.6 |
| Hardin County | 2,579 | 20,202 | 699 | 23,480 | R +75.0 |
| Nacogdoches County | 6,833 | 15,245 | 677 | 22,755 | R +37.0 |
| Coryell County | 6,753 | 15,266 | 675 | 22,694 | R +37.5 |
| Wilson County | 5,082 | 16,806 | 670 | 22,558 | R +52.0 |
| San Patricio County | 7,382 | 14,263 | 664 | 22,309 | R +30.9 |
| Waller County | 7,425 | 13,509 | 642 | 21,576 | R +28.2 |
| Wood County | 2,774 | 17,682 | 627 | 21,083 | R +70.7 |
| Medina County | 5,632 | 14,563 | 620 | 20,815 | R +42.9 |
| Polk County | 3,993 | 15,792 | 607 | 20,392 | R +57.9 |
| Chambers County | 3,011 | 15,815 | 578 | 19,404 | R +66.0 |
| Rusk County | 3,520 | 14,782 | 561 | 18,863 | R +59.7 |
| Lamar County | 3,415 | 14,618 | 553 | 18,586 | R +60.3 |
| Anderson County | 3,316 | 14,351 | 541 | 18,208 | R +60.6 |
| Cherokee County | 3,008 | 14,149 | 527 | 17,684 | R +63.0 |
| Cooke County | 2,511 | 14,451 | 520 | 17,482 | R +68.3 |
| Navarro County | 3,923 | 12,780 | 513 | 17,216 | R +51.5 |
| Upshur County | 2,269 | 14,047 | 500 | 16,816 | R +70.0 |
| Erath County | 2,481 | 13,125 | 478 | 16,084 | R +66.2 |
| Washington County | 3,220 | 12,218 | 473 | 15,911 | R +56.5 |
| Atascosa County | 4,624 | 10,729 | 471 | 15,824 | R +38.6 |
| Brown County | 1,728 | 12,624 | 440 | 14,792 | R +73.7 |
| Caldwell County | 6,559 | 7,531 | 432 | 14,522 | R +6.7 |
| Gillespie County | 2,619 | 11,430 | 430 | 14,479 | R +60.9 |
| Wharton County | 3,401 | 10,609 | 430 | 14,440 | R +49.9 |
| Starr County | 8,298 | 5,629 | 427 | 14,354 | D +18.6 |
| Hopkins County | 2,564 | 11,289 | 425 | 14,278 | R +61.1 |
| Fannin County | 2,027 | 11,568 | 417 | 14,012 | R +68.1 |
| Hill County | 2,306 | 11,274 | 416 | 13,996 | R +64.1 |
| Jasper County | 2,001 | 10,936 | 397 | 13,334 | R +67.0 |
| Maverick County | 7,196 | 5,597 | 393 | 13,186 | D +12.1 |
| Austin County | 2,165 | 10,387 | 385 | 12,937 | R +63.6 |
| Val Verde County | 5,419 | 6,997 | 380 | 12,796 | R +12.3 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,573 | 6,148 | 359 | 12,080 | R +4.8 |
| Llano County | 2,204 | 9,498 | 358 | 12,060 | R +60.5 |
| Cass County | 1,882 | 9,663 | 355 | 11,900 | R +65.4 |
| Matagorda County | 2,842 | 8,586 | 350 | 11,778 | R +48.8 |
| Grimes County | 2,026 | 9,312 | 348 | 11,686 | R +62.3 |
| Fayette County | 2,028 | 9,279 | 347 | 11,654 | R +62.2 |
| Bandera County | 1,977 | 9,261 | 344 | 11,582 | R +62.9 |
| Aransas County | 2,285 | 8,738 | 338 | 11,361 | R +56.8 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,593 | 9,375 | 337 | 11,305 | R +68.8 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,885 | 8,894 | 331 | 11,110 | R +63.1 |
| Milam County | 2,056 | 7,396 | 290 | 9,742 | R +54.8 |
| Lampasas County | 1,777 | 7,553 | 286 | 9,616 | R +60.1 |
| Panola County | 1,467 | 7,860 | 286 | 9,613 | R +66.5 |
| Kleberg County | 4,476 | 4,801 | 283 | 9,560 | R +3.4 |
| Montague County | 876 | 8,059 | 274 | 9,209 | R +78.0 |
| Lavaca County | 986 | 7,863 | 271 | 9,120 | R +75.4 |
| Titus County | 1,875 | 6,804 | 267 | 8,946 | R +55.1 |
| Uvalde County | 3,260 | 5,321 | 263 | 8,844 | R +23.3 |
| Howard County | 1,673 | 6,762 | 259 | 8,694 | R +58.5 |
| Bee County | 2,747 | 5,629 | 257 | 8,633 | R +33.4 |
| Colorado County | 1,696 | 6,656 | 257 | 8,609 | R +57.6 |
| Hale County | 1,661 | 6,548 | 252 | 8,461 | R +57.8 |
| Shelby County | 1,386 | 6,814 | 250 | 8,450 | R +64.2 |
| Houston County | 1,710 | 6,422 | 250 | 8,382 | R +56.2 |
| Tyler County | 1,010 | 7,120 | 249 | 8,379 | R +72.9 |
| Bosque County | 1,302 | 6,767 | 247 | 8,316 | R +65.7 |
| Limestone County | 1,702 | 6,093 | 238 | 8,033 | R +54.7 |
| Burleson County | 1,248 | 6,357 | 233 | 7,838 | R +65.2 |
| Freestone County | 1,164 | 6,388 | 231 | 7,783 | R +67.1 |
| Leon County | 706 | 6,706 | 228 | 7,640 | R +78.5 |
| Lee County | 1,307 | 5,723 | 216 | 7,246 | R +61.0 |
| Eastland County | 763 | 6,243 | 216 | 7,222 | R +75.9 |
| Young County | 766 | 6,224 | 214 | 7,204 | R +75.8 |
| Hutchinson County | 684 | 6,300 | 214 | 7,198 | R +78.0 |
| Blanco County | 1,591 | 5,300 | 211 | 7,102 | R +52.2 |
| DeWitt County | 1,129 | 5,738 | 211 | 7,078 | R +65.1 |
| Robertson County | 1,648 | 5,071 | 206 | 6,925 | R +49.4 |
| Calhoun County | 1,647 | 5,014 | 203 | 6,864 | R +49.0 |
| Hockley County | 1,080 | 5,558 | 204 | 6,842 | R +65.5 |
| Gray County | 587 | 5,988 | 202 | 6,777 | R +79.7 |
| Gonzales County | 1,362 | 5,062 | 197 | 6,621 | R +55.9 |
| Jones County | 836 | 5,422 | 192 | 6,450 | R +71.1 |
| Trinity County | 986 | 5,095 | 187 | 6,268 | R +65.5 |
| Callahan County | 573 | 5,317 | 181 | 6,071 | R +78.1 |
| Falls County | 1,508 | 4,041 | 171 | 5,720 | R +44.3 |
| Rains County | 694 | 4,821 | 169 | 5,684 | R +72.6 |
| Comanche County | 672 | 4,745 | 166 | 5,583 | R +73.0 |
| Jackson County | 754 | 4,600 | 164 | 5,518 | R +69.7 |
| Willacy County | 3,008 | 2,178 | 159 | 5,345 | D +15.5 |
| Gaines County | 382 | 4,627 | 153 | 5,162 | R +82.2 |
| Scurry County | 603 | 4,342 | 152 | 5,097 | R +73.3 |
| Clay County | 486 | 4,415 | 150 | 5,051 | R +77.8 |
| Newton County | 833 | 4,047 | 150 | 5,030 | R +63.9 |
| Andrews County | 609 | 4,242 | 148 | 4,999 | R +72.7 |
| Red River County | 919 | 3,874 | 147 | 4,940 | R +59.8 |
| Sabine County | 473 | 4,216 | 145 | 4,834 | R +77.4 |
| Karnes County | 1,030 | 3,581 | 141 | 4,752 | R +53.7 |
| Frio County | 2,266 | 2,324 | 140 | 4,730 | R +1.2 |
| Madison County | 788 | 3,801 | 140 | 4,729 | R +63.7 |
| Morris County | 1,125 | 3,401 | 138 | 4,664 | R +48.8 |
| Nolan County | 865 | 3,638 | 138 | 4,641 | R +59.7 |
| Moore County | 710 | 3,761 | 138 | 4,609 | R +66.2 |
| Camp County | 993 | 3,439 | 136 | 4,568 | R +53.6 |
| Franklin County | 637 | 3,755 | 134 | 4,526 | R +68.9 |
| Live Oak County | 633 | 3,719 | 133 | 4,485 | R +68.8 |
| Somervell County | 671 | 3,672 | 133 | 4,476 | R +67.0 |
| Archer County | 382 | 3,796 | 128 | 4,306 | R +79.3 |
| Brewster County | 2,056 | 2,064 | 126 | 4,246 | R +0.2 |
| Pecos County | 1,236 | 2,804 | 124 | 4,164 | R +37.6 |
| Wilbarger County | 750 | 3,163 | 119 | 4,032 | R +59.8 |
| Zapata County | 2,104 | 1,799 | 119 | 4,022 | D +7.6 |
| Marion County | 931 | 2,966 | 120 | 4,017 | R +50.6 |
| Deaf Smith County | 902 | 2,935 | 117 | 3,954 | R +51.4 |
| Duval County | 2,237 | 1,584 | 117 | 3,938 | D +16.6 |
| Hamilton County | 521 | 3,208 | 115 | 3,844 | R +69.9 |
| Lamb County | 606 | 2,985 | 110 | 3,701 | R +64.3 |
| Runnels County | 367 | 3,183 | 110 | 3,660 | R +77.0 |
| Coleman County | 335 | 3,165 | 108 | 3,608 | R +78.4 |
| Goliad County | 694 | 2,728 | 104 | 3,526 | R +57.7 |
| Jack County | 265 | 3,148 | 105 | 3,518 | R +82.0 |
| Stephens County | 259 | 2,992 | 100 | 3,351 | R +81.6 |
| San Augustine County | 683 | 2,515 | 98 | 3,296 | R +55.6 |
| Dawson County | 601 | 2,524 | 95 | 3,220 | R +59.7 |
| Ward County | 555 | 2,513 | 94 | 3,162 | R +61.9 |
| Terry County | 519 | 2,530 | 93 | 3,142 | R +64.0 |
| Dimmit County | 1,949 | 1,082 | 93 | 3,124 | D +27.8 |
| Zavala County | 2,066 | 911 | 91 | 3,068 | D +37.6 |
| McCulloch County | 380 | 2,536 | 90 | 3,006 | R +71.7 |
| Reeves County | 1,233 | 1,682 | 90 | 3,005 | R +14.9 |
| Carson County | 231 | 2,375 | 80 | 2,686 | R +79.8 |
| Refugio County | 776 | 1,810 | 79 | 2,665 | R +38.8 |
| Ochiltree County | 211 | 2,292 | 77 | 2,580 | R +80.6 |
| Mitchell County | 305 | 2,047 | 72 | 2,424 | R +71.9 |
| San Saba County | 221 | 2,114 | 72 | 2,407 | R +78.7 |
| Brooks County | 1,491 | 792 | 69 | 2,352 | D +29.7 |
| Mills County | 212 | 2,032 | 68 | 2,312 | R +78.7 |
| Parmer County | 300 | 1,911 | 68 | 2,279 | R +70.7 |
| Delta County | 334 | 1,853 | 67 | 2,254 | R +67.3 |
| Mason County | 374 | 1,755 | 65 | 2,194 | R +63.0 |
| Childress County | 222 | 1,814 | 62 | 2,098 | R +75.8 |
| Kimble County | 217 | 1,813 | 63 | 2,093 | R +76.3 |
| Lynn County | 290 | 1,737 | 61 | 2,088 | R +69.3 |
| Swisher County | 381 | 1,631 | 62 | 2,074 | R +60.3 |
| Haskell County | 277 | 1,686 | 61 | 2,024 | R +69.6 |
| Yoakum County | 259 | 1,702 | 60 | 2,021 | R +71.4 |
| La Salle County | 932 | 1,013 | 60 | 2,005 | R +4.1 |
| Wheeler County | 139 | 1,749 | 58 | 1,946 | R +82.7 |
| Presidio County | 1,381 | 458 | 57 | 1,896 | D +48.7 |
| Castro County | 350 | 1,445 | 56 | 1,851 | R +59.1 |
| Hartley County | 148 | 1,626 | 54 | 1,828 | R +80.8 |
| Floyd County | 283 | 1,408 | 53 | 1,744 | R +64.5 |
| Hansford County | 119 | 1,573 | 52 | 1,744 | R +83.4 |
| Winkler County | 259 | 1,425 | 52 | 1,736 | R +67.2 |
| Martin County | 202 | 1,476 | 52 | 1,730 | R +73.6 |
| Bailey County | 301 | 1,324 | 49 | 1,674 | R +61.1 |
| Crosby County | 383 | 1,161 | 48 | 1,592 | R +48.9 |
| Jim Hogg County | 998 | 526 | 46 | 1,570 | D +30.1 |
| Real County | 213 | 1,306 | 46 | 1,565 | R +69.8 |
| Fisher County | 265 | 1,245 | 46 | 1,556 | R +63.0 |
| Coke County | 142 | 1,366 | 46 | 1,554 | R +78.7 |
| Baylor County | 145 | 1,299 | 44 | 1,488 | R +77.5 |
| Garza County | 207 | 1,231 | 44 | 1,482 | R +69.0 |
| Shackelford County | 114 | 1,286 | 44 | 1,444 | R +81.2 |
| Hemphill County | 162 | 1,232 | 42 | 1,436 | R +74.5 |
| Donley County | 133 | 1,245 | 42 | 1,420 | R +78.3 |
| Dallam County | 140 | 1,198 | 41 | 1,379 | R +76.7 |
| Kinney County | 322 | 935 | 39 | 1,296 | R +47.4 |
| Crockett County | 294 | 919 | 37 | 1,250 | R +50.0 |
| Crane County | 168 | 1,032 | 37 | 1,237 | R +69.8 |
| Sutton County | 206 | 988 | 36 | 1,230 | R +63.6 |
| Hardeman County | 158 | 1,020 | 36 | 1,214 | R +71.0 |
| Knox County | 178 | 965 | 35 | 1,178 | R +66.8 |
| Upton County | 129 | 976 | 35 | 1,140 | R +74.3 |
| Concho County | 152 | 937 | 33 | 1,122 | R +70.0 |
| Lipscomb County | 92 | 956 | 32 | 1,080 | R +80.0 |
| Jeff Davis County | 421 | 600 | 31 | 1,052 | R +17.0 |
| Collingsworth County | 109 | 888 | 31 | 1,028 | R +75.7 |
| Hall County | 124 | 870 | 31 | 1,025 | R +72.8 |
| Schleicher County | 177 | 803 | 30 | 1,010 | R +62.0 |
| Armstrong County | 67 | 865 | 28 | 960 | R +83.2 |
| Hudspeth County | 291 | 625 | 28 | 944 | R +35.5 |
| Menard County | 135 | 710 | 27 | 872 | R +66.0 |
| Dickens County | 110 | 704 | 25 | 839 | R +70.8 |
| Oldham County | 65 | 731 | 24 | 820 | R +81.3 |
| Reagan County | 119 | 676 | 25 | 820 | R +67.9 |
| Sherman County | 57 | 733 | 24 | 814 | R +83.0 |
| Throckmorton County | 60 | 674 | 22 | 756 | R +81.1 |
| Culberson County | 341 | 374 | 21 | 736 | R +4.5 |
| Cochran County | 117 | 597 | 21 | 735 | R +65.3 |
| Irion County | 80 | 605 | 21 | 706 | R +74.3 |
| Edwards County | 81 | 558 | 19 | 658 | R +72.5 |
| Briscoe County | 47 | 564 | 19 | 630 | R +82.0 |
| Stonewall County | 88 | 491 | 19 | 598 | R +67.4 |
| Motley County | 33 | 522 | 17 | 572 | R +85.7 |
| Cottle County | 76 | 473 | 17 | 566 | R +70.2 |
| Glasscock County | 30 | 503 | 16 | 549 | R +86.2 |
| Sterling County | 30 | 461 | 15 | 506 | R +85.2 |
| Foard County | 87 | 403 | 14 | 504 | R +62.7 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +92.0 |
| Terrell County | 93 | 282 | 11 | 386 | R +49.1 |
| Kent County | 39 | 325 | 12 | 376 | R +76.3 |
| Borden County | 16 | 296 | 10 | 322 | R +86.8 |
| McMullen County | 23 | 241 | 8 | 272 | R +80.4 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.4 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 42 | 2 | 66 | R +30.6 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +75.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +2.3 and R +11.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.0 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +4.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +2.3 and R +11.3.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Triana | Busby | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 42.2 | 57.8 | R +15.6 |