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2026 ballot measure forecast

Kentucky Constitutional Amendment 1

Limit governor pardons near gubernatorial election

Bars the governor from granting pardons, commutations or reprieves from 60 days before the gubernatorial election until the new term begins, except in impeachment matters. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCriminal justiceUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
97%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 57 to 79
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
The campaign

SB 10 by Sen. Chris McDaniel R, prompted by Gov. Bevin's 2019 end of term pardons; no organized opposition or money reported. Ballot question says the window ends at swearing in while the text says the fifth Tuesday after the election.

Constitutional Amendment 1 by county

Adair CountyAllen CountyAnderson CountyBallard CountyBarren CountyBath CountyBell CountyBoone CountyBourbon CountyBoyd CountyBoyle CountyBracken CountyBreathitt CountyBreckinridge CountyBullitt CountyButler CountyCaldwell CountyCalloway CountyCampbell CountyCarlisle CountyCarroll CountyCarter CountyCasey CountyChristian CountyClark CountyClay CountyClinton CountyCrittenden CountyCumberland CountyDaviess CountyEdmonson CountyElliott CountyEstill CountyFayette CountyFleming CountyFloyd CountyFranklin CountyFulton CountyGallatin CountyGarrard CountyGrant CountyGraves CountyGrayson CountyGreen CountyGreenup CountyHancock CountyHardin CountyHarlan CountyHarrison CountyHart CountyHenderson CountyHenry CountyHickman CountyHopkins CountyJackson CountyJefferson CountyJessamine CountyJohnson CountyKenton CountyKnott CountyKnox CountyLarue CountyLaurel CountyLawrence CountyLee CountyLeslie CountyLetcher CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyLivingston CountyLogan CountyLyon CountyMcCracken CountyMcCreary CountyMcLean CountyMadison CountyMagoffin CountyMarion CountyMarshall CountyMartin CountyMason CountyMeade CountyMenifee CountyMercer CountyMetcalfe CountyMonroe CountyMontgomery CountyMorgan CountyMuhlenberg CountyNelson CountyNicholas CountyOhio CountyOldham CountyOwen CountyOwsley CountyPendleton CountyPerry CountyPike CountyPowell CountyPulaski CountyRobertson CountyRockcastle CountyRowan CountyRussell CountyScott CountyShelby CountySimpson CountySpencer CountyTaylor CountyTodd CountyTrigg CountyTrimble CountyUnion CountyWarren CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWebster CountyWhitley CountyWolfe CountyWoodford CountyJeffersonFayetteKentonWarrenDaviessMadisonHardinBullittOldhamMcCrackenPulaskiScott
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Jefferson County: Yes +107,195Fayette County: Yes +44,908Kenton County: Yes +21,689Boone County: Yes +17,359Warren County: Yes +15,944Campbell County: Yes +13,247Daviess County: Yes +13,091Madison County: Yes +13,013Hardin County: Yes +12,930Bullitt County: Yes +10,787Oldham County: Yes +10,409McCracken County: Yes +9,180Pulaski County: Yes +8,511Scott County: Yes +8,237Franklin County: Yes +7,762Jessamine County: Yes +7,600Laurel County: Yes +7,139Pike County: Yes +7,044Shelby County: Yes +6,671Christian County: Yes +6,608Nelson County: Yes +6,199Hopkins County: Yes +5,830Boyd County: Yes +5,743Henderson County: Yes +5,562Barren County: Yes +5,561Clark County: Yes +5,248Marshall County: Yes +5,074Calloway County: Yes +4,861Graves County: Yes +4,833Greenup County: Yes +4,779Woodford County: Yes +4,496Floyd County: Yes +4,465Whitley County: Yes +4,049Boyle County: Yes +4,041Muhlenberg County: Yes +3,969Meade County: Yes +3,847Anderson County: Yes +3,747Montgomery County: Yes +3,717Knox County: Yes +3,580Taylor County: Yes +3,543Logan County: Yes +3,368Mercer County: Yes +3,274Grayson County: Yes +3,247Perry County: Yes +3,198Carter County: Yes +3,157Harlan County: Yes +3,076Spencer County: Yes +3,040Ohio County: Yes +2,998Lincoln County: Yes +2,962Grant County: Yes +2,949Rowan County: Yes +2,864Bourbon County: Yes +2,860Johnson County: Yes +2,834Breckinridge County: Yes +2,813Bell County: Yes +2,811Adair County: Yes +2,619Letcher County: Yes +2,612Russell County: Yes +2,576Allen County: Yes +2,527Harrison County: Yes +2,485Wayne County: Yes +2,483Marion County: Yes +2,415Simpson County: Yes +2,392Garrard County: Yes +2,333Hart County: Yes +2,333Henry County: Yes +2,227Clay County: Yes +2,164Mason County: Yes +2,159Rockcastle County: Yes +2,099Trigg County: Yes +2,076Fleming County: Yes +2,045Casey County: Yes +1,943Estill County: Yes +1,906Larue County: Yes +1,904Lawrence County: Yes +1,903Union County: Yes +1,862McCreary County: Yes +1,852Knott County: Yes +1,818Pendleton County: Yes +1,813Caldwell County: Yes +1,788Washington County: Yes +1,764Magoffin County: Yes +1,692Butler County: Yes +1,679Edmonson County: Yes +1,672Powell County: Yes +1,651Bath County: Yes +1,606Jackson County: Yes +1,602Green County: Yes +1,601Webster County: Yes +1,598Morgan County: Yes +1,597Breathitt County: Yes +1,582Monroe County: Yes +1,540Owen County: Yes +1,529Metcalfe County: Yes +1,504Todd County: Yes +1,454Lewis County: Yes +1,431Clinton County: Yes +1,415Livingston County: Yes +1,381McLean County: Yes +1,361Leslie County: Yes +1,322Hancock County: Yes +1,300Lyon County: Yes +1,238Ballard County: Yes +1,201Crittenden County: Yes +1,199Martin County: Yes +1,188Carroll County: Yes +1,178Trimble County: Yes +1,138Bracken County: Yes +1,101Gallatin County: Yes +1,083Cumberland County: Yes +993Menifee County: Yes +969Nicholas County: Yes +916Wolfe County: Yes +869Lee County: Yes +832Carlisle County: Yes +779Elliott County: Yes +746Fulton County: Yes +682Hickman County: Yes +617Owsley County: Yes +586Robertson County: Yes +306
Yes +592,155 net votes from 120 countiesStatewide Yes +38.0, a 592,155 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

1,558,499 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,075,32769.0%
No483,17231.0%
Total1,558,499100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Jefferson County194,66387,468282,13169.0%
Fayette County81,55136,643118,19469.0%
Kenton County39,38617,69757,08369.0%
Boone County31,52314,16445,68769.0%
Warren County28,95313,00941,96269.0%
Campbell County24,05610,80934,86569.0%
Daviess County23,77310,68234,45569.0%
Madison County23,63110,61834,24969.0%
Hardin County23,48010,55034,03069.0%
Bullitt County19,5888,80128,38969.0%
Oldham County18,9038,49427,39769.0%
McCracken County16,6707,49024,16069.0%
Pulaski County15,4566,94522,40169.0%
Scott County14,9586,72121,67969.0%
Franklin County14,0956,33320,42869.0%
Jessamine County13,8026,20220,00469.0%
Laurel County12,9655,82618,79169.0%
Pike County12,7915,74718,53869.0%
Shelby County12,1155,44417,55969.0%
Christian County12,0015,39317,39469.0%
Nelson County11,2585,05916,31769.0%
Hopkins County10,5874,75715,34469.0%
Boyd County10,4294,68615,11569.0%
Henderson County10,1014,53914,64069.0%
Barren County10,0994,53814,63769.0%
Clark County9,5314,28313,81469.0%
Marshall County9,2144,14013,35469.0%
Calloway County8,8283,96712,79569.0%
Graves County8,7763,94312,71969.0%
Greenup County8,6783,89912,57769.0%
Woodford County8,1643,66811,83269.0%
Floyd County8,1083,64311,75169.0%
Whitley County7,3523,30310,65569.0%
Boyle County7,3383,29710,63569.0%
Muhlenberg County7,2073,23810,44569.0%
Meade County6,9853,13810,12369.0%
Anderson County6,8043,0579,86169.0%
Montgomery County6,7503,0339,78369.0%
Knox County6,5022,9229,42469.0%
Taylor County6,4342,8919,32569.0%
Logan County6,1172,7498,86669.0%
Mercer County5,9452,6718,61669.0%
Grayson County5,8962,6498,54569.0%
Perry County5,8072,6098,41669.0%
Carter County5,7332,5768,30969.0%
Harlan County5,5862,5108,09669.0%
Spencer County5,5202,4808,00069.0%
Ohio County5,4442,4467,89069.0%
Lincoln County5,3792,4177,79669.0%
Grant County5,3552,4067,76169.0%
Rowan County5,2002,3367,53669.0%
Bourbon County5,1942,3347,52869.0%
Johnson County5,1462,3127,45869.0%
Breckinridge County5,1082,2957,40369.0%
Bell County5,1042,2937,39769.0%
Adair County4,7572,1386,89569.0%
Letcher County4,7432,1316,87469.0%
Russell County4,6782,1026,78069.0%
Allen County4,5892,0626,65169.0%
Harrison County4,5132,0286,54169.0%
Wayne County4,5092,0266,53569.0%
Marion County4,3861,9716,35769.0%
Simpson County4,3441,9526,29669.0%
Garrard County4,2371,9046,14169.0%
Hart County4,2371,9046,14169.0%
Henry County4,0441,8175,86169.0%
Clay County3,9301,7665,69669.0%
Mason County3,9211,7625,68369.0%
Rockcastle County3,8111,7125,52369.0%
Trigg County3,7701,6945,46469.0%
Fleming County3,7131,6685,38169.0%
Casey County3,5281,5855,11369.0%
Estill County3,4611,5555,01669.0%
Larue County3,4571,5535,01069.0%
Lawrence County3,4561,5535,00969.0%
Union County3,3821,5204,90269.0%
McCreary County3,3631,5114,87469.0%
Knott County3,3011,4834,78469.0%
Pendleton County3,2931,4804,77369.0%
Caldwell County3,2471,4594,70669.0%
Washington County3,2031,4394,64269.0%
Magoffin County3,0731,3814,45469.0%
Butler County3,0491,3704,41969.0%
Edmonson County3,0371,3654,40269.0%
Powell County2,9981,3474,34569.0%
Bath County2,9161,3104,22669.0%
Green County2,9081,3074,21569.0%
Jackson County2,9081,3064,21469.0%
Webster County2,9021,3044,20669.0%
Morgan County2,9001,3034,20369.0%
Breathitt County2,8731,2914,16469.0%
Monroe County2,7971,2574,05469.0%
Owen County2,7761,2474,02369.0%
Metcalfe County2,7311,2273,95869.0%
Todd County2,6401,1863,82669.0%
Lewis County2,5991,1683,76769.0%
Clinton County2,5691,1543,72369.0%
Livingston County2,5071,1263,63369.0%
McLean County2,4711,1103,58169.0%
Leslie County2,4001,0783,47869.0%
Hancock County2,3611,0613,42269.0%
Lyon County2,2491,0113,26069.0%
Ballard County2,1819803,16169.0%
Crittenden County2,1779783,15569.0%
Martin County2,1579693,12669.0%
Carroll County2,1409623,10269.0%
Trimble County2,0669282,99469.0%
Bracken County2,0008992,89969.0%
Gallatin County1,9678842,85169.0%
Cumberland County1,8038102,61369.0%
Menifee County1,7607912,55169.0%
Nicholas County1,6637472,41069.0%
Wolfe County1,5797102,28969.0%
Lee County1,5116792,19069.0%
Carlisle County1,4156362,05169.0%
Elliott County1,3546081,96269.0%
Fulton County1,2385561,79469.0%
Hickman County1,1215041,62569.0%
Owsley County1,0644781,54269.0%
Robertson County55524980469.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 1 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Kentucky's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com, en.wikipedia.org, nkytribune.com, web.sos.ky.gov. All measures.