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2026 forecast · Rhode Island Senate

Jack Reed is all but certain to win Rhode Island's Senate seat.

Jack Reed vs Raymond McKay. The model has Reed ahead by 35.1 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +35.1Polls D +40.7Updated October 22, 2026
Jack Reed
Democrat
65.2%
277,660 projected votes
Raymond McKay
Republican
30.0%
127,946 projected votes
100%Reed
0%McKay
Reed all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Reed wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Reed
Model marginD +35.1Polls D +40.7
80 percent rangeD +42.4 to D +28.32,000 simulations
Projected votes426,012Reed 65.2%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Rhode Island Senate by county

Bristol CountyKent CountyNewport CountyProvidence CountyWashington CountyProvidenceKentWashingtonNewportBristol
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Providence County: Reed +79,685Washington County: Reed +21,820Kent County: Reed +19,264Newport County: Reed +16,462Bristol County: Reed +10,783
Reed +148,014 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +34.7, a 148,014 vote marginMcKay +0 net votes from 0 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Jack ReedDemocrat · 100% to win
65.2%
Raymond McKayRepublican · 0% to win
30.0%
Other / write-inO
4.8%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

426,012 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Jack Reed D277,66065.2%
Raymond McKay R127,94630.0%
Other / write-in O20,4064.8%
Total426,012100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +66.1: 1 simulationsD +64.7: 0 simulationsD +63.3: 0 simulationsD +61.8: 1 simulationsD +60.4: 0 simulationsD +59.0: 1 simulationsD +57.6: 1 simulationsD +56.1: 0 simulationsD +54.7: 1 simulationsD +53.3: 3 simulationsD +51.9: 2 simulationsD +50.4: 8 simulationsD +49.0: 12 simulationsD +47.6: 18 simulationsD +46.2: 28 simulationsD +44.7: 39 simulationsD +43.3: 73 simulationsD +41.9: 86 simulationsD +40.5: 104 simulationsD +39.0: 144 simulationsD +37.6: 193 simulationsD +36.2: 198 simulationsD +34.8: 235 simulationsD +33.3: 211 simulationsD +31.9: 171 simulationsD +30.5: 161 simulationsD +29.1: 104 simulationsD +27.6: 67 simulationsD +26.2: 64 simulationsD +24.8: 22 simulationsD +23.4: 26 simulationsD +21.9: 12 simulationsD +20.5: 4 simulationsD +19.1: 4 simulationsD +17.7: 3 simulationsD +16.2: 2 simulationsD +14.8: 0 simulationsD +13.4: 0 simulationsD +12.0: 0 simulationsD +10.5: 1 simulationsD +66.8D +9.8

80 percent of simulations fall between D +42.4 and D +28.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Reed0% McKay30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Rhode Island Senate polling average
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%MayJunJulAugSepOct58.9Reed25.0McKay
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Emerson College/WPRIOct 11 · 800 LV · Gold98%Reed +34.0
Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold ResearchOct 8 · 815 LV · NR1.6%Reed +23.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageD +40.7
Emerson College/WPRI800 LV4dD +34.059 to 25
Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research815 LV7dD +23.055 to 32
University of New Hampshire598 LV24dD +20.053 to 33
University of New Hampshire750 LV52dD +20.051 to 31
University of New Hampshire664 LV114dD +17.052 to 35
University of New Hampshire556 LV178dD +18.052 to 34

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Reed +35.1
Chance of winning
Jack Reed100%
Raymond McKay0%
Simulated vote
Jack Reed65.2%
Raymond McKay30.0%
Other / write-in4.8%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +14.2
FundamentalsD +38.8
With pollsD +36.4
Early vote turnoutR +1.2
With early voteD +35.1

Read from 44,295 ballots cast so far in Rhode Island, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

8 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Jack Reed8
  • VoteVetsVeterans PACsource
  • Association of Flight Attendants-CWALabor unionsource
  • League of Conservation VotersEnvironmental groupsource
  • Planned Parenthood Action FundReproductive rights groupsource
  • J Street PACPro Israel, pro peace PACsource
  • Jewish Democratic Council of AmericaJewish Democratic groupsource
  • Population Connection Action FundAdvocacy groupsource
  • National Education AssociationNational teachers union, recommended candidatesource
Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +47R +47Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +14.2Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +38.8With pollsaverage D +40.7D +36.4With early voteturnout so farD +35.1

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareReedMcKay
GenderMen46%62.532.6
Women54%70.324.9
Age18 to 2913%70.224.6
30 to 4422%64.930.2
45 to 6432%64.930.2
65+33%68.426.9
RaceWhite80%63.531.9
Black5%90.34.4
Latino10%74.620.0
Asian and other6%79.714.4
Race and genderWhite men36%58.037.3
White women44%67.927.5
Black men2%89.45.2
Black women3%91.13.7
Latino men5%72.621.9
Latino women5%76.518.1
All other races6%79.714.4

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

5 counties
CountyReedMcKayOtherTotalMargin
Statewide276,716128,70220,594426,012D +34.7
Providence County144,96565,28013,183223,428D +35.9
Kent County46,64827,3842,60676,638D +25.3
Washington County41,98320,1632,58964,735D +34.0
Newport County26,50010,0381,20737,745D +43.8
Bristol County16,6205,8371,00923,466D +46.2

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.