2026 forecast · California Treasurer
Eleni Kounalakis is all but certain to win California's treasurer race.
Eleni Kounalakis vs Jennifer Hawks, an open seat. The model has Kounalakis ahead by 29.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +29.8Updated October 22, 2026
Eleni Kounalakis
Democrat
64.4%
8,691,512 projected votes
Jennifer Hawks
Republican
34.6%
4,670,512 projected votes
100%Kounalakis
0%Hawks
Kounalakis all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Kounalakis wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Kounalakis +4,184,066 net votes from 34 countiesStatewide D +29.8, a 4,020,998 vote marginHawks +163,068 net votes from 24 counties
Projected statewide vote
13,496,995 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Eleni Kounalakis D | 8,691,512 | 64.4% |
| Jennifer Hawks R | 4,670,512 | 34.6% |
| Other candidates | 134,969 | 1.0% |
| Total | 13,496,995 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
58 counties| County | Kounalakis | Hawks | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 8,691,514 | 4,670,516 | 134,965 | 13,496,995 | D +29.8 |
| Los Angeles County | 2,307,080 | 815,517 | 31,542 | 3,154,139 | D +47.3 |
| San Diego County | 763,128 | 478,517 | 12,542 | 1,254,187 | D +22.7 |
| Orange County | 619,985 | 536,950 | 11,686 | 1,168,621 | D +7.1 |
| Riverside County | 412,343 | 347,558 | 7,675 | 767,576 | D +8.4 |
| Santa Clara County | 485,196 | 160,941 | 6,527 | 652,664 | D +49.7 |
| San Bernardino County | 335,690 | 274,013 | 6,158 | 615,861 | D +10.0 |
| Alameda County | 491,661 | 96,586 | 5,942 | 594,189 | D +66.5 |
| Sacramento County | 364,274 | 202,974 | 5,730 | 572,978 | D +28.1 |
| Contra Costa County | 329,913 | 122,619 | 4,571 | 457,103 | D +45.4 |
| San Francisco County | 319,949 | 34,627 | 3,582 | 358,158 | D +79.7 |
| Ventura County | 190,428 | 133,705 | 3,274 | 327,407 | D +17.3 |
| San Mateo County | 228,651 | 58,160 | 2,897 | 289,708 | D +58.9 |
| Fresno County | 142,206 | 134,782 | 2,798 | 279,786 | D +2.6 |
| Kern County | 101,208 | 132,860 | 2,364 | 236,432 | R +13.4 |
| San Joaquin County | 123,792 | 98,058 | 2,241 | 224,091 | D +11.5 |
| Sonoma County | 167,015 | 50,657 | 2,198 | 219,870 | D +52.9 |
| Placer County | 90,541 | 108,167 | 2,007 | 200,715 | R +8.8 |
| Stanislaus County | 82,583 | 78,159 | 1,624 | 162,366 | D +2.7 |
| Solano County | 105,946 | 53,868 | 1,614 | 161,428 | D +32.3 |
| Santa Barbara County | 102,014 | 55,695 | 1,593 | 159,302 | D +29.1 |
| San Luis Obispo County | 74,441 | 56,484 | 1,323 | 132,248 | D +13.6 |
| Marin County | 107,580 | 19,781 | 1,286 | 128,647 | D +68.3 |
| Monterey County | 87,220 | 36,906 | 1,254 | 125,380 | D +40.1 |
| Santa Cruz County | 94,177 | 22,747 | 1,181 | 118,105 | D +60.5 |
| Tulare County | 49,455 | 64,498 | 1,151 | 115,104 | R +13.1 |
| El Dorado County | 43,008 | 52,372 | 964 | 96,344 | R +9.7 |
| Butte County | 40,812 | 41,112 | 828 | 82,752 | R +0.4 |
| Yolo County | 57,969 | 23,465 | 822 | 82,256 | D +42.0 |
| Shasta County | 24,975 | 50,082 | 758 | 75,815 | R +33.1 |
| Merced County | 37,316 | 33,157 | 711 | 71,184 | D +5.8 |
| Napa County | 39,240 | 17,223 | 570 | 57,033 | D +38.6 |
| Humboldt County | 36,678 | 18,501 | 557 | 55,736 | D +32.6 |
| Nevada County | 30,986 | 22,709 | 542 | 54,237 | D +15.3 |
| Madera County | 18,317 | 26,418 | 452 | 45,187 | R +17.9 |
| Imperial County | 25,014 | 16,073 | 415 | 41,502 | D +21.6 |
| Kings County | 14,917 | 20,141 | 354 | 35,412 | R +14.8 |
| Mendocino County | 23,590 | 10,520 | 344 | 34,454 | D +37.9 |
| Sutter County | 13,060 | 19,377 | 328 | 32,765 | R +19.3 |
| Tuolumne County | 10,525 | 14,380 | 252 | 25,157 | R +15.3 |
| Yuba County | 9,886 | 14,617 | 248 | 24,751 | R +19.1 |
| Lake County | 12,613 | 10,428 | 233 | 23,274 | D +9.4 |
| San Benito County | 13,881 | 8,877 | 230 | 22,988 | D +21.8 |
| Tehama County | 7,020 | 15,566 | 228 | 22,814 | R +37.5 |
| Calaveras County | 8,720 | 13,765 | 227 | 22,712 | R +22.2 |
| Amador County | 7,483 | 12,032 | 197 | 19,712 | R +23.1 |
| Siskiyou County | 7,979 | 10,714 | 188 | 18,881 | R +14.5 |
| Lassen County | 2,576 | 7,360 | 100 | 10,036 | R +47.7 |
| Del Norte County | 4,127 | 5,246 | 94 | 9,467 | R +11.8 |
| Plumas County | 3,917 | 4,963 | 90 | 8,970 | R +11.7 |
| Glenn County | 2,919 | 5,802 | 88 | 8,809 | R +32.7 |
| Mariposa County | 3,425 | 4,807 | 83 | 8,315 | R +16.6 |
| Inyo County | 4,002 | 3,915 | 80 | 7,997 | D +1.1 |
| Colusa County | 2,296 | 3,730 | 60 | 6,086 | R +23.6 |
| Trinity County | 2,473 | 2,717 | 52 | 5,242 | R +4.7 |
| Mono County | 3,317 | 1,866 | 52 | 5,235 | D +27.7 |
| Modoc County | 940 | 2,621 | 36 | 3,597 | R +46.8 |
| Sierra County | 618 | 918 | 16 | 1,552 | R +19.3 |
| Alpine County | 439 | 213 | 6 | 658 | D +34.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +37.5 and D +22.1. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +36.0 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +31.4 |
| Blend of every leg | D +30.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +30.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +29.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +37.5 and D +22.1.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Kounalakis | Hawks | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||