2026 state legislative forecast
Texas House forecast
Republicans win control of the Texas House in 77% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 150 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 7 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
19%D77%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
65 to 78Median 70 ยท 76 for a majority
Favored to flip
6to D0to R
After 2024: 62 D, 88 R
Environment
D +12.3Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Texas House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 71 D to 79 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | Harris 2024 | Chris Jimenez vs Caroline Harris Davila | R +8.3 | R +0.8 | 46% | 48,767 | 49,544 | 99,808 | Toss up |
| 63 | Bumgarner 2024 | Denise Wooten vs Ben Bumgarner | R +10.7 | R +0.9 | 45% | 35,971 | 36,624 | 73,700 | Toss up |
| 133 | Deayala 2024 | Josh Wallenstein vs Mano DeAyala | R +7.2 | D +1.0 | 56% | 32,979 | 32,345 | 66,319 | Toss up |
| 96 | Cook 2024 | Ebony M. Turner vs Ellen Fleischmann | R +10.8 | R +1.5 | 40% | 35,883 | 36,975 | 73,967 | Toss up |
| 94 | Tinderholt 2024 | Katie O'Brien Duzan vs Cheryl Bean | R +9.7 | R +2.2 | 37% | 33,107 | 34,597 | 68,735 | Lean R |
| 37 | Lopez 2024 | Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa Jr. vs Janie Lopez | R +11.0 | D +2.4 | 64% | 24,608 | 23,468 | 48,809 | Lean D |
| 121 | Lahood 2024 | Zack Dunn vs Marc LaHood | R +4.9 | D +2.5 | 64% | 43,497 | 41,334 | 86,123 | Lean D |
| 97 | Mcqueeney 2024 | Beth Llewellyn McLaughlin vs John W. McQueeney | R +10.6 | R +2.9 | 33% | 36,887 | 39,099 | 77,143 | Lean R |
| 108 | Meyer 2024 | Allison Mitchell vs Morgan Meyer | R +5.8 | R +3.2 | 31% | 43,595 | 46,505 | 91,472 | Lean R |
| 138 | Hull 2024 | Tyler Smith vs Lacey Hull | R +8.7 | R +3.2 | 33% | 30,675 | 32,723 | 64,364 | Lean R |
| 112 | Button 2024 | Zach Herbert vs Angie Chen Button | R +3.5 | D +3.6 | 70% | 39,365 | 36,607 | 77,130 | Lean D |
| 132 | Schofield 2024 | Sara McGee vs Mike Schofield | R +14.2 | R +4.5 | 25% | 37,629 | 41,150 | 79,978 | Lean R |
| 34 | Villalobos 2024 | Stephanie Guerrero Saenz vs Denise Villalobos | R +1.4 | D +5.2 | 79% | 23,565 | 21,231 | 45,477 | Lean D |
| 55 | Hickland 2024 | Amelia Rabroker vs Hillary Hickland | R +15.9 | R +5.5 | 23% | 28,453 | 31,746 | 61,115 | Lean R |
| 80 | Mclaughlin 2024 | Cecilia Castellano vs Don McLaughlin | R +23.5 | R +5.9 | 19% | 21,942 | 24,698 | 47,351 | Lean R |
| 122 | Dorazio 2024 | Shelly Nickels vs Mark Dorazio | R +11.5 | R +6.0 | 17% | 45,758 | 51,641 | 98,881 | Likely R |
| 118 | Lujan 2024 | Kristian Carranza vs Jorge Borrego | R +4.6 | D +6.9 | 85% | 35,866 | 31,255 | 68,142 | Likely D |
| 150 | Swanson 2024 | A'Yonna Kellum vs Valoree Swanson | R +16.6 | R +7.5 | 13% | 31,829 | 36,953 | 69,829 | Likely R |
| 127 | Cunningham 2024 | Michelle Williams vs Charles Cunningham | R +15.1 | R +7.5 | 14% | 36,189 | 42,074 | 79,455 | Likely R |
| 26 | Morgan 2024 | Elizabeth "Eliz" Markowitz vs Matt Morgan | R +15.8 | R +7.7 | 12% | 33,273 | 38,793 | 73,163 | Likely R |
| 20 | Wilson 2024 | Matthias-Jonah Early vs Terry M. Wilson | R +14.8 | R +8.1 | 10% | 43,606 | 51,304 | 96,355 | Likely R |
| 57 | Hayes 2024 | Ray Stith vs Richard Hayes | R +17.6 | R +8.6 | 10% | 35,316 | 41,945 | 78,438 | Likely R |
| 61 | Richardson 2024 | Brittany Black vs Keresa Richardson | R +15.1 | R +8.7 | 10% | 40,019 | 47,607 | 88,960 | Likely R |
| 65 | Little 2024 | Detrick Deburr vs Mitch Little | R +16.9 | R +8.9 | 9% | 39,459 | 47,197 | 87,975 | Likely R |
| 126 | Harless 2024 | Stefanie Bord vs Stan Stanart | R +18.5 | R +9.2 | 8% | 30,794 | 36,997 | 68,823 | Likely R |
| 67 | Leach 2024 | Jordan Wheatley vs Jeff Leach | R +14.9 | R +9.3 | 8% | 37,543 | 45,288 | 84,092 | Likely R |
| 28 | Gates 2024 | Sandy Ibanez vs Gary Gates | R +17.3 | R +9.5 | 9% | 37,729 | 45,650 | 84,649 | Likely R |
| 74 | Morales 2024 | Eddie Morales Jr. vs Robert Garza | R +14.8 | D +9.6 | 93% | 26,789 | 22,118 | 49,652 | Likely D |
| 93 | Schatzline 2024 | Ericka Lomick vs Alan Blaylock | R +19.4 | R +9.7 | 7% | 34,386 | 41,765 | 77,310 | Likely R |
| 66 | Shaheen 2024 | Sandeep Srivastava vs Matt Shaheen | R +15.0 | R +10.2 | 6% | 38,008 | 46,670 | 85,968 | Likely R |
| 54 | Buckley 2024 | Dawn Richardson vs Brad Buckley | R +17.1 | R +10.6 | 6% | 22,019 | 27,218 | 49,986 | Likely R |
| 129 | Paul 2024 | Albert Wittliff vs Scott Bowen | R +18.0 | R +10.6 | 5% | 33,131 | 40,996 | 75,256 | Likely R |
| 14 | Dyson 2024 | Janet Tycelia Dudding vs Paul Dyson | R +21.1 | R +10.9 | 5% | 27,913 | 34,778 | 63,646 | Likely R |
| 25 | Vasut 2024 | Mike Meadors vs Cody Vasut | R +19.7 | R +11.1 | 4% | 29,404 | 36,761 | 67,172 | Likely R |
| 35 | Longoria 2024 | Oscar Longoria vs Oscar Rosa | R +6.9 | D +11.2 | 95% | 17,385 | 13,871 | 31,732 | Likely D |
| 29 | Barry 2024 | Karen Reeder vs Jeff Barry | R +20.2 | R +11.3 | 4% | 30,697 | 38,495 | 70,246 | Likely R |
| 106 | Patterson 2024 | Joe Mayes vs Jared Patterson | R +17.2 | R +11.3 | 5% | 39,243 | 49,212 | 89,803 | Likely R |
Projected Texas House vote
150 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 4,775,705 | 49.4% |
| Republicans | 4,757,610 | 49.2% |
| Independents and others | 132,385 | 1.4% |
| Total | 9,665,687 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 38%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 2026-06-12 | 44 | 50 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 2026-08-13 | 43 | 49 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 2026-10-05 | 43 | 48 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 49 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 2026-02-16 | 42 | 43 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.