2026 forecast · Alabama Secretary Of State
Caroleene Dobson is all but certain to win Alabama's secretary of state race.
Wayne Rogers vs Caroleene Dobson, an open seat. The model has Dobson ahead by 21.5 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +21.5Polls R +14.1Updated October 22, 2026
Wayne Rogers
Democrat
37.7%
647,782 projected votes
Caroleene Dobson
Republican
59.3%
1,017,398 projected votes
100%Dobson
0%Rogers
Dobson all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Dobson wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Rogers +124,335 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide R +21.5, a 369,614 vote marginDobson +493,949 net votes from 53 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,716,050 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Caroleene Dobson R | 1,017,398 | 59.3% |
| Wayne Rogers D | 647,782 | 37.7% |
| Other candidates | 50,868 | 3.0% |
| Total | 1,716,050 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Rogers | Dobson | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 647,781 | 1,017,395 | 50,873 | 1,716,049 | R +21.5 |
| Jefferson County | 147,610 | 80,913 | 6,981 | 235,504 | D +28.3 |
| Madison County | 71,333 | 69,522 | 4,303 | 145,158 | D +1.3 |
| Mobile County | 60,121 | 69,225 | 3,952 | 133,298 | R +6.8 |
| Baldwin County | 18,535 | 66,952 | 2,612 | 88,099 | R +55.0 |
| Shelby County | 27,427 | 53,063 | 2,458 | 82,948 | R +30.9 |
| Montgomery County | 50,598 | 20,869 | 2,183 | 73,650 | D +40.4 |
| Tuscaloosa County | 29,902 | 35,395 | 1,995 | 67,292 | R +8.2 |
| Lee County | 20,583 | 31,655 | 1,595 | 53,833 | R +20.6 |
| Morgan County | 9,365 | 28,703 | 1,163 | 39,231 | R +49.3 |
| Limestone County | 10,775 | 26,063 | 1,126 | 37,964 | R +40.3 |
| Calhoun County | 11,033 | 24,452 | 1,083 | 36,568 | R +36.7 |
| Houston County | 9,053 | 24,154 | 1,015 | 34,222 | R +44.1 |
| Etowah County | 7,996 | 23,949 | 977 | 32,922 | R +48.5 |
| St. Clair County | 5,854 | 25,746 | 966 | 32,566 | R +61.1 |
| Lauderdale County | 8,146 | 22,672 | 942 | 31,760 | R +45.7 |
| Cullman County | 3,146 | 27,355 | 932 | 31,433 | R +77.0 |
| Elmore County | 7,291 | 23,043 | 927 | 31,261 | R +50.4 |
| Marshall County | 4,056 | 24,341 | 867 | 29,264 | R +69.3 |
| Talladega County | 9,370 | 15,908 | 772 | 26,050 | R +25.1 |
| Walker County | 3,242 | 17,858 | 644 | 21,744 | R +67.2 |
| DeKalb County | 2,619 | 17,950 | 628 | 21,197 | R +72.3 |
| Autauga County | 5,454 | 15,028 | 626 | 21,108 | R +45.4 |
| Colbert County | 5,810 | 13,789 | 598 | 20,197 | R +39.5 |
| Blount County | 2,028 | 17,447 | 595 | 20,070 | R +76.8 |
| Coffee County | 3,159 | 13,486 | 508 | 17,153 | R +60.2 |
| Jackson County | 2,582 | 13,768 | 500 | 16,850 | R +66.4 |
| Russell County | 8,306 | 6,936 | 466 | 15,708 | D +8.7 |
| Tallapoosa County | 3,937 | 11,172 | 461 | 15,570 | R +46.5 |
| Dale County | 3,532 | 10,862 | 440 | 14,834 | R +49.4 |
| Chilton County | 2,115 | 12,188 | 437 | 14,740 | R +68.3 |
| Covington County | 1,752 | 11,156 | 394 | 13,302 | R +70.7 |
| Dallas County | 9,195 | 3,647 | 393 | 13,235 | D +41.9 |
| Lawrence County | 2,641 | 9,296 | 365 | 12,302 | R +54.1 |
| Escambia County | 3,177 | 8,193 | 348 | 11,718 | R +42.8 |
| Chambers County | 4,224 | 6,501 | 327 | 11,052 | R +20.6 |
| Pike County | 3,854 | 6,331 | 311 | 10,496 | R +23.6 |
| Marion County | 981 | 8,878 | 301 | 10,160 | R +77.7 |
| Clarke County | 4,296 | 5,157 | 289 | 9,742 | R +8.8 |
| Geneva County | 1,041 | 8,286 | 285 | 9,612 | R +75.4 |
| Cherokee County | 1,045 | 8,081 | 280 | 9,406 | R +74.8 |
| Franklin County | 1,226 | 7,590 | 269 | 9,085 | R +70.1 |
| Winston County | 668 | 7,386 | 246 | 8,300 | R +80.9 |
| Randolph County | 1,307 | 6,553 | 240 | 8,100 | R +64.8 |
| Marengo County | 4,191 | 3,488 | 235 | 7,914 | D +8.9 |
| Barbour County | 3,395 | 4,261 | 234 | 7,890 | R +11.0 |
| Monroe County | 3,156 | 4,452 | 233 | 7,841 | R +16.5 |
| Henry County | 1,796 | 5,483 | 223 | 7,502 | R +49.1 |
| Pickens County | 2,931 | 4,115 | 215 | 7,261 | R +16.3 |
| Bibb County | 1,455 | 5,494 | 213 | 7,162 | R +56.4 |
| Macon County | 5,676 | 972 | 204 | 6,852 | D +68.7 |
| Butler County | 2,651 | 3,989 | 203 | 6,843 | R +19.6 |
| Washington County | 1,446 | 4,947 | 195 | 6,588 | R +53.1 |
| Fayette County | 914 | 5,266 | 188 | 6,368 | R +68.3 |
| Hale County | 3,402 | 2,287 | 175 | 5,864 | D +19.0 |
| Cleburne County | 402 | 5,029 | 165 | 5,596 | R +82.7 |
| Choctaw County | 2,178 | 3,167 | 163 | 5,508 | R +18.0 |
| Crenshaw County | 1,128 | 3,879 | 153 | 5,160 | R +53.3 |
| Lamar County | 609 | 4,373 | 152 | 5,134 | R +73.3 |
| Clay County | 797 | 4,111 | 150 | 5,058 | R +65.5 |
| Conecuh County | 2,124 | 2,605 | 145 | 4,874 | R +9.9 |
| Lowndes County | 3,356 | 1,065 | 135 | 4,556 | D +50.3 |
| Sumter County | 3,447 | 961 | 134 | 4,542 | D +54.7 |
| Wilcox County | 2,932 | 1,241 | 127 | 4,300 | D +39.3 |
| Coosa County | 1,316 | 2,787 | 125 | 4,228 | R +34.8 |
| Perry County | 2,733 | 764 | 107 | 3,604 | D +54.6 |
| Greene County | 2,782 | 468 | 100 | 3,350 | D +69.1 |
| Bullock County | 2,579 | 672 | 99 | 3,350 | D +56.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +13.3 and R +29.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +36.7 |
| Blend of every leg | R +24.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +24.2 |
| With polls, 20% weight | R +21.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +13.3 and R +29.8.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Rogers | Dobson | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News | 500 LV | 2026-10-17 | 34.4 | 49.5 | R +15.1 |