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2026 ballot measure forecast

North Carolina Income Tax Cap Amendment

Cap state income tax rate at 3.5%

Lowers the constitutional cap on the state income tax rate from 7% to 3.5%. The forecast has Yes at 67.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureIncome taxUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
67.7%
80% range 59 to 75
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
71.6%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
62.5% Yes
Polls
71.6% Yes
Forecast
67.7% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

Backed by Republican legislators; NC groups launched a campaign to defeat the two tax amendments; no money reported.

Also on the North Carolina ballot

Photo ID Amendment
Photo ID for all voters including mail
>99%
Property Tax Limit Amendment
Require limits on local property tax increases
>99%

Income Tax Cap Amendment by county

Alamance CountyAlexander CountyAlleghany CountyAnson CountyAshe CountyAvery CountyBeaufort CountyBertie CountyBladen CountyBrunswick CountyBuncombe CountyBurke CountyCabarrus CountyCaldwell CountyCamden CountyCarteret CountyCaswell CountyCatawba CountyChatham CountyCherokee CountyChowan CountyClay CountyCleveland CountyColumbus CountyCraven CountyCumberland CountyCurrituck CountyDare CountyDavidson CountyDavie CountyDuplin CountyDurham CountyEdgecombe CountyForsyth CountyFranklin CountyGaston CountyGates CountyGraham CountyGranville CountyGreene CountyGuilford CountyHalifax CountyHarnett CountyHaywood CountyHenderson CountyHertford CountyHoke CountyHyde CountyIredell CountyJackson CountyJohnston CountyJones CountyLee CountyLenoir CountyLincoln CountyMcDowell CountyMacon CountyMadison CountyMartin CountyMecklenburg CountyMitchell CountyMontgomery CountyMoore CountyNash CountyNew Hanover CountyNorthampton CountyOnslow CountyOrange CountyPamlico CountyPasquotank CountyPender CountyPerquimans CountyPerson CountyPitt CountyPolk CountyRandolph CountyRichmond CountyRobeson CountyRockingham CountyRowan CountyRutherford CountySampson CountyScotland CountyStanly CountyStokes CountySurry CountySwain CountyTransylvania CountyTyrrell CountyUnion CountyVance CountyWake CountyWarren CountyWashington CountyWatauga CountyWayne CountyWilkes CountyWilson CountyYadkin CountyYancey CountyWakeMecklenburgGuilfordDurhamBuncombeNew HanoverCumberlandUnionJohnstonCabarrusIredellDavidson
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Wake County: Yes +119,551Mecklenburg County: Yes +86,969Guilford County: Yes +54,625Forsyth County: Yes +44,659Union County: Yes +43,666Gaston County: Yes +37,415Johnston County: Yes +37,242Iredell County: Yes +36,717New Hanover County: Yes +35,905Davidson County: Yes +35,111Brunswick County: Yes +34,842Cabarrus County: Yes +32,261Randolph County: Yes +30,979Buncombe County: Yes +30,978Catawba County: Yes +30,531Cumberland County: Yes +30,331Onslow County: Yes +27,962Rowan County: Yes +26,278Alamance County: Yes +25,200Henderson County: Yes +21,672Moore County: Yes +21,223Pitt County: Yes +20,765Lincoln County: Yes +20,723Harnett County: Yes +19,602Cleveland County: Yes +17,822Carteret County: Yes +17,615Craven County: Yes +17,562Rockingham County: Yes +17,418Caldwell County: Yes +17,112Burke County: Yes +16,870Wayne County: Yes +16,562Wilkes County: Yes +15,576Surry County: Yes +15,141Robeson County: Yes +14,688Stanly County: Yes +14,224Nash County: Yes +13,860Rutherford County: Yes +13,620Pender County: Yes +12,853Haywood County: Yes +12,590Franklin County: Yes +12,128Chatham County: Yes +11,934Stokes County: Yes +11,466Davie County: Yes +10,252Wilson County: Yes +10,115Columbus County: Yes +9,474Beaufort County: Yes +9,312McDowell County: Yes +9,308Sampson County: Yes +9,306Granville County: Yes +9,230Alexander County: Yes +9,169Lee County: Yes +8,981Yadkin County: Yes +8,968Macon County: Yes +8,218Watauga County: Yes +8,218Dare County: Yes +7,851Orange County: Yes +7,705Duplin County: Yes +7,652Lenoir County: Yes +7,623Cherokee County: Yes +7,577Person County: Yes +7,172Currituck County: Yes +6,810Transylvania County: Yes +6,542Ashe County: Yes +6,422Jackson County: Yes +6,417Richmond County: Yes +6,111Pasquotank County: Yes +5,668Bladen County: Yes +5,337Hoke County: Yes +5,198Durham County: Yes +4,910Halifax County: Yes +4,893Montgomery County: Yes +4,728Madison County: Yes +4,574Edgecombe County: Yes +4,531Polk County: Yes +4,427Vance County: Yes +4,329Yancey County: Yes +4,268Scotland County: Yes +4,082Avery County: Yes +4,045Caswell County: Yes +3,914Mitchell County: Yes +3,861Martin County: Yes +3,534Clay County: Yes +3,152Pamlico County: Yes +2,930Perquimans County: Yes +2,887Anson County: Yes +2,849Alleghany County: Yes +2,808Greene County: Yes +2,726Chowan County: Yes +2,521Camden County: Yes +2,490Swain County: Yes +2,288Graham County: Yes +2,207Warren County: Yes +2,088Northampton County: Yes +2,073Bertie County: Yes +1,989Gates County: Yes +1,906Jones County: Yes +1,822Hertford County: Yes +1,737Washington County: Yes +1,431Hyde County: Yes +811Tyrrell County: Yes +577
Yes +1,476,272 net votes from 100 countiesStatewide Yes +35.5, a 1,476,272 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

4,159,484 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes2,817,87867.7%
No1,341,60632.3%
Total4,159,484100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Wake County305,898186,347492,24562.1%
Mecklenburg County252,618165,649418,26760.4%
Guilford County132,33077,705210,03563.0%
Forsyth County97,16152,502149,66364.9%
Durham County74,05369,143143,19651.7%
Buncombe County78,27747,299125,57662.3%
New Hanover County69,34733,442102,78967.5%
Cumberland County66,25235,921102,17364.8%
Union County70,32126,65596,97672.5%
Johnston County61,35224,11085,46271.8%
Cabarrus County58,32126,06084,38169.1%
Gaston County60,35822,94383,30172.5%
Brunswick County56,27521,43377,70872.4%
Iredell County56,70419,98776,69173.9%
Orange County39,11931,41470,53355.5%
Alamance County45,41220,21265,62469.2%
Davidson County50,23215,12165,35376.9%
Pitt County42,06021,29563,35566.4%
Catawba County45,80215,27161,07375.0%
Onslow County42,39914,43756,83674.6%
Rowan County39,86313,58553,44874.6%
Randolph County42,17411,19553,36979.0%
Henderson County37,33915,66753,00670.4%
Moore County33,35612,13345,48973.3%
Harnett County31,59811,99643,59472.5%
Craven County29,08911,52740,61671.6%
Wayne County28,19611,63439,83070.8%
Chatham County25,80613,87239,67865.0%
Lincoln County29,8739,15039,02376.6%
Nash County26,24512,38538,63067.9%
Cleveland County27,1819,35936,54074.4%
Rockingham County26,4299,01135,44074.6%
Carteret County25,7298,11433,84376.0%
Burke County24,8858,01532,90075.6%
Robeson County23,3378,64931,98673.0%
Caldwell County23,8326,72030,55278.0%
Franklin County21,0388,91029,94870.2%
Wilson County19,4989,38328,88167.5%
Haywood County20,2907,70027,99072.5%
Surry County21,0165,87526,89178.2%
Pender County19,5976,74426,34174.4%
Wilkes County20,9585,38226,34079.6%
Stanly County19,9845,76025,74477.6%
Rutherford County19,4315,81125,24277.0%
Watauga County16,6508,43225,08266.4%
Granville County16,4847,25423,73869.4%
Lee County15,1826,20121,38371.0%
Lenoir County13,8816,25820,13968.9%
Sampson County14,6115,30519,91673.4%
Beaufort County14,5105,19819,70873.6%
Columbus County14,5795,10519,68474.1%
Stokes County15,4283,96219,39079.6%
Davie County14,7064,45419,16076.8%
Dare County13,1595,30818,46771.3%
Edgecombe County11,0856,55417,63962.8%
Halifax County11,2186,32517,54363.9%
McDowell County13,1863,87817,06477.3%
Jackson County11,4595,04216,50169.4%
Duplin County12,0714,41916,49073.2%
Macon County12,3254,10716,43275.0%
Transylvania County11,4564,91416,37070.0%
Person County11,6634,49116,15472.2%
Hoke County10,5265,32815,85466.4%
Alexander County12,3213,15215,47379.6%
Pasquotank County10,4714,80315,27468.6%
Yadkin County11,8982,93014,82880.2%
Vance County9,4445,11514,55964.9%
Richmond County10,1134,00214,11571.6%
Cherokee County10,2952,71813,01379.1%
Currituck County9,7032,89312,59677.0%
Bladen County8,8603,52312,38371.5%
Ashe County9,3152,89312,20876.3%
Scotland County7,4253,34310,76869.0%
Madison County7,4422,86810,31072.2%
Polk County7,1372,7109,84772.5%
Montgomery County7,1012,3739,47475.0%
Martin County6,2722,7389,01069.6%
Yancey County6,5252,2578,78274.3%
Caswell County6,3342,4208,75472.4%
Anson County5,3622,5137,87568.1%
Warren County4,8732,7857,65863.6%
Hertford County4,5042,7677,27161.9%
Avery County5,6391,5947,23378.0%
Northampton County4,5792,5067,08564.6%
Bertie County4,4522,4636,91564.4%
Mitchell County5,2931,4326,72578.7%
Greene County4,5911,8656,45671.1%
Pamlico County4,5411,6116,15273.8%
Chowan County4,1321,6115,74371.9%
Clay County4,4461,2945,74077.5%
Perquimans County4,2961,4095,70575.3%
Swain County3,7191,4315,15072.2%
Alleghany County3,9231,1155,03877.9%
Camden County3,4981,0084,50677.6%
Washington County2,9051,4744,37966.3%
Gates County3,1371,2314,36871.8%
Jones County2,9281,1064,03472.6%
Graham County2,9077003,60780.6%
Hyde County1,3325211,85371.9%
Tyrrell County9513741,32571.8%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Elon University Poll / YouGov LV2026-08-3167181671.6%
YouGov1,000 A67
How this is built
Income Tax Cap Amendment is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Carolina's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: s3.amazonaws.com, theballotbrief.com, ncnewsline.com, elon.edu. All measures.