2026 state legislative forecast

Hawaii Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Hawaii Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. 17 of the 25 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 8 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 25On the ballot 17Hawaii House All chambers

Chance of control

>99%D<1%R

Democratic seats, 80% range

23 to 23

Median 23 · 13 for a majority

Favored to flip

0to D0to R

After 2024: 20 D, 2 R

Environment

D +15.6

Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Hawaii Senate map

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 23 D to 2 R

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up

Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations

Every Senate district

District	Last winner	2026 nominees	2024 lean	Forecast	Dem win	Projected D votes	Projected R votes	Total	Rating
No districts match.

Projected Hawaii Senate vote

17 seats on the ballot

Party	Votes	Share
Democrats	286,601	90.0%
Republicans	30,056	9.4%
Independents and others	1,803	0.6%
Total	318,460	100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built

Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.