2026 ballot measure forecast
New Mexico Constitutional Amendment 3
Nominating committee for university regents
Creates nominating committees to recommend university regents to the governor and bars recent party switchers from serving. The forecast has Yes at 65.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
94%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.2%80% range 52 to 76
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 65.2% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 65.2% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Co-sponsored by Sen. Jeff Steinborn (D).
Also on the New Mexico ballot
Constitutional Amendment 1
End pocket veto, require veto explanations
97%
Constitutional Amendment 2
Allow school elections with partisan elections
84%
Constitutional Amendment 4
Tie legislator pay to median income
97%
Bond Question 1
Senior citizen facilities bond
95%
Bond Question 2
Library acquisitions bond
94%
Bond Question 3
Higher education and tribal schools bond
93%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +233,578 net votes from 33 countiesStatewide Yes +30.4, a 233,578 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
769,436 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 501,507 | 65.2% |
| No | 267,929 | 34.8% |
| Total | 769,436 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo County | 173,768 | 87,075 | 260,843 | 66.6% |
| Santa Fe County | 49,792 | 21,862 | 71,654 | 69.5% |
| Doña Ana County | 45,442 | 23,881 | 69,323 | 65.6% |
| Sandoval County | 41,739 | 22,298 | 64,037 | 65.2% |
| San Juan County | 26,325 | 16,478 | 42,803 | 61.5% |
| Valencia County | 17,209 | 10,070 | 27,279 | 63.1% |
| McKinley County | 14,477 | 7,141 | 21,618 | 67.0% |
| Otero County | 12,686 | 7,773 | 20,459 | 62.0% |
| Eddy County | 11,100 | 7,849 | 18,949 | 58.6% |
| Chaves County | 11,148 | 7,426 | 18,574 | 60.0% |
| Lea County | 9,935 | 7,284 | 17,219 | 57.7% |
| Taos County | 10,050 | 4,440 | 14,490 | 69.4% |
| Rio Arriba County | 9,153 | 4,620 | 13,773 | 66.5% |
| Curry County | 7,634 | 5,029 | 12,663 | 60.3% |
| Grant County | 7,795 | 4,177 | 11,972 | 65.1% |
| San Miguel County | 6,802 | 3,309 | 10,111 | 67.3% |
| Los Alamos County | 6,808 | 3,272 | 10,080 | 67.5% |
| Lincoln County | 5,205 | 3,360 | 8,565 | 60.8% |
| Cibola County | 5,081 | 2,762 | 7,843 | 64.8% |
| Luna County | 4,239 | 2,508 | 6,747 | 62.8% |
| Socorro County | 3,933 | 2,185 | 6,118 | 64.3% |
| Torrance County | 3,555 | 2,292 | 5,847 | 60.8% |
| Roosevelt County | 3,300 | 2,183 | 5,483 | 60.2% |
| Colfax County | 3,145 | 1,823 | 4,968 | 63.3% |
| Sierra County | 3,090 | 1,831 | 4,921 | 62.8% |
| Quay County | 1,900 | 1,244 | 3,144 | 60.4% |
| Mora County | 1,470 | 749 | 2,219 | 66.2% |
| Catron County | 1,177 | 806 | 1,983 | 59.4% |
| Guadalupe County | 1,071 | 584 | 1,655 | 64.7% |
| Hidalgo County | 982 | 591 | 1,573 | 62.4% |
| Union County | 859 | 596 | 1,455 | 59.0% |
| De Baca County | 418 | 289 | 707 | 59.1% |
| Harding County | 219 | 142 | 361 | 60.7% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 3 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with New Mexico's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.nm.gov, sourcenm.com. All measures.