2026 forecast · Florida 10th

Maxwell Frost is unopposed for Florida's 10th District.

Maxwell Frost vs No Republican on the ballot. The seat is uncontested.

Safe DModel D +100.0Updated October 22, 2026
Maxwell Frost
Democrat
100.0%
287,501 projected votes
RatingSafe D100% chance for Frost
Model marginUncontestedNo polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +100.0 to D +100.02,000 simulations
Projected votes287,501Frost 100.0%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Florida districts

28 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Maxwell FrostDemocrat · 100% to win
100.0%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

287,501 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Maxwell Frost D287,501100.0%
No Republican on the ballot R00.0%
Total287,501100%

Uncontested by one of the major parties.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Frost0% ballot11 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Florida governor polling average
36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%MayJunJulAugSepOct43.0Jolly48.3Donalds
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Fabrizio Lee for Donalds (R)Oct 11 · 1,200 LV · A18%Donalds +6.0
On Point PollingOct 18 · 378 LV · Gold17%Donalds +4.2
MDW Communications (D)Oct 10 · 2,351 LV · NR15%Donalds +2.1
University of North FloridaOct 19 · 1,471 LV · NR11%Donalds +2.0
Targoz Market Research (R)Oct 4 · 1,000 LV · C+10%Donalds +10.0
co/efficient (R)Oct 20 · 1,014 LV · C+7.0%Donalds +9.0
Every other poll together: 21%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Uncontested
Chance of winning
Maxwell Frost100%
No Republican on the ballot0%
Simulated vote
Maxwell Frost100.0%
No Republican on the ballot0.0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +23.0
FundamentalsD +100.0
With pollsD +100.0

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +28R +28Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +23.0
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.