Chris Pappas is very likely to win New Hampshire's Senate seat.
Chris Pappas vs John E. Sununu, an open seat. The model has Pappas ahead by 10.4 points, winning 94 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
689,190 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas D | 372,999 | 54.1% |
| John E. Sununu R | 301,442 | 43.7% |
| Other / write-in O | 14,749 | 2.1% |
| Total | 689,190 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.8 and D +2.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +8.9 | |
| National Public Affairs | 600 LV | 3d | D +7.050 to 43 |
| YouGov | 1,520 LV | 10d | D +8.051 to 43 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 979 LV | 11d | D +5.049 to 44 |
| Saint Anselm College for AARP | 1,042 LV | 16d | D +7.051 to 44 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)Lean R | 1,082 LV | 18d | D +6.947.4 to 40.5 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 613 LV | 23d | D +5.050 to 45 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,418 LV | 24d | D +8.050 to 42 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)Lean R | 1,200 LV | 28d | D +8.048 to 40 |
| co/efficient (R) | 958 LV | 34d | Even46 to 46 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1,000 LV | 35d | D +11.045 to 34 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | 600 LV | 46d | R +1.036 to 37 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,878 LV | 52d | R +2.043 to 45 |
| Saint Anselm College | 1,411 LV | 58d | D +7.048 to 41 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 500 LV | 110d | D +1.043 to 42 |
| Saint Anselm College | 1,614 RV | 112d | D +6.047 to 41 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2,232 LV | 114d | D +3.047 to 44 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2,053 LV | 269d | D +5.3 |
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | 603 RV | 291d | D +5.7 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 600 LV | 308d | D +3.0 |
| Saint Anselm College | 2,212 RV | 330d | D +2.5 |
| co/efficient | 1,034 LV | 367d | D +5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,235 LV | 387d | D +6.3 |
| co/efficient | 904 LV | 398d | D +5.0 |
| 1892 Polling | 500 LV | 406d | D +2.0 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
New Hampshire has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
93 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Jeanne ShaheenU.S. Senator, NH (retiring)source
- John LynchFormer NH Governorsource
- Kamala HarrisFormer Vice Presidentsource
- Pete ButtigiegFormer Transportation Secretarysource
- Maggie HassanU.S. Senator, NHsource
- Elizabeth WarrenU.S. Senator, MAsource
- Amy KlobucharU.S. Senator, MNsource
- Mark KellyU.S. Senator, AZsource
Dave Wasserman: Said he is skeptical the Sununu versus Pappas Senate race is truly competitive. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Pappas | Sununu |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 47.6 | 50.2 |
| Women | 55% | 58.4 | 39.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 11% | 55.9 | 41.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 19% | 51.0 | 46.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 36% | 51.1 | 46.7 |
| 65+ | 35% | 56.6 | 41.3 |
| RaceWhite | 91% | 51.3 | 46.5 |
| Black | 1% | 86.7 | 11.2 |
| Latino | 3% | 69.2 | 28.6 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 78.1 | 19.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 41% | 44.6 | 53.3 |
| White women | 50% | 56.8 | 41.0 |
| Latino men | 2% | 67.6 | 30.2 |
| Latino women | 2% | 70.8 | 27.0 |
| All other races | 5% | 78.1 | 19.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
10 counties| County | Pappas | Sununu | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 372,910 | 301,308 | 14,972 | 689,190 | D +10.4 |
| Hillsborough | 104,616 | 85,759 | 4,482 | 194,857 | D +9.8 |
| Rockingham County | 88,728 | 76,348 | 3,369 | 168,445 | D +7.4 |
| Merrimack County | 43,136 | 33,169 | 1,637 | 77,942 | D +12.9 |
| Strafford County | 37,324 | 24,951 | 1,531 | 63,806 | D +19.6 |
| Grafton County | 28,684 | 17,667 | 1,043 | 47,394 | D +23.4 |
| Cheshire County | 21,833 | 15,048 | 946 | 37,827 | D +18.0 |
| Belknap County | 15,375 | 17,872 | 644 | 33,891 | R +7.3 |
| Carroll County | 15,150 | 13,750 | 530 | 29,430 | D +4.8 |
| Sullivan County | 10,629 | 10,042 | 486 | 21,157 | D +2.7 |
| Coos County | 7,435 | 6,702 | 304 | 14,441 | D +5.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.