SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2

Every poll, on one board

House districts, Senate races, governor races and the national averages, all current polling: each average is a robust LOWESS fit through every public poll, weighted by recency with a 16 day half life, sample size, voter screen and pollster grade, then refit three times so outlying polls count for less.

Find a poll

Tap a state, a sticky note or a race in the list. Colour is the current On Point average: pale when close, deep when safe.

Small statesNHPappas+7.7MAMarkey+24.5RIReed+33.9KeySafe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe RLean INew Hampshire SenatePappas+7.722 polls · Likely DMassachusetts SenateMarkey+24.513 polls · Safe DRhode Island SenateReed+33.96 polls · Safe DClosest racesDrawing the map
Every race31
  1. NENebraskaOsborn vs. RickettsRicketts+0.311 polls
  2. TXTexasPaxton vs. TalaricoTalarico+0.97 polls
  3. IAIowaTurek vs. HinsonTurek+1.634 polls · 3 new
  4. TXTexasTalarico vs. PaxtonTalarico+1.957 polls · 3 new
  5. TXTexasCornyn vs. TalaricoTalarico+2.07 polls
  6. KSKansasHamilton vs. MarshallHamilton+3.015 polls · 1 new
  7. SCSouth CarolinaAndrews vs. GrahamAndrews+3.17 polls · 2 new
  8. AKAlaskaPeltola vs. SullivanPeltola+3.525 polls · 2 new
  9. OHOhioBrown vs. HustedBrown+3.931 polls · 3 new
  10. LALouisianaDavis vs. LetlowLetlow+4.02 polls
  11. MEMaineJackson vs. CollinsJackson+4.122 polls
  12. MIMichiganEl-Sayed vs. RogersEl-Sayed+4.141 polls · 2 new
  13. MTMontanaBodnar vs. AlmeAlme+4.614 polls
  14. MNMinnesotaFlanagan vs. TafoyaFlanagan+5.513 polls · 1 new
  15. FLFloridaNixon vs. MoodyMoody+6.016 polls · 4 new
  16. MSMississippiColom vs. Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith+6.02 polls
  17. NHNew HampshirePappas vs. SununuPappas+7.722 polls
  18. KYKentuckyBooker vs. BarrBarr+9.02 polls
  19. ARArkansasShoffner vs. CottonCotton+9.76 polls
  20. GAGeorgiaOssoff vs. CollinsOssoff+9.717 polls · 2 new
  21. SDSouth DakotaBengs vs. RoundsRounds+9.79 polls · 2 new
  22. NCNorth CarolinaCooper vs. WhatleyCooper+10.343 polls
  23. ILIllinoisStratton vs. TracyStratton+13.01 polls
  24. NMNew MexicoLuján vs. MarkerLuján+16.13 polls
  25. VAVirginiaWarner vs. MizusawaWarner+18.62 polls
  26. TNTennesseeBradshaw vs. HagertyHagerty+20.01 polls
  27. IDIdahoAchilles vs. RischRisch+20.57 polls · 1 new
  28. ALAlabamaWess vs. MooreMoore+21.23 polls · 1 new
  29. OKOklahomaThomas vs. HernHern+24.01 polls
  30. MAMassachusettsMarkey vs. DeatonMarkey+24.513 polls · 1 new
  31. RIRhode IslandReed vs. McKayReed+33.96 polls