Hannah Pingree is very likely to win Maine's governorship.
Hannah Pingree vs Bobby Charles, an open seat. The model has Pingree ahead by 10.8 points, winning 96 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
740,821 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Hannah Pingree D | 388,927 | 52.5% |
| Bobby Charles R | 308,407 | 41.6% |
| Rick Bennett I | 43,486 | 5.9% |
| Total | 740,821 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.2 and D +3.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +9.1 | |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 4d | D +11.049 to 38 |
| The Washington Post-Schar School | 800 LV | 10d | D +13.049 to 36 |
| Marist College | 1,505 RV | 11d | D +12.052 to 40 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 1,144 LV | 14d | D +12.056 to 44 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,240 LV | 15d | D +9.047 to 38 |
| Maine People's Resource Center (D) | 684 LV | 16d | D +16.149.9 to 33.8 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP | 982 LV | 23d | D +13.052 to 39 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 619 LV | 23d | D +13.047 to 34 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,312 LV | 24d | D +8.048 to 40 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 650 LV | 31d | D +11.049 to 38 |
| YouGov | 1,335 LV | 37d | D +11.047 to 36 |
| SSRS | 880 LV | 39d | D +13.052 to 39 |
| Beacon Research / Shaw & Co. | 1,000 RV | 66d | D +11.049 to 38 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,178 LV | 87d | D +14.049 to 35 |
| New York Times / Portland Press Herald / Siena | 608 LV | 111d | D +14.050 to 36 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 136,065 ballots cast so far in Maine, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
39 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Ryan FecteauSpeaker of the Maine Housesource
- Abigail SpanbergerGovernor of Virginiasource
- Aaron FreyMaine Attorney Generalsource
- Janet MillsGovernor of Mainesource
- Angus KingU.S. Senator, Maine (Independent)source
- Shenna BellowsMaine Secretary of Statesource
- Roger KatzFormer Maine state senator (Republican)source
- Chris RectorFormer Maine state senator (Republican)source
- Christine Todd WhitmanFormer Governor of New Jersey and EPA Administratorsource
- William CohenFormer Defense Secretary and U.S. Senator (Republican)source
- Matthew PouliotMaine state senator (Republican)source
- Mary E. SmallFormer Maine state senator (Republican)source
- Lydia CraftsMaine state representative (Democrat)source
- Forward PartyPolitical partysource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Pingree | Charles |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 45% | 46.8 | 47.3 |
| Women | 55% | 57.2 | 36.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 11% | 54.5 | 39.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 51.2 | 43.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 50.0 | 44.1 |
| 65+ | 37% | 54.9 | 39.3 |
| RaceWhite | 94% | 51.1 | 43.1 |
| Latino | 2% | 68.5 | 25.9 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 74.4 | 18.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 44.7 | 49.5 |
| White women | 52% | 56.1 | 38.0 |
| All other races | 4% | 74.4 | 18.7 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
16 counties| County | Pingree | Charles | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 388,223 | 309,120 | 43,478 | 740,821 | D +10.7 |
| Cumberland County | 119,892 | 48,387 | 9,418 | 177,697 | D +40.5 |
| York County | 64,472 | 44,557 | 7,083 | 116,112 | D +17.4 |
| Penobscot County | 32,548 | 40,163 | 4,232 | 76,943 | R +9.6 |
| Kennebec County | 30,570 | 31,342 | 3,742 | 65,654 | R +1.1 |
| Androscoggin County | 22,841 | 26,215 | 3,354 | 52,410 | R +6.3 |
| Hancock County | 18,399 | 12,415 | 1,862 | 32,676 | D +18.3 |
| Aroostook County | 11,345 | 18,334 | 2,199 | 31,878 | R +22.0 |
| Oxford County | 12,566 | 15,499 | 2,474 | 30,539 | R +9.4 |
| Somerset County | 9,005 | 14,855 | 1,442 | 25,302 | R +23.1 |
| Knox County | 13,802 | 8,685 | 1,258 | 23,745 | D +21.8 |
| Waldo County | 11,421 | 9,831 | 1,261 | 22,513 | D +7.2 |
| Sagadahoc County | 13,210 | 7,561 | 1,325 | 22,096 | D +25.7 |
| Lincoln County | 11,935 | 8,836 | 1,139 | 21,910 | D +14.3 |
| Washington County | 5,989 | 8,952 | 1,194 | 16,135 | R +18.5 |
| Franklin County | 7,212 | 7,949 | 968 | 16,129 | R +4.5 |
| Piscataquis County | 3,016 | 5,539 | 527 | 9,082 | R +27.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.