2026 forecast · Arizona Secretary Of State
Adrian Fontes is all but certain to win Arizona's secretary of state race.
Adrian Fontes vs Alexander Kolodin, with Adrian Fontes running again. The model has Fontes ahead by 12.2 points, with a 99 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +12.2Polls D +5.9Updated October 22, 2026
Adrian Fontes
Democrat
55.3%
1,763,201 projected votes
Alexander Kolodin
Republican
43.2%
1,374,866 projected votes
99%Fontes
1%Kolodin
Fontes all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Fontes wins about 99 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Fontes +519,166 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide D +12.2, a 388,334 vote marginKolodin +130,832 net votes from 10 counties
Projected statewide vote
3,185,856 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Fontes D | 1,763,201 | 55.3% |
| Alexander Kolodin R | 1,374,866 | 43.2% |
| Duwayne Collier | 47,787 | 1.5% |
| Total | 3,185,856 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
15 counties| County | Fontes | Kolodin | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,763,201 | 1,374,867 | 47,788 | 3,185,856 | D +12.2 |
| Maricopa County | 1,106,757 | 790,989 | 28,899 | 1,926,645 | D +16.4 |
| Pima County | 320,541 | 163,069 | 7,365 | 490,975 | D +32.1 |
| Pinal County | 80,253 | 108,317 | 2,871 | 191,441 | R +14.7 |
| Yavapai County | 51,924 | 84,764 | 2,082 | 138,770 | R +23.7 |
| Mohave County | 27,032 | 73,641 | 1,533 | 102,206 | R +45.6 |
| Coconino County | 46,437 | 20,885 | 1,025 | 68,347 | D +37.4 |
| Yuma County | 31,103 | 32,338 | 966 | 64,407 | R +1.9 |
| Cochise County | 25,119 | 30,138 | 842 | 56,099 | R +8.9 |
| Navajo County | 23,002 | 24,345 | 721 | 48,068 | R +2.8 |
| Apache County | 21,709 | 8,542 | 461 | 30,712 | D +42.9 |
| Gila County | 9,363 | 16,506 | 394 | 26,263 | R +27.2 |
| Santa Cruz County | 12,111 | 4,904 | 259 | 17,274 | D +41.7 |
| Graham County | 4,176 | 9,915 | 215 | 14,306 | R +40.1 |
| La Paz County | 2,306 | 4,728 | 107 | 7,141 | R +33.9 |
| Greenlee County | 1,368 | 1,786 | 48 | 3,202 | R +13.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +19.4 and D +5.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +15.0 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +17.1 |
| With polls, 43% weight | D +12.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +19.4 and D +5.0.
Polls of the race
6 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Fontes | Kolodin | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equis Research | 1,214 RV | 2026-09-09 | 46 | 44 | D +2.0 |
| Arizona State University | 1,300 RV | 2026-09-04 | 39 | 35 | D +4.0 |
| HighGround, Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-08-18 | 43 | 35 | D +8.0 |
| Grayhouse (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-13 | 46 | 42 | D +4.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 39 | 38 | D +1.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 923 LV | 2026-08-13 | 41 | 35 | D +6.0 |