2026 ballot measure forecast
Alabama Statewide Amendment 2
Process for merging county school systems
Creates a constitutional process for merging neighboring county school systems, with a State Board of Education impact study and a protest and referendum procedure. The forecast has Yes at 60.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 84% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
84%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
60.1%80% range 47 to 72
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 60.1% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 60.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
The campaign
Sponsored by Rep. Terri Collins R; passed House 96 to 2 and Senate unanimously; no organized campaign reported.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +325,113 net votes from 67 countiesStatewide Yes +20.2, a 325,113 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
1,612,953 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 969,033 | 60.1% |
| No | 643,920 | 39.9% |
| Total | 1,612,953 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson County | 141,960 | 78,330 | 220,290 | 64.4% |
| Madison County | 85,458 | 51,028 | 136,486 | 62.6% |
| Mobile County | 77,725 | 47,849 | 125,574 | 61.9% |
| Baldwin County | 47,626 | 35,888 | 83,514 | 57.0% |
| Shelby County | 46,157 | 31,678 | 77,835 | 59.3% |
| Montgomery County | 46,059 | 23,318 | 69,377 | 66.4% |
| Tuscaloosa County | 38,751 | 24,253 | 63,004 | 61.5% |
| Lee County | 30,850 | 19,939 | 50,789 | 60.7% |
| Morgan County | 21,367 | 15,584 | 36,951 | 57.8% |
| Limestone County | 21,085 | 14,693 | 35,778 | 58.9% |
| Calhoun County | 20,229 | 14,147 | 34,376 | 58.8% |
| Houston County | 18,977 | 13,480 | 32,457 | 58.5% |
| Etowah County | 17,655 | 13,099 | 30,754 | 57.4% |
| St. Clair County | 17,059 | 13,353 | 30,412 | 56.1% |
| Lauderdale County | 17,358 | 12,585 | 29,943 | 58.0% |
| Elmore County | 17,062 | 12,403 | 29,465 | 57.9% |
| Cullman County | 15,379 | 13,913 | 29,292 | 52.5% |
| Marshall County | 14,946 | 12,393 | 27,339 | 54.7% |
| Talladega County | 14,675 | 9,731 | 24,406 | 60.1% |
| Walker County | 11,141 | 9,240 | 20,381 | 54.7% |
| Autauga County | 11,683 | 8,236 | 19,919 | 58.7% |
| DeKalb County | 10,720 | 9,060 | 19,780 | 54.2% |
| Colbert County | 11,161 | 7,873 | 19,034 | 58.6% |
| Blount County | 9,745 | 8,863 | 18,608 | 52.4% |
| Coffee County | 9,298 | 6,992 | 16,290 | 57.1% |
| Jackson County | 8,663 | 7,167 | 15,830 | 54.7% |
| Russell County | 9,439 | 5,398 | 14,837 | 63.6% |
| Tallapoosa County | 8,532 | 6,115 | 14,647 | 58.3% |
| Dale County | 8,144 | 5,927 | 14,071 | 57.9% |
| Chilton County | 7,488 | 6,223 | 13,711 | 54.6% |
| Covington County | 6,851 | 5,707 | 12,558 | 54.6% |
| Dallas County | 8,329 | 4,186 | 12,515 | 66.6% |
| Lawrence County | 6,516 | 5,037 | 11,553 | 56.4% |
| Escambia County | 6,470 | 4,559 | 11,029 | 58.7% |
| Chambers County | 6,375 | 4,038 | 10,413 | 61.2% |
| Pike County | 6,045 | 3,860 | 9,905 | 61.0% |
| Marion County | 4,954 | 4,541 | 9,495 | 52.2% |
| Clarke County | 5,670 | 3,498 | 9,168 | 61.8% |
| Geneva County | 4,867 | 4,232 | 9,099 | 53.5% |
| Cherokee County | 4,748 | 4,070 | 8,818 | 53.8% |
| Franklin County | 4,650 | 3,909 | 8,559 | 54.3% |
| Winston County | 4,001 | 3,756 | 7,757 | 51.6% |
| Randolph County | 4,258 | 3,346 | 7,604 | 56.0% |
| Barbour County | 4,635 | 2,833 | 7,468 | 62.1% |
| Marengo County | 4,702 | 2,748 | 7,450 | 63.1% |
| Monroe County | 4,525 | 2,864 | 7,389 | 61.2% |
| Henry County | 4,102 | 2,959 | 7,061 | 58.1% |
| Pickens County | 4,180 | 2,648 | 6,828 | 61.2% |
| Bibb County | 3,740 | 2,931 | 6,671 | 56.1% |
| Macon County | 4,505 | 2,005 | 6,510 | 69.2% |
| Butler County | 3,967 | 2,506 | 6,473 | 61.3% |
| Washington County | 3,552 | 2,628 | 6,180 | 57.5% |
| Fayette County | 3,250 | 2,701 | 5,951 | 54.6% |
| Hale County | 3,536 | 1,980 | 5,516 | 64.1% |
| Cleburne County | 2,709 | 2,544 | 5,253 | 51.6% |
| Choctaw County | 3,163 | 2,008 | 5,171 | 61.2% |
| Crenshaw County | 2,795 | 2,059 | 4,854 | 57.6% |
| Lamar County | 2,580 | 2,222 | 4,802 | 53.7% |
| Clay County | 2,594 | 2,121 | 4,715 | 55.0% |
| Conecuh County | 2,853 | 1,738 | 4,591 | 62.1% |
| Lowndes County | 2,901 | 1,426 | 4,327 | 67.0% |
| Sumter County | 2,908 | 1,404 | 4,312 | 67.4% |
| Wilcox County | 2,695 | 1,361 | 4,056 | 66.4% |
| Coosa County | 2,343 | 1,626 | 3,969 | 59.0% |
| Perry County | 2,309 | 1,107 | 3,416 | 67.6% |
| Bullock County | 2,173 | 1,025 | 3,198 | 67.9% |
| Greene County | 2,190 | 979 | 3,169 | 69.1% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Statewide Amendment 2 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alabama's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: alabamareflector.com, theballotbrief.com, sos.alabama.gov. All measures.