2026 forecast · South Dakota Governor

Larry Rhoden is very likely to win South Dakota's governorship.

Dan Ahlers vs Larry Rhoden. The model has Rhoden ahead by 10.0 points, winning 91 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Likely RModel R +10.0Polls R +12.7Updated October 22, 2026

Dan Ahlers

Democrat

44.2%

170,028 projected votes

Larry Rhoden

Republican

54.2%

208,410 projected votes

91%Rhoden

9%Ahlers

Rhoden very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Rhoden wins about 91 of 100

RatingLikely R91% chance for Rhoden

Model marginR +10.0Polls R +12.7

80 percent rangeR +0.3 to R +19.02,000 simulations

Projected votes384,435Rhoden 54.2%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

South Dakota Governor by county

D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Ahlers +15,830 net votes from 9 countiesStatewide R +10.2, a 39,092 vote marginRhoden +54,922 net votes from 57 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected statewide vote

384,435 votes

Candidate	Votes	Share
Larry Rhoden R	208,410	54.2%
Dan Ahlers D	170,028	44.2%
Other O	5,997	1.6%
Total	384,435	100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between R +0.3 and R +19.0. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The South Dakota governor polling average

Size dots by weight

The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)Oct 8 · 400 LV · NR70%Rhoden +10.0

Lake Research Partners (D)Aug 30 · 500 LV · NR23%Rhoden +7.0

Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman CenterOct 14 · 500 LV · D-7.7%Rhoden +20.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
On Point average	Weighted average		R +12.7
Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center	500 LV	1d	R +20.036 to 56
Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)	400 LV	7d	R +10.038 to 48
Lake Research Partners (D)	500 LV	46d	R +7.044 to 51

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin

Rhoden +10.0

Chance of winning

Dan Ahlers9%

Larry Rhoden91%

Simulated vote

Dan Ahlers44.2%

Larry Rhoden54.2%

Other1.6%

How the model gets there

Partisan leanR +29.9

FundamentalsR +3.1

With pollsR +9.4

Early vote turnoutR +0.6

With early voteR +10.0

Read from 31,562 ballots cast so far in South Dakota, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

22 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Dan Ahlers2

Joe BidenFormer Presidentsource
Rick KnobeFormer Sioux Falls mayorsource

Larry Rhoden20

Taylor RehfeldtSouth Dakota state representative, former assistant majority leadersource
Brian MuellerPennington County sheriffsource
Steve SwensonLincoln County sheriffsource
Alan DaleCorson County sheriffsource
Jonathan WaldnerEdmunds County sheriffsource
Kelly SerrPerkins County sheriffsource
Curt HamburgerPotter County sheriffsource
Josh BollWalworth County sheriffsource

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Ahlers	Rhoden
GenderMen	48%	40.9	57.5
Women	52%	49.1	49.3
Age18 to 29	12%	51.3	47.1
30 to 44	21%	45.9	52.5
45 to 64	33%	42.6	55.8
65+	34%	45.1	53.4
RaceWhite	89%	41.6	56.8
Black	2%	87.9	10.6
Latino	2%	61.5	36.9
Asian and other	8%	72.8	25.3
Race and genderWhite men	42%	36.3	62.2
White women	47%	46.4	52.0
Latino men	1%	59.5	38.8
Latino women	1%	63.6	34.9
All other races	8%	72.8	25.3

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

66 counties

County	Ahlers	Rhoden	Other	Total	Margin
Statewide	169,669	208,761	6,005	384,435	R +10.2
Minnehaha County	45,694	36,338	1,249	83,281	D +10.7
Pennington County	22,348	27,000	956	50,304	R +9.6
Lincoln County	14,349	16,704	378	31,431	R +7.9
Brown County	7,300	7,953	201	15,454	R +4.5
Brookings County	6,646	7,095	209	13,950	R +3.5
Lawrence County	5,318	7,960	271	13,549	R +19.8
Meade County	4,087	8,792	303	13,182	R +35.9
Codington County	4,504	7,372	181	12,057	R +24.1
Yankton County	4,514	5,155	177	9,846	R +6.8
Davison County	3,097	4,884	105	8,086	R +22.5
Hughes County	3,119	4,670	118	7,907	R +20.2
Union County	3,126	4,322	106	7,554	R +16.1
Beadle County	2,601	3,763	116	6,480	R +18.2
Clay County	3,563	1,985	90	5,638	D +27.8
Lake County	2,253	2,998	69	5,320	R +14.4
Custer County	1,944	3,279	91	5,314	R +25.1
Butte County	1,217	3,238	95	4,550	R +44.4
Turner County	1,404	2,586	69	4,059	R +29.1
Fall River County	1,386	2,372	81	3,839	R +25.6
Roberts County	1,886	1,873	46	3,805	D +0.6
Hutchinson County	861	2,468	37	3,366	R +47.7
Charles Mix County	1,223	2,090	37	3,350	R +26.0
Grant County	1,216	2,073	40	3,329	R +25.8
Oglala Lakota County	2,876	313	68	3,257	D +78.2
Hamlin County	788	2,020	40	2,848	R +43.6
Spink County	1,074	1,724	40	2,838	R +22.8
Moody County	1,242	1,542	42	2,826	R +11.1
Bon Homme County	958	1,792	36	2,786	R +29.7
McCook County	923	1,708	40	2,671	R +29.4
Day County	1,141	1,450	32	2,623	R +11.7
Kingsbury County	938	1,606	36	2,580	R +26.2
Tripp County	558	1,854	25	2,437	R +53.1
Walworth County	645	1,572	29	2,246	R +41.1
Brule County	834	1,361	32	2,227	R +23.7
Todd County	1,840	333	47	2,220	D +67.7
Gregory County	545	1,511	25	2,081	R +46.1
Deuel County	688	1,348	33	2,069	R +32.2
Marshall County	912	1,008	18	1,938	R +4.5
Edmunds County	533	1,268	20	1,821	R +40.1
Hanson County	514	1,169	18	1,701	R +38.6
Dewey County	1,064	592	26	1,682	D +27.5
Clark County	486	1,161	22	1,669	R +40.4
Hand County	423	1,120	19	1,562	R +44.3
Stanley County	520	999	21	1,540	R +31.3
Douglas County	253	1,247	12	1,512	R +65.2
Perkins County	292	1,124	31	1,447	R +56.4
Lyman County	531	819	21	1,371	R +20.5
Aurora County	400	815	23	1,238	R +33.0
Potter County	267	896	12	1,175	R +53.0
McPherson County	252	899	13	1,164	R +55.2
Corson County	549	490	19	1,058	D +5.6
Sanborn County	334	711	13	1,058	R +34.8
Miner County	372	656	14	1,042	R +27.4
Bennett County	479	540	20	1,039	R +5.3
Haakon County	136	871	9	1,016	R +71.7
Faulk County	243	758	11	1,012	R +50.5
Jackson County	380	596	16	992	R +21.8
Jerauld County	311	564	12	887	R +28.4
Sully County	228	567	12	807	R +41.6
Ziebach County	411	315	17	743	D +12.5
Campbell County	153	570	8	731	R +55.5
Mellette County	295	369	16	680	R +11.4
Harding County	73	590	10	673	R +76.6
Hyde County	154	445	5	604	R +46.8
Jones County	93	379	7	479	R +59.0
Buffalo County	305	119	10	434	D +41.9

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology

Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.