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2026 forecast · Massachusetts 1st

Richard Neal is unopposed for Massachusetts's 1st District.

Richard Neal vs No Republican on the ballot. The seat is uncontested.

Safe DModel D +100.0Updated October 22, 2026
RatingSafe D100% chance for Neal
Model marginUncontestedNo polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +100.0 to D +100.02,000 simulations
Projected votes325,642Neal 0.0%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Massachusetts districts

9 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected district vote

325,642 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Richard Neal D00.0%
No Republican on the ballot R00.0%
Total325,642100%

Uncontested by one of the major parties.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Neal0% ballot11 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Massachusetts governor polling average
25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%JulAugSepOct55.9Healey33.9Minogue
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
UMass Amherst / YouGovAug 12 · 800 RV · C18%Healey +20.0
MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth BeaconSep 22 · 800 LV · B17%Healey +22.0
UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGovOct 12 · 800 RV · C17%Healey +25.0
University of New HampshireAug 24 · 881 LV · C-17%Healey +24.0
Suffolk University/Boston GlobeOct 18 · 500 LV · B+15%Healey +22.6
University of New HampshireSep 21 · 564 LV · C-15%Healey +16.0
Every other poll together: 0.9%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Uncontested
Chance of winning
Richard Neal100%
No Republican on the ballot0%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +14.0
FundamentalsD +100.0
With pollsD +100.0

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +17R +17Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +14.0
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.