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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

North Carolina Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the North Carolina Senate in 74% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 50 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Likely RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 50On the ballot 50North Carolina HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
14%D74%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
21 to 26
Median 23 ยท 26 for a majority
Favored to flip
3to D0to R
After 2024: 20 D, 30 R
Environment
D +9.1
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

North Carolina Senate map

District 1: Democrats 23%District 2: Democrats 16%District 3: Democrats 6%District 4: Democrats 49%District 5: Democrats >99%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats 76%District 8: Democrats 4%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats 4%District 11: Democrats 85%District 12: Democrats 2%District 13: Democrats >99%District 14: Democrats >99%District 15: Democrats >99%District 16: Democrats >99%District 17: Democrats >99%District 18: Democrats 95%District 19: Democrats >99%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats 1%District 22: Democrats >99%District 23: Democrats >99%District 24: Democrats 15%District 25: Democrats 6%District 26: Democrats 1%District 27: Democrats >99%District 28: Democrats >99%District 29: Democrats <1%District 30: Democrats <1%District 31: Democrats 1%District 32: Democrats >99%District 33: Democrats <1%District 34: Democrats 58%District 35: Democrats <1%District 36: Democrats <1%District 37: Democrats <1%District 38: Democrats >99%District 39: Democrats >99%District 40: Democrats >99%District 41: Democrats >99%District 42: Democrats >99%District 43: Democrats 2%District 44: Democrats <1%District 45: Democrats <1%District 46: Democrats <1%District 47: Democrats <1%District 48: Democrats <1%District 49: Democrats >99%District 50: Democrats <1%1234568910111218192021232425262729303133353644454647484950
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 24 D to 27 R
District 14: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 16: Democrats win >99%District 17: Democrats win >99%District 19: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win >99%District 27: Democrats win >99%District 28: Democrats win >99%District 32: Democrats win >99%District 38: Democrats win >99%District 39: Democrats win >99%District 40: Democrats win >99%District 41: Democrats win >99%District 49: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win >99%District 5: Democrats win >99%District 42: Democrats win >99%District 18: Democrats win 95%District 11: Democrats win 85%District 7: Democrats win 76%District 34: Democrats win 58%District 4: Democrats win 49%District 1: Democrats win 23%District 2: Democrats win 16%District 24: Democrats win 15%District 3: Democrats win 6%District 25: Democrats win 6%District 10: Democrats win 4%District 8: Democrats win 4%District 43: Democrats win 2%District 12: Democrats win 2%District 26: Democrats win 1%District 21: Democrats win 1%District 31: Democrats win 1%District 35: Democrats win <1%District 48: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 50: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 36: Democrats win <1%District 44: Democrats win <1%District 45: Democrats win <1%District 46: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
26 for a majority1722263135

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
4Buck Newton 2024Jessica "Jess" Rivera vs Buck NewtonR +10.1R +0.449%37,77338,05476,982Toss up
34Paul Newton 2024April Cook vs Kevin CrutchfieldR +7.9D +1.458%44,32443,13488,790Toss up
7Michael Lee 2024Jessica Bichler vs Michael LeeR +1.1D +4.976%51,60546,81299,916Lean D
1Bobby Hanig 2024Melissa Zehner vs Jerry TillettR +15.0R +5.023%39,57043,70984,548Lean R
2Norman W Sanderson 2024Roy Surrett vs Norman SandersonR +16.8R +5.916%39,96845,01786,279Lean R
24Danny Earl Britt Jr 2024Catina Hamm vs Danny Earl Britt Jr.R +15.1R +6.615%28,86632,93962,746Likely R
11Lisa Stone Barnes 2024James D. Gailliard vs Lisa Stone BarnesR +3.5D +6.885%45,17439,44585,908Likely D
3Bob Brinson 2024Charles Dudley vs Bob BrinsonR +19.9R +10.46%36,10944,46481,800Likely R
25Amy Scott Galey 2024Southey Blanton vs Amy Scott GaleyR +19.7R +10.56%37,79846,65885,742Likely R
18Terence Everitt 2024Haseeb Fatmi vs Chris StockD +1.8D +10.795%41,18433,19675,512Likely D

Projected North Carolina Senate vote

50 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats2,312,33054.4%
Republicans1,879,98744.3%
Independents and others55,6731.3%
Total4,247,983100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

Legislative ballot polls

Weight 50%
PollsterField endDR
Change Research for Carolina Forward2026-05-084741
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation2026-05-1147.541.3
Catawba College / YouGov2026-06-104537
Change Research for Carolina Forward2026-08-064841
High Point University Poll / YouGov2026-08-124846
High Point University Poll / YouGov2026-08-124543
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation2026-08-104842.6
High Point University Poll / YouGov2026-09-164944
High Point University Poll / YouGov2026-09-164742
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation2026-09-1549.541.3
Change Research for Carolina Forward2026-10-074942
Catawba College / YouGov2026-09-154838
High Point University Poll / YouGov2026-04-064844
High Point University Poll / YouGov2026-04-064642
High Point University Poll2026-02-204641
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation2026-03-2345.343.2
Change Research for Carolina Forward2026-01-074343
Elon University Poll / YouGov2026-03-204137
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.