2026 forecast ยท Texas Agriculture Commissioner

Nate Sheets is slightly favored to win Texas's agriculture commissioner race.

Clayton Tucker vs Nate Sheets, an open seat. The model has Sheets ahead by 2.1 points, with a 68 percent chance of winning.

Lean RModel R +2.1Polls R +3.9Updated October 22, 2026
Clayton Tucker
Democrat
47.0%
4,703,583 projected votes
Nate Sheets
Republican
49.2%
4,915,811 projected votes
68%Sheets
32%Tucker
Sheets favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Sheets wins about 68 of 100

Texas Agriculture Commissioner by county

Anderson CountyAndrews CountyAngelina CountyAransas CountyArcher CountyArmstrong CountyAtascosa CountyAustin CountyBailey CountyBandera CountyBastrop CountyBaylor CountyBee CountyBell CountyBexar CountyBlanco CountyBorden CountyBosque CountyBowie CountyBrazoria CountyBrazos CountyBrewster CountyBriscoe CountyBrooks CountyBrown CountyBurleson CountyBurnet CountyCaldwell CountyCalhoun CountyCallahan CountyCameron CountyCamp CountyCarson CountyCass CountyCastro CountyChambers CountyCherokee CountyChildress CountyClay CountyCochran CountyCoke CountyColeman CountyCollin CountyCollingsworth CountyColorado CountyComal CountyComanche CountyConcho CountyCooke CountyCoryell CountyCottle CountyCrane CountyCrockett CountyCrosby CountyCulberson CountyDallam CountyDallas CountyDawson CountyDeaf Smith CountyDelta CountyDenton CountyDeWitt CountyDickens CountyDimmit CountyDonley CountyDuval CountyEastland CountyEctor CountyEdwards CountyEllis CountyEl Paso CountyErath CountyFalls CountyFannin CountyFayette CountyFisher CountyFloyd CountyFoard CountyFort Bend CountyFranklin CountyFreestone CountyFrio CountyGaines CountyGalveston CountyGarza CountyGillespie CountyGlasscock CountyGoliad CountyGonzales CountyGray CountyGrayson CountyGregg CountyGrimes CountyGuadalupe CountyHale CountyHall CountyHamilton CountyHansford CountyHardeman CountyHardin CountyHarris CountyHarrison CountyHartley CountyHaskell CountyHays CountyHemphill CountyHenderson CountyHidalgo CountyHill CountyHockley CountyHood CountyHopkins CountyHouston CountyHoward CountyHudspeth CountyHunt CountyHutchinson CountyIrion CountyJack CountyJackson CountyJasper CountyJeff Davis CountyJefferson CountyJim Hogg CountyJim Wells CountyJohnson CountyJones CountyKarnes CountyKaufman CountyKendall CountyKenedy CountyKent CountyKerr CountyKimble CountyKing CountyKinney CountyKleberg CountyKnox CountyLamar CountyLamb CountyLampasas CountyLa Salle CountyLavaca CountyLee CountyLeon CountyLiberty CountyLimestone CountyLipscomb CountyLive Oak CountyLlano CountyLoving CountyLubbock CountyLynn CountyMcCulloch CountyMcLennan CountyMcMullen CountyMadison CountyMarion CountyMartin CountyMason CountyMatagorda CountyMaverick CountyMedina CountyMenard CountyMidland CountyMilam CountyMills CountyMitchell CountyMontague CountyMontgomery CountyMoore CountyMorris CountyMotley CountyNacogdoches CountyNavarro CountyNewton CountyNolan CountyNueces CountyOchiltree CountyOldham CountyOrange CountyPalo Pinto CountyPanola CountyParker CountyParmer CountyPecos CountyPolk CountyPotter CountyPresidio CountyRains CountyRandall CountyReagan CountyReal CountyRed River CountyReeves CountyRefugio CountyRoberts CountyRobertson CountyRockwall CountyRunnels CountyRusk CountySabine CountySan Augustine CountySan Jacinto CountySan Patricio CountySan Saba CountySchleicher CountyScurry CountyShackelford CountyShelby CountySherman CountySmith CountySomervell CountyStarr CountyStephens CountySterling CountyStonewall CountySutton CountySwisher CountyTarrant CountyTaylor CountyTerrell CountyTerry CountyThrockmorton CountyTitus CountyTom Green CountyTravis CountyTrinity CountyTyler CountyUpshur CountyUpton CountyUvalde CountyVal Verde CountyVan Zandt CountyVictoria CountyWalker CountyWaller CountyWard CountyWashington CountyWebb CountyWharton CountyWheeler CountyWichita CountyWilbarger CountyWillacy CountyWilliamson CountyWilson CountyWinkler CountyWise CountyWood CountyYoakum CountyYoung CountyZapata CountyZavala CountyHarrisDallasBexarTravisCollinFort BendWilliamsonMontgomeryEl PasoHidalgoBrazoriaBell
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom ยท arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Travis County: Tucker +305,598Dallas County: Tucker +302,084Harris County: Tucker +282,416Bexar County: Tucker +173,156El Paso County: Tucker +84,633Hidalgo County: Tucker +43,342Fort Bend County: Tucker +39,643Tarrant County: Tucker +38,719Williamson County: Tucker +23,178Hays County: Tucker +19,188Webb County: Tucker +16,914Cameron County: Tucker +16,510Starr County: Tucker +3,007Maverick County: Tucker +1,929Zavala County: Tucker +1,212Willacy County: Tucker +956Presidio County: Tucker +952Dimmit County: Tucker +935Duval County: Tucker +748Brooks County: Tucker +747Jim Hogg County: Tucker +505Zapata County: Tucker +412Brewster County: Tucker +107Frio County: Tucker +69Montgomery County: Sheets +106,102Parker County: Sheets +47,226Smith County: Sheets +37,975Comal County: Sheets +35,824Lubbock County: Sheets +35,534Johnson County: Sheets +33,424Randall County: Sheets +32,545Midland County: Sheets +28,960Grayson County: Sheets +28,388Galveston County: Sheets +27,639Ellis County: Sheets +26,615Brazoria County: Sheets +22,546Taylor County: Sheets +22,525McLennan County: Sheets +21,608Hunt County: Sheets +21,157Wise County: Sheets +21,088Henderson County: Sheets +20,672Rockwall County: Sheets +19,944Orange County: Sheets +19,767Hood County: Sheets +19,087Denton County: Sheets +19,062Van Zandt County: Sheets +17,582Hardin County: Sheets +17,169Kaufman County: Sheets +17,133Guadalupe County: Sheets +17,029Ector County: Sheets +17,009Tom Green County: Sheets +16,949Liberty County: Sheets +15,953Gregg County: Sheets +15,878Wood County: Sheets +14,472Wichita County: Sheets +14,384Angelina County: Sheets +14,110Bowie County: Sheets +13,704Kendall County: Sheets +13,605Kerr County: Sheets +12,962Burnet County: Sheets +12,454Chambers County: Sheets +12,363Harrison County: Sheets +12,325Victoria County: Sheets +12,020Cooke County: Sheets +11,565Upshur County: Sheets +11,424Polk County: Sheets +11,300Wilson County: Sheets +11,134Potter County: Sheets +10,895Rusk County: Sheets +10,811Lamar County: Sheets +10,762Cherokee County: Sheets +10,732Brazos County: Sheets +10,684Anderson County: Sheets +10,614Brown County: Sheets +10,607Erath County: Sheets +10,288Bell County: Sheets +9,344Fannin County: Sheets +9,240Hill County: Sheets +8,647Jasper County: Sheets +8,641Washington County: Sheets +8,605Gillespie County: Sheets +8,465Navarro County: Sheets +8,416Walker County: Sheets +8,390Hopkins County: Sheets +8,386Medina County: Sheets +8,363Austin County: Sheets +7,922Coryell County: Sheets +7,908Nacogdoches County: Sheets +7,786Palo Pinto County: Sheets +7,542Cass County: Sheets +7,512Montague County: Sheets +7,016Bandera County: Sheets +7,014Grimes County: Sheets +7,011Llano County: Sheets +7,006Fayette County: Sheets +6,978Wharton County: Sheets +6,830San Jacinto County: Sheets +6,752Lavaca County: Sheets +6,702San Patricio County: Sheets +6,252Panola County: Sheets +6,180Aransas County: Sheets +6,171Tyler County: Sheets +5,943Leon County: Sheets +5,863Atascosa County: Sheets +5,665Lampasas County: Sheets +5,545Hutchinson County: Sheets +5,487Waller County: Sheets +5,472Matagorda County: Sheets +5,434Eastland County: Sheets +5,344Young County: Sheets +5,321Gray County: Sheets +5,285Bosque County: Sheets +5,279Shelby County: Sheets +5,234Milam County: Sheets +5,095Freestone County: Sheets +5,053Burleson County: Sheets +4,931Howard County: Sheets +4,880Colorado County: Sheets +4,748Titus County: Sheets +4,708Hale County: Sheets +4,684Callahan County: Sheets +4,635Houston County: Sheets +4,505Jones County: Sheets +4,455DeWitt County: Sheets +4,451Hockley County: Sheets +4,324Lee County: Sheets +4,245Limestone County: Sheets +4,190Gaines County: Sheets +4,161Rains County: Sheets +4,014Trinity County: Sheets +3,966Comanche County: Sheets +3,961Clay County: Sheets +3,837Jackson County: Sheets +3,729Sabine County: Sheets +3,654Scurry County: Sheets +3,639Gonzales County: Sheets +3,534Andrews County: Sheets +3,533Blanco County: Sheets +3,524Bastrop County: Sheets +3,497Archer County: Sheets +3,338Robertson County: Sheets +3,240Calhoun County: Sheets +3,186Newton County: Sheets +3,099Franklin County: Sheets +3,021Live Oak County: Sheets +2,991Moore County: Sheets +2,952Madison County: Sheets +2,905Somervell County: Sheets +2,901Red River County: Sheets +2,836Jack County: Sheets +2,826Coleman County: Sheets +2,765Runnels County: Sheets +2,749Stephens County: Sheets +2,679Nolan County: Sheets +2,663Bee County: Sheets +2,646Hamilton County: Sheets +2,606Karnes County: Sheets +2,432Falls County: Sheets +2,381Camp County: Sheets +2,331Wilbarger County: Sheets +2,317Lamb County: Sheets +2,296Morris County: Sheets +2,153Carson County: Sheets +2,098McCulloch County: Sheets +2,094Ochiltree County: Sheets +2,038Goliad County: Sheets +1,948Terry County: Sheets +1,941Deaf Smith County: Sheets +1,934Marion County: Sheets +1,929Ward County: Sheets +1,884San Saba County: Sheets +1,851Dawson County: Sheets +1,847Uvalde County: Sheets +1,811Mills County: Sheets +1,779San Augustine County: Sheets +1,749Mitchell County: Sheets +1,694Wheeler County: Sheets +1,579Parmer County: Sheets +1,565Kimble County: Sheets +1,556Childress County: Sheets +1,553Delta County: Sheets +1,469Pecos County: Sheets +1,456Hartley County: Sheets +1,447Hansford County: Sheets +1,428Lynn County: Sheets +1,402Yoakum County: Sheets +1,402Haskell County: Sheets +1,367Mason County: Sheets +1,329Martin County: Sheets +1,238Val Verde County: Sheets +1,218Swisher County: Sheets +1,201Coke County: Sheets +1,196Shackelford County: Sheets +1,148Winkler County: Sheets +1,130Baylor County: Sheets +1,126Donley County: Sheets +1,087Floyd County: Sheets +1,085Real County: Sheets +1,059Castro County: Sheets +1,051Hemphill County: Sheets +1,042Dallam County: Sheets +1,033Garza County: Sheets +993Bailey County: Sheets +985Refugio County: Sheets +961Fisher County: Sheets +944Lipscomb County: Sheets +845Crane County: Sheets +838Hardeman County: Sheets +837Upton County: Sheets +826Armstrong County: Sheets +784Concho County: Sheets +762Knox County: Sheets +761Collingsworth County: Sheets +759Sutton County: Sheets +754Crosby County: Sheets +736Hall County: Sheets +726Sherman County: Sheets +663Oldham County: Sheets +653Schleicher County: Sheets +602Throckmorton County: Sheets +600Crockett County: Sheets +592Kinney County: Sheets +580Caldwell County: Sheets +578Dickens County: Sheets +577Menard County: Sheets +555Reagan County: Sheets +539Irion County: Sheets +511Briscoe County: Sheets +506Jefferson County: Sheets +493Motley County: Sheets +482Collin County: Sheets +477Glasscock County: Sheets +466Edwards County: Sheets +464Cochran County: Sheets +463Sterling County: Sheets +424Roberts County: Sheets +389Stonewall County: Sheets +389Cottle County: Sheets +386Reeves County: Sheets +363Hudspeth County: Sheets +310Foard County: Sheets +305Kent County: Sheets +279Borden County: Sheets +275Jim Wells County: Sheets +245McMullen County: Sheets +213Terrell County: Sheets +179Jeff Davis County: Sheets +149Nueces County: Sheets +144King County: Sheets +96Kleberg County: Sheets +69La Salle County: Sheets +27Loving County: Sheets +19Kenedy County: Sheets +18Culberson County: Sheets +13
Tucker +1,356,960 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide R +2.1, a 212,230 vote marginSheets +1,569,190 net votes from 230 counties

Projected statewide vote

9,998,925 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Nate Sheets R4,915,81149.2%
Clayton Tucker D4,703,58347.0%
Austin Kelly, Alfred Molison379,5303.8%
Total9,998,925100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

254 counties
CountyTuckerSheetsOtherTotalMargin
Statewide4,703,5834,915,813379,5209,998,916R +2.1
Harris County807,112524,69652,5461,384,354D +20.4
Dallas County525,347223,26329,536778,146D +38.8
Tarrant County365,874327,15527,343720,372D +5.4
Bexar County416,077242,92126,001684,999D +25.3
Travis County417,820112,22220,913550,955D +55.5
Collin County210,544211,02116,633438,198R +0.1
Denton County173,618192,68014,452380,750R +5.0
Fort Bend County167,504127,86111,653307,018D +12.9
Williamson County139,676116,49810,107266,281D +8.7
Montgomery County68,618174,7209,600252,938R +42.0
El Paso County154,02069,3878,815232,222D +36.4
Hidalgo County115,81972,4777,430195,726D +22.1
Brazoria County54,00976,5555,152135,716R +16.6
Galveston County51,06578,7045,121134,890R +20.5
Bell County50,49659,8404,354114,690R +8.2
Nueces County54,07954,2234,273112,575R +0.1
Hays County62,34943,1614,163109,673D +17.5
Lubbock County34,51970,0534,126108,698R +32.7
Cameron County59,25842,7484,025106,031D +15.6
Smith County24,33262,3073,41890,057R +42.2
McLennan County31,87753,4853,36888,730R +24.4
Comal County23,65259,4763,27986,407R +41.5
Ellis County25,72052,3353,07981,134R +32.8
Brazos County33,52644,2103,06680,802R +13.2
Jefferson County36,78137,2742,92176,976R +0.6
Parker County11,92859,1542,80573,887R +63.9
Guadalupe County25,28242,3112,66770,260R +24.2
Johnson County16,05349,4772,58668,116R +49.1
Webb County37,40020,4862,28460,170D +28.1
Randall County11,31743,8622,17757,356R +56.7
Kaufman County18,12535,2582,10755,490R +30.9
Grayson County11,96640,3542,06454,384R +52.2
Rockwall County14,61934,5631,94051,122R +39.0
Midland County9,99638,9561,93150,883R +56.9
Taylor County12,31234,8371,86149,010R +46.0
Gregg County11,63327,5111,54540,689R +39.0
Wichita County12,16726,5511,52740,245R +35.7
Tom Green County10,73127,6801,51639,927R +42.5
Hunt County7,90829,0651,45838,431R +55.0
Ector County8,82425,8331,36736,024R +47.2
Bastrop County15,19718,6941,33735,228R +9.9
Henderson County5,73126,4031,26833,402R +61.9
Bowie County8,68022,3841,22632,290R +42.4
Hood County5,42024,5071,18031,107R +61.4
Victoria County8,83120,8511,17130,853R +39.0
Orange County4,88724,6541,16530,706R +64.4
Wise County4,20225,2901,16430,656R +68.8
Angelina County7,26321,3731,13029,766R +47.4
Potter County8,75619,6511,12129,528R +36.9
Liberty County4,69120,6441,00026,335R +60.6
Harrison County6,16918,49497325,636R +48.1
Kerr County5,59218,55495325,099R +51.6
Kendall County5,13218,73794224,811R +54.8
Van Zandt County2,88620,46892124,275R +72.4
Walker County7,43915,82991824,186R +34.7
Burnet County5,27417,72890823,910R +52.1
Hardin County2,71019,87989123,480R +73.1
Nacogdoches County7,05314,83986322,755R +34.2
Coryell County6,96214,87086222,694R +34.8
Wilson County5,28416,41885622,558R +49.4
San Patricio County7,60513,85784722,309R +28.0
Waller County7,64313,11581821,576R +25.4
Wood County2,90517,37780121,083R +68.6
Medina County5,83114,19479020,815R +40.2
Polk County4,15915,45977420,392R +55.4
Chambers County3,15215,51573719,404R +63.7
Rusk County3,66814,47971618,863R +57.3
Lamar County3,55914,32170618,586R +57.9
Anderson County3,45214,06669018,208R +58.3
Cherokee County3,14013,87267217,684R +60.7
Cooke County2,62714,19266317,482R +66.2
Navarro County4,07312,48965417,216R +48.9
Upshur County2,37713,80163816,816R +67.9
Erath County2,59312,88161016,084R +64.0
Washington County3,35111,95660415,911R +54.1
Atascosa County4,77910,44460115,824R +35.8
Brown County1,81212,41956114,792R +71.7
Caldwell County6,6967,27455214,522R +4.0
Gillespie County2,73211,19755014,479R +58.5
Wharton County3,53110,36154814,440R +47.3
Starr County8,4085,40154514,354D +20.9
Hopkins County2,67511,06154214,278R +58.7
Fannin County2,12011,36053214,012R +65.9
Hill County2,40911,05653113,996R +61.8
Jasper County2,09310,73450713,334R +64.8
Maverick County7,3075,37850113,186D +14.6
Austin County2,26210,18449112,937R +61.2
Val Verde County5,5466,76448612,796R +9.5
Jim Wells County5,6885,93345912,080R +2.0
Llano County2,2989,30445812,060R +58.1
Cass County1,9689,48045211,900R +63.1
Matagorda County2,9498,38344611,778R +46.1
Grimes County2,1169,12744311,686R +60.0
Fayette County2,1179,09544211,654R +59.9
Bandera County2,0649,07844011,582R +60.6
Aransas County2,3798,55043211,361R +54.3
Palo Pinto County1,6679,20942911,305R +66.7
San Jacinto County1,9688,72042211,110R +60.8
Milam County2,1397,2343699,742R +52.3
Lampasas County1,8537,3983659,616R +57.7
Panola County1,5347,7143659,613R +64.3
Kleberg County4,5644,6333639,560R +0.7
Montague County9227,9383499,209R +76.2
Lavaca County1,0367,7383469,120R +73.5
Titus County1,9496,6573408,946R +52.6
Uvalde County3,3495,1603358,844R +20.5
Howard County1,7426,6223308,694R +56.1
Bee County2,8305,4763278,633R +30.6
Colorado County1,7676,5153278,609R +55.1
Hale County1,7286,4123218,461R +55.4
Shelby County1,4486,6823208,450R +62.0
Houston County1,7796,2843198,382R +53.8
Tyler County1,0597,0023188,379R +70.9
Bosque County1,3616,6403158,316R +63.5
Limestone County1,7695,9593058,033R +52.1
Burleson County1,3056,2362977,838R +62.9
Freestone County1,2176,2702967,783R +64.9
Leon County7446,6072897,640R +76.7
Lee County1,3635,6082757,246R +58.6
Eastland County8026,1462747,222R +74.0
Young County8056,1262737,204R +73.9
Hutchinson County7196,2062737,198R +76.2
Blanco County1,6545,1782707,102R +49.6
DeWitt County1,1795,6302697,078R +62.9
Robertson County1,7114,9512636,925R +46.8
Calhoun County1,7094,8952606,864R +46.4
Hockley County1,1295,4532606,842R +63.2
Gray County6175,9022586,777R +78.0
Gonzales County1,4184,9522516,621R +53.4
Jones County8755,3302456,450R +69.1
Trinity County1,0324,9982386,268R +63.3
Callahan County6035,2382306,071R +76.3
Falls County1,5613,9422175,720R +41.6
Rains County7274,7412165,684R +70.6
Comanche County7054,6662125,583R +70.9
Jackson County7904,5192095,518R +67.6
Willacy County3,0492,0932035,345D +17.9
Gaines County4034,5641955,162R +80.6
Scurry County6324,2711945,097R +71.4
Clay County5114,3481925,051R +76.0
Newton County8703,9691915,030R +61.6
Andrews County6384,1711904,999R +70.7
Red River County9583,7941884,940R +57.4
Sabine County4984,1521844,834R +75.6
Karnes County1,0703,5021804,752R +51.2
Frio County2,3102,2411794,730D +1.5
Madison County8223,7271804,729R +61.4
Morris County1,1673,3201774,664R +46.2
Nolan County9013,5641764,641R +57.4
Moore County7413,6931754,609R +64.0
Camp County1,0323,3631734,568R +51.0
Franklin County6673,6881714,526R +66.7
Live Oak County6623,6531704,485R +66.7
Somervell County7033,6041694,476R +64.8
Archer County4023,7401644,306R +77.5
Brewster County2,0961,9891614,246D +2.5
Pecos County1,2752,7311584,164R +35.0
Wilbarger County7813,0981534,032R +57.5
Zapata County2,1411,7291524,022D +10.2
Marion County9682,8971524,017R +48.0
Deaf Smith County9352,8691503,954R +48.9
Duval County2,2681,5201503,938D +19.0
Hamilton County5463,1521463,844R +67.8
Lamb County6322,9281413,701R +62.0
Runnels County3863,1351393,660R +75.1
Coleman County3533,1181373,608R +76.7
Goliad County7222,6701343,526R +55.2
Jack County2793,1051343,518R +80.3
Stephens County2722,9511283,351R +79.9
San Augustine County7112,4601253,296R +53.1
Dawson County6262,4731213,220R +57.4
Ward County5792,4631203,162R +59.6
Terry County5412,4821193,142R +61.8
Dimmit County1,9701,0351193,124D +29.9
Zavala County2,0828701163,068D +39.5
McCulloch County3992,4931143,006R +69.7
Reeves County1,2641,6271143,005R +12.1
Carson County2432,3411022,686R +78.1
Refugio County8011,7621022,665R +36.1
Ochiltree County2222,260982,580R +79.0
Mitchell County3192,013922,424R +69.9
San Saba County2322,083922,407R +76.9
Brooks County1,505758892,352D +31.8
Mills County2232,002872,312R +76.9
Parmer County3141,879862,279R +68.7
Delta County3501,819852,254R +65.2
Mason County3911,720832,194R +60.6
Childress County2331,786792,098R +74.0
Kimble County2291,785792,093R +74.4
Lynn County3041,706782,088R +67.1
Swisher County3971,598792,074R +57.9
Haskell County2901,657772,024R +67.5
Yoakum County2711,673772,021R +69.4
La Salle County951978762,005R +1.3
Wheeler County1471,726731,946R +81.1
Presidio County1,388436721,896D +50.2
Castro County3651,416701,851R +56.8
Hartley County1561,603691,828R +79.1
Floyd County2961,381671,744R +62.3
Hansford County1251,553661,744R +81.8
Winkler County2701,400661,736R +65.1
Martin County2131,451661,730R +71.6
Bailey County3131,298631,674R +58.8
Crosby County3981,134601,592R +46.2
Jim Hogg County1,008503591,570D +32.1
Real County2231,282601,565R +67.7
Fisher County2761,220601,556R +60.7
Coke County1501,346581,554R +76.9
Baylor County1531,279561,488R +75.7
Garza County2171,210551,482R +67.0
Shackelford County1201,268561,444R +79.5
Hemphill County1701,212541,436R +72.5
Donley County1401,227531,420R +76.5
Dallam County1471,180521,379R +74.9
Kinney County333913501,296R +44.8
Crockett County305897481,250R +47.4
Crane County1761,014471,237R +67.8
Sutton County215969461,230R +61.3
Hardeman County1661,003451,214R +68.9
Knox County186947451,178R +64.6
Upton County135961441,140R +72.4
Concho County159921421,122R +67.9
Lipscomb County97942411,080R +78.2
Jeff Davis County432581391,052R +14.2
Collingsworth County115874391,028R +73.8
Hall County130856391,025R +70.8
Schleicher County185787381,010R +59.6
Armstrong County7085436960R +81.5
Hudspeth County29960936944R +32.8
Menard County14269733872R +63.7
Dickens County11569232839R +68.7
Oldham County6872131820R +79.6
Reagan County12566431820R +65.8
Sherman County6072331814R +81.4
Throckmorton County6466428756R +79.4
Culberson County34836127736R +1.8
Cochran County12258528735R +63.1
Irion County8459527706R +72.4
Edwards County8554924658R +70.5
Briscoe County5055624630R +80.3
Stonewall County9348223598R +65.2
Motley County3451622572R +84.2
Cottle County7946522566R +68.1
Glasscock County3149721549R +84.8
Sterling County3245618506R +83.7
Foard County9039519504R +60.4
Roberts County1240116429R +90.8
Terrell County9627515386R +46.5
Kent County4132015376R +74.5
Borden County1729213322R +85.4
McMullen County2423711272R +78.7
King County51014110R +87.1
Kenedy County2341266R +27.8
Loving County322126R +73.5

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +3.7R +7.9R +2.1

80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.7 and R +7.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorR +0.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +0.6
Blend of every legD +1.0
With incumbency and primary unityD +1.0
With polls, 65% weightR +2.1

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +3.7 and R +7.9.

Polls of the race

6 polls
R+10R+8R+6R+4R+2EvenD+2SepOctTucker aheadSheets aheadActiVote, 400, R +0.6, 5 days agoUniversity of Houston Hobby School, 2,000, R +6.0, 8 days agoStratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R), 865, R +6.0, 28 days agoTexas Public Opinion Research, 1,007, R +2.0, 30 days agoTexas Southern University, 1,800, R +6.0, 33 days agoTexas Public Opinion Research, 1,000, R +4.0, 59 days agoR +4.0poll trendR +3.9average
PollsterSampleEndedTuckerSheetsMargin
ActiVote400 LV2026-10-1749.750.3R +0.6
University of Houston Hobby School2,000 LV2026-10-144046R +6.0
Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R)865 LV2026-09-244147R +6.0
Texas Public Opinion Research1,007 LV2026-09-224446R +2.0
Texas Southern University1,800 LV2026-09-193945R +6.0
Texas Public Opinion Research1,000 LV2026-08-244044R +4.0