2026 ballot measure forecast
Massachusetts Question 9
Keep or repeal 2024 gun law
A Yes vote keeps the 2024 firearms law (H.4885), which expanded the assault-style firearm ban and other rules; a No vote repeals it. The forecast has Yes at 68.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
68.0%80% range 63 to 73
Needs
50%a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots
Polling average
66.8%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 73.1% Yes
- Polls
- 66.8% Yes
- Forecast
- 68.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Referendum on existing law: the law is repealed only if No wins a majority AND No votes are at least 30 percent of all ballots cast; Yes keeps the law.
The campaign
Vote Yes for a Safe Massachusetts supports keeping the law; The Civil Rights Coalition (gun rights groups) leads repeal.
Also on the Massachusetts ballot
Question 1
Apply public records law to Legislature and governor
>99%
Question 2
Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff
>99%
Question 3
Single all-party primary, top two advance
60%
Question 4
Election Day voter registration
>99%
Question 5
Change state revenue cap and rebate excess
92%
Question 6
Create Nature for All conservation fund
>99%
Question 7
Allow single-family homes on smaller lots
>99%
Question 8
Repeal recreational marijuana sales
<1%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +966,562 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +36.0, a 966,562 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
2,687,742 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,827,152 | 68.0% |
| No | 860,590 | 32.0% |
| Total | 2,687,742 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | 460,747 | 179,780 | 640,527 | 71.9% |
| Worcester County | 202,119 | 116,669 | 318,788 | 63.4% |
| Essex County | 202,807 | 102,860 | 305,667 | 66.3% |
| Norfolk County | 205,984 | 93,527 | 299,511 | 68.8% |
| Suffolk County | 187,264 | 59,260 | 246,524 | 76.0% |
| Plymouth County | 142,586 | 83,536 | 226,122 | 63.1% |
| Bristol County | 125,273 | 80,503 | 205,776 | 60.9% |
| Hampden County | 99,622 | 58,311 | 157,933 | 63.1% |
| Barnstable County | 77,742 | 39,264 | 117,006 | 66.4% |
| Hampshire County | 50,310 | 18,862 | 69,172 | 72.7% |
| Berkshire County | 38,259 | 14,854 | 53,113 | 72.0% |
| Franklin County | 23,356 | 9,306 | 32,662 | 71.5% |
| Dukes County | 7,249 | 2,300 | 9,549 | 75.9% |
| Nantucket County | 3,834 | 1,558 | 5,392 | 71.1% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
5 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe | 500 LV | 2026-10-18 | 57.2 | 31.4 | 9.8 | 61.4% |
| UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-10-12 | 70 | 21 | 7 | 73.8% |
| MassINC Polling Group | 800 LV | 2026-09-22 | 70 | 18 | 11 | 74.4% |
| UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll) | 564 LV | 2026-09-21 | 38 | 27 | 35 | 49.7% |
| UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-08-12 | 70 | 22 | 5 | 73.9% |
How this is built
Question 9 is forecast as a guns measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us, boston.com, nbcboston.com, newsfromthestates.com. All measures.