Bill Hagerty is all but certain to win Tennessee's Senate seat.
Marquita Bradshaw vs Bill Hagerty. The model has Hagerty ahead by 27.5 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
2,315,463 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty R | 1,429,259 | 61.7% |
| Marquita Bradshaw D | 792,196 | 34.2% |
| Other independents O | 84,514 | 3.6% |
| Andrew Woodruff Mixon F | 9,493 | 0.4% |
| Total | 2,315,463 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +20.2 and R +34.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +22.2 | |
| Targoz Market Research | 1,157 RV | 50d | R +20.031 to 51 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 490,534 ballots cast so far in Tennessee, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
4 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bradshaw | Hagerty |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 29.6 | 66.4 |
| Women | 53% | 37.2 | 58.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 34.9 | 60.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 34.1 | 61.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 32.5 | 63.4 |
| 65+ | 33% | 33.7 | 62.3 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 24.0 | 71.9 |
| Black | 15% | 76.8 | 19.5 |
| Latino | 3% | 46.4 | 49.6 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 55.0 | 40.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 37% | 19.5 | 76.5 |
| White women | 42% | 28.0 | 67.8 |
| Black men | 7% | 73.2 | 23.0 |
| Black women | 8% | 80.0 | 16.4 |
| Latino men | 1% | 44.6 | 51.2 |
| Latino women | 2% | 48.0 | 48.0 |
| All other races | 4% | 55.0 | 40.2 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
95 counties| County | Bradshaw | Hagerty | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 786,727 | 1,434,835 | 93,901 | 2,315,463 | R +28.0 |
| Shelby County | 176,241 | 89,573 | 9,072 | 274,886 | D +31.6 |
| Davidson County | 149,076 | 76,866 | 10,399 | 236,341 | D +30.5 |
| Knox County | 58,942 | 105,232 | 5,955 | 170,129 | R +27.3 |
| Hamilton County | 52,079 | 76,909 | 3,579 | 132,567 | R +18.8 |
| Williamson County | 33,626 | 68,625 | 4,261 | 106,512 | R +32.8 |
| Rutherford County | 38,495 | 62,019 | 5,179 | 105,693 | R +22.2 |
| Sumner County | 18,837 | 48,125 | 3,009 | 69,971 | R +41.8 |
| Montgomery County | 21,990 | 33,651 | 2,990 | 58,631 | R +19.9 |
| Wilson County | 15,227 | 40,372 | 2,742 | 58,341 | R +43.2 |
| Sullivan County | 10,919 | 42,496 | 1,995 | 55,410 | R +57.0 |
| Blount County | 11,332 | 37,280 | 2,078 | 50,690 | R +51.1 |
| Washington County | 13,201 | 31,332 | 2,001 | 46,534 | R +39.0 |
| Maury County | 10,807 | 26,218 | 1,624 | 38,649 | R +39.9 |
| Bradley County | 6,061 | 27,573 | 1,257 | 34,891 | R +61.6 |
| Madison County | 12,402 | 18,150 | 1,239 | 31,791 | R +18.0 |
| Sevier County | 5,621 | 24,078 | 1,302 | 31,001 | R +59.5 |
| Anderson County | 7,525 | 18,618 | 1,005 | 27,148 | R +40.8 |
| Putnam County | 6,332 | 18,722 | 1,600 | 26,654 | R +46.4 |
| Cumberland County | 4,490 | 20,387 | 1,064 | 25,941 | R +61.3 |
| Robertson County | 5,553 | 17,781 | 1,202 | 24,536 | R +49.8 |
| Loudon County | 4,522 | 18,659 | 891 | 24,072 | R +58.8 |
| Greene County | 3,639 | 18,347 | 1,036 | 23,022 | R +63.9 |
| Roane County | 4,482 | 14,870 | 848 | 20,200 | R +51.4 |
| Tipton County | 4,471 | 14,675 | 839 | 19,985 | R +51.1 |
| Hawkins County | 2,618 | 15,622 | 720 | 18,960 | R +68.6 |
| Carter County | 3,304 | 14,797 | 793 | 18,894 | R +60.9 |
| Jefferson County | 2,944 | 14,635 | 751 | 18,330 | R +63.8 |
| Coffee County | 3,754 | 13,616 | 934 | 18,304 | R +54.0 |
| Hamblen County | 3,666 | 13,949 | 639 | 18,254 | R +56.4 |
| Dickson County | 3,918 | 13,299 | 944 | 18,161 | R +51.6 |
| Fayette County | 4,401 | 12,684 | 675 | 17,760 | R +46.7 |
| McMinn County | 2,502 | 14,355 | 647 | 17,504 | R +67.7 |
| Gibson County | 3,361 | 12,064 | 950 | 16,375 | R +53.2 |
| Monroe County | 2,199 | 13,157 | 557 | 15,913 | R +68.9 |
| Franklin County | 3,273 | 11,111 | 568 | 14,952 | R +52.5 |
| Cheatham County | 3,540 | 10,689 | 686 | 14,915 | R +47.9 |
| Bedford County | 2,749 | 11,353 | 619 | 14,721 | R +58.4 |
| Lawrence County | 2,071 | 11,350 | 530 | 13,951 | R +66.5 |
| Warren County | 2,401 | 9,256 | 588 | 12,245 | R +56.0 |
| Lincoln County | 1,852 | 9,668 | 593 | 12,113 | R +64.5 |
| Marshall County | 2,217 | 9,046 | 518 | 11,781 | R +58.0 |
| Cocke County | 1,740 | 9,157 | 442 | 11,339 | R +65.4 |
| Dyer County | 1,882 | 8,765 | 561 | 11,208 | R +61.5 |
| Henry County | 2,363 | 8,278 | 490 | 11,131 | R +53.2 |
| Campbell County | 1,583 | 8,787 | 387 | 10,757 | R +67.0 |
| Rhea County | 1,406 | 8,871 | 351 | 10,628 | R +70.2 |
| Weakley County | 1,943 | 8,075 | 561 | 10,579 | R +57.9 |
| Giles County | 2,175 | 7,512 | 457 | 10,144 | R +52.6 |
| Marion County | 2,205 | 7,543 | 353 | 10,101 | R +52.8 |
| Obion County | 1,567 | 7,783 | 524 | 9,874 | R +63.0 |
| Claiborne County | 1,323 | 7,932 | 325 | 9,580 | R +68.9 |
| White County | 1,349 | 7,568 | 459 | 9,376 | R +66.4 |
| Carroll County | 1,594 | 7,215 | 386 | 9,195 | R +61.1 |
| Henderson County | 1,281 | 7,171 | 398 | 8,850 | R +66.6 |
| Hardin County | 1,109 | 7,332 | 324 | 8,765 | R +71.1 |
| McNairy County | 1,227 | 7,120 | 357 | 8,704 | R +67.7 |
| Overton County | 1,339 | 6,285 | 367 | 7,991 | R +61.9 |
| Hickman County | 1,461 | 5,831 | 416 | 7,708 | R +56.6 |
| Grainger County | 1,019 | 6,309 | 266 | 7,594 | R +69.7 |
| Hardeman County | 2,628 | 4,635 | 310 | 7,573 | R +26.5 |
| Fentress County | 815 | 5,891 | 294 | 7,000 | R +72.5 |
| Macon County | 854 | 5,744 | 325 | 6,923 | R +70.6 |
| DeKalb County | 1,172 | 5,364 | 323 | 6,859 | R +61.1 |
| Smith County | 1,138 | 5,347 | 356 | 6,841 | R +61.5 |
| Lauderdale County | 1,951 | 4,476 | 268 | 6,695 | R +37.8 |
| Johnson County | 897 | 5,277 | 297 | 6,471 | R +67.7 |
| Unicoi County | 1,181 | 4,994 | 285 | 6,460 | R +59.0 |
| Morgan County | 843 | 5,365 | 232 | 6,440 | R +70.3 |
| Polk County | 1,023 | 5,091 | 209 | 6,323 | R +64.4 |
| Humphreys County | 1,293 | 4,381 | 356 | 6,030 | R +51.3 |
| Union County | 794 | 4,913 | 226 | 5,933 | R +69.4 |
| Chester County | 940 | 4,600 | 292 | 5,832 | R +62.8 |
| Sequatchie County | 903 | 4,658 | 220 | 5,781 | R +64.8 |
| Scott County | 562 | 4,766 | 199 | 5,527 | R +76.0 |
| Benton County | 898 | 4,237 | 231 | 5,366 | R +62.2 |
| Haywood County | 2,537 | 2,653 | 149 | 5,339 | R +2.1 |
| Wayne County | 581 | 4,249 | 191 | 5,021 | R +73.1 |
| Stewart County | 854 | 3,922 | 230 | 5,006 | R +61.3 |
| Cannon County | 827 | 3,916 | 254 | 4,997 | R +61.7 |
| Bledsoe County | 710 | 3,844 | 175 | 4,729 | R +66.4 |
| Grundy County | 691 | 3,685 | 206 | 4,582 | R +65.4 |
| Meigs County | 653 | 3,593 | 163 | 4,409 | R +66.7 |
| Crockett County | 834 | 3,379 | 158 | 4,371 | R +58.3 |
| Lewis County | 735 | 3,365 | 238 | 4,338 | R +60.6 |
| Decatur County | 645 | 3,354 | 171 | 4,170 | R +64.9 |
| Jackson County | 775 | 3,127 | 244 | 4,146 | R +56.8 |
| Trousdale County | 635 | 2,271 | 150 | 3,056 | R +53.5 |
| Houston County | 634 | 2,187 | 145 | 2,966 | R +52.4 |
| Perry County | 358 | 2,201 | 123 | 2,682 | R +68.8 |
| Moore County | 392 | 2,166 | 107 | 2,665 | R +66.6 |
| Clay County | 438 | 2,009 | 107 | 2,554 | R +61.6 |
| Van Buren County | 388 | 1,889 | 112 | 2,389 | R +62.8 |
| Pickett County | 348 | 1,804 | 78 | 2,230 | R +65.2 |
| Hancock County | 215 | 1,588 | 63 | 1,866 | R +73.4 |
| Lake County | 379 | 1,151 | 111 | 1,641 | R +47.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.