2026 forecast · Iowa Governor
Rob Sand is all but certain to win Iowa's governorship.
Rob Sand vs Zach Lahn, an open seat. The model has Sand ahead by 10.4 points, winning 98 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Likely DModel D +10.4Polls D +5.6Updated October 22, 2026
Rob Sand
Democrat
53.9%
740,493 projected votes
Zach Lahn
Republican
43.5%
597,258 projected votes
98%Sand
2%Lahn
Sand all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Sand wins about 98 of 100
RatingLikely D98% chance for Sand
Model marginD +10.4Polls D +5.6
80 percent rangeD +17.6 to D +3.42,000 simulations
Projected votes1,372,756Sand 53.9%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Sand +242,038 net votes from 22 countiesStatewide D +10.5, a 143,643 vote marginLahn +98,395 net votes from 77 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Rob SandDemocrat · 98% to win
3040506070
53.9%
Zach LahnRepublican · 2% to win
3040506070
43.5%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,372,756 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Rob Sand D | 740,493 | 53.9% |
| Zach Lahn R | 597,258 | 43.5% |
| Nicholas Gluba L | 17,434 | 1.3% |
| Sondra Wilson I | 17,434 | 1.3% |
| Total | 1,372,756 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.6 and D +3.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 · 1,008 LV · A++17%Sand +9.0
Emerson College/Nexstar MediaOct 6 · 650 LV · Gold15%Sand +4.0
On Point PollingOct 21 · 491 LV · Gold15%Sand +4.7
New York Times/SienaOct 1 · 606 LV · Gold11%Sand +11.0
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold7.8%Sand +11.0
Suffolk UniversityOct 4 · 500 LV · B+6.4%Sand +12.0
Every other poll together: 28%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +5.6 | |
| co/efficient (R) | 863 LV | 0d | D +4.049 to 45 |
| On Point Polling | 491 LV | 0d | D +4.752 to 47.3 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 602 LV | 2d | D +11.054 to 43 |
| YouGov | 2,245 LV | 3d | D +6.050 to 44 |
| National Public Affairs | 678 LV | 3d | D +5.050 to 45 |
| Marist College | 512 LV | 4d | D +7.052 to 45 |
| Emerson College/Nexstar Media | 650 LV | 9d | D +4.049 to 45 |
| CNN/SSRS | 801 LV | 10d | D +9.051 to 42 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 11d | D +12.054.8 to 42.8 |
| New York Times/Siena | 606 LV | 14d | D +11.052 to 41 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,008 LV | 17d | D +9.053 to 44 |
| Marist University | 1,050 RV | 25d | D +12.054 to 42 |
| co/efficient (R) | 831 LV | 29d | D +4.046 to 42 |
| Cygnal (R) | 500 LV | 34d | D +4.048 to 44 |
| YouGov | 2,041 LV | 37d | D +10.051 to 41 |
| Emerson College | 750 LV | 44d | D +3.049 to 46 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 53d | D +4.048 to 44 |
| Emerson College | 712 LV | 72d | D +5.048 to 43 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,003 RV | 110d | D +9.053 to 44 |
| New York Times/Siena | 600 LV | 110d | D +1.048 to 47 |
| Cygnal (R) | 600 LV | 118d | D +5.048 to 43 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Model margin
Sand +10.4
Chance of winning
Rob Sand98%
Zach Lahn2%
Simulated vote
Rob Sand53.9%
Zach Lahn43.5%
Nicholas Gluba1.3%
Sondra Wilson1.3%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +13.4
FundamentalsD +17.5
With pollsD +11.5
Early vote turnoutR +1.0
With early voteD +10.4
Read from 124,444 ballots cast so far in Iowa, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
19 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Rob Sand9
- Andy BeshearGovernor of Kentuckysource
- Matt WalshFormer Mayor of Council Bluffs (Republican)source
- Steven C. NoahFormer executive director, Republican Party of Iowasource
- Walt TomengaFormer Iowa state representative (Republican)source
- End Citizens UnitedCampaign finance reform PACsource
- Iowa Federation of Labor, AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- United Auto WorkersUnionsource
- AFSCMEPublic employees unionsource
Zach Lahn10
- Steve KingFormer U.S. Rep., IA-04source
- Randy FeenstraU.S. Rep., IA-04, primary rivalsource
- Jeff KaufmannChair, Iowa Republican Partysource
- Kim ReynoldsGovernor of Iowasource
- Ashley HinsonU.S. Rep., IA-02, U.S. Senate nomineesource
- Donald Trumpsource
- Rob SchneiderActor and comediansource
- Bob Vander PlaatsPresident, The Family Leadersource
On the air
Kay Henderson: Moderated the Iowa PBS governor debate between Zach Lahn and Rob Sand. source
Kyle Kondik: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the open Iowa governor race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Sand | Lahn |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 49.7 | 47.8 |
| Women | 54% | 58.3 | 39.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 61.5 | 35.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 54.8 | 42.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 31% | 51.4 | 46.1 |
| 65+ | 34% | 53.7 | 43.8 |
| RaceWhite | 90% | 51.5 | 45.9 |
| Black | 3% | 91.2 | 6.2 |
| Latino | 4% | 68.7 | 28.8 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 79.7 | 17.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 41% | 46.2 | 51.3 |
| White women | 49% | 56.1 | 41.3 |
| Black men | 1% | 89.9 | 7.5 |
| Black women | 2% | 92.4 | 5.0 |
| Latino men | 2% | 67.0 | 30.4 |
| Latino women | 2% | 70.4 | 27.1 |
| All other races | 4% | 79.7 | 17.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
99 counties| County | Sand | Lahn | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 740,688 | 597,045 | 35,023 | 1,372,756 | D +10.5 |
| Polk County | 145,850 | 62,673 | 6,007 | 214,530 | D +38.7 |
| Linn County | 68,092 | 31,809 | 3,196 | 103,097 | D +35.2 |
| Johnson County | 57,650 | 14,082 | 1,764 | 73,496 | D +59.4 |
| Scott County | 43,129 | 28,554 | 1,763 | 73,446 | D +19.9 |
| Black Hawk County | 32,770 | 19,048 | 1,383 | 53,201 | D +25.8 |
| Dallas County | 28,031 | 20,831 | 1,099 | 49,961 | D +14.4 |
| Dubuque County | 25,233 | 17,121 | 1,130 | 43,484 | D +18.6 |
| Story County | 28,444 | 13,765 | 1,171 | 43,380 | D +33.8 |
| Pottawattamie County | 18,445 | 15,409 | 975 | 34,829 | D +8.6 |
| Woodbury County | 16,540 | 17,407 | 799 | 34,746 | R +2.6 |
| Warren County | 13,894 | 11,652 | 762 | 26,308 | D +8.5 |
| Clinton County | 9,950 | 8,810 | 383 | 19,143 | D +5.9 |
| Cerro Gordo County | 10,758 | 7,616 | 413 | 18,787 | D +16.8 |
| Jasper County | 7,906 | 8,145 | 513 | 16,564 | R +1.4 |
| Marion County | 6,220 | 9,360 | 399 | 15,979 | R +19.6 |
| Sioux County | 2,523 | 13,221 | 191 | 15,935 | R +67.2 |
| Muscatine County | 8,126 | 7,062 | 454 | 15,642 | D +6.8 |
| Des Moines County | 8,407 | 6,709 | 387 | 15,503 | D +10.9 |
| Marshall County | 7,420 | 6,388 | 339 | 14,147 | D +7.4 |
| Webster County | 6,245 | 7,273 | 332 | 13,850 | R +7.5 |
| Lee County | 6,355 | 6,365 | 313 | 13,033 | Even |
| Boone County | 6,315 | 5,795 | 361 | 12,471 | D +4.2 |
| Benton County | 5,252 | 6,623 | 342 | 12,217 | R +11.3 |
| Bremer County | 6,374 | 5,431 | 303 | 12,108 | D +7.8 |
| Wapello County | 5,549 | 6,211 | 339 | 12,099 | R +5.4 |
| Plymouth County | 2,995 | 7,973 | 178 | 11,146 | R +44.7 |
| Winneshiek County | 6,106 | 3,880 | 203 | 10,189 | D +21.9 |
| Washington County | 4,565 | 4,874 | 232 | 9,671 | R +3.2 |
| Mahaska County | 2,838 | 6,137 | 221 | 9,196 | R +35.8 |
| Dickinson County | 3,426 | 5,574 | 156 | 9,156 | R +23.5 |
| Carroll County | 3,157 | 5,772 | 183 | 9,112 | R +28.6 |
| Jones County | 4,622 | 4,122 | 242 | 8,986 | D +5.6 |
| Buchanan County | 3,878 | 4,762 | 239 | 8,879 | R +9.9 |
| Cedar County | 4,484 | 3,951 | 225 | 8,660 | D +6.2 |
| Jackson County | 3,795 | 4,578 | 259 | 8,632 | R +9.1 |
| Poweshiek County | 4,543 | 3,622 | 201 | 8,366 | D +11.1 |
| Delaware County | 3,085 | 4,973 | 190 | 8,248 | R +22.9 |
| Fayette County | 3,716 | 4,260 | 230 | 8,206 | R +6.6 |
| Madison County | 3,405 | 4,570 | 221 | 8,196 | R +14.2 |
| Iowa County | 3,728 | 4,048 | 208 | 7,984 | R +4.0 |
| Henry County | 3,289 | 4,474 | 175 | 7,938 | R +14.9 |
| Clayton County | 3,547 | 4,025 | 250 | 7,822 | R +6.0 |
| Hardin County | 2,969 | 4,051 | 195 | 7,215 | R +15.0 |
| Tama County | 3,250 | 3,724 | 216 | 7,190 | R +6.4 |
| Jefferson County | 4,363 | 2,638 | 179 | 7,180 | D +24.1 |
| Clay County | 2,644 | 4,370 | 150 | 7,164 | R +24.0 |
| Kossuth County | 2,641 | 4,309 | 142 | 7,092 | R +23.5 |
| Butler County | 2,488 | 3,929 | 164 | 6,581 | R +21.8 |
| Mills County | 2,731 | 3,575 | 208 | 6,514 | R +13.0 |
| Harrison County | 2,359 | 3,778 | 203 | 6,340 | R +22.4 |
| Floyd County | 2,998 | 3,152 | 151 | 6,301 | R +2.4 |
| Hamilton County | 2,898 | 3,243 | 145 | 6,286 | R +5.4 |
| Allamakee County | 2,568 | 3,451 | 148 | 6,167 | R +14.3 |
| Buena Vista County | 2,372 | 3,644 | 141 | 6,157 | R +20.5 |
| O'Brien County | 1,474 | 4,542 | 85 | 6,101 | R +50.2 |
| Page County | 2,241 | 3,562 | 137 | 5,940 | R +22.4 |
| Grundy County | 2,118 | 3,606 | 135 | 5,859 | R +25.4 |
| Cass County | 2,450 | 3,236 | 127 | 5,813 | R +13.4 |
| Lyon County | 1,063 | 4,443 | 72 | 5,578 | R +60.7 |
| Guthrie County | 2,147 | 3,100 | 168 | 5,415 | R +17.5 |
| Crawford County | 1,735 | 3,477 | 122 | 5,334 | R +32.5 |
| Appanoose County | 1,919 | 3,215 | 153 | 5,287 | R +24.5 |
| Shelby County | 1,800 | 3,338 | 111 | 5,249 | R +29.3 |
| Chickasaw County | 2,050 | 3,064 | 99 | 5,213 | R +19.4 |
| Cherokee County | 1,641 | 3,365 | 107 | 5,113 | R +33.8 |
| Union County | 2,214 | 2,662 | 151 | 5,027 | R +8.9 |
| Hancock County | 1,694 | 3,018 | 106 | 4,818 | R +27.4 |
| Wright County | 1,869 | 2,806 | 124 | 4,799 | R +19.5 |
| Winnebago County | 2,017 | 2,580 | 113 | 4,710 | R +11.9 |
| Mitchell County | 1,879 | 2,697 | 103 | 4,679 | R +17.6 |
| Sac County | 1,349 | 3,015 | 93 | 4,457 | R +37.4 |
| Calhoun County | 1,545 | 2,590 | 150 | 4,285 | R +24.4 |
| Keokuk County | 1,438 | 2,736 | 72 | 4,246 | R +30.6 |
| Humboldt County | 1,396 | 2,713 | 84 | 4,193 | R +31.4 |
| Montgomery County | 1,499 | 2,444 | 122 | 4,065 | R +23.2 |
| Louisa County | 1,622 | 2,328 | 93 | 4,043 | R +17.6 |
| Franklin County | 1,575 | 2,338 | 84 | 3,997 | R +19.1 |
| Palo Alto County | 1,320 | 2,594 | 80 | 3,994 | R +31.9 |
| Greene County | 1,738 | 2,128 | 103 | 3,969 | R +9.8 |
| Emmet County | 1,377 | 2,387 | 93 | 3,857 | R +26.2 |
| Howard County | 1,604 | 2,090 | 106 | 3,800 | R +12.7 |
| Lucas County | 1,436 | 2,246 | 94 | 3,776 | R +21.5 |
| Monona County | 1,280 | 2,375 | 71 | 3,726 | R +29.4 |
| Clarke County | 1,497 | 2,127 | 93 | 3,717 | R +17.0 |
| Worth County | 1,642 | 1,745 | 101 | 3,488 | R +3.0 |
| Adair County | 1,337 | 1,980 | 89 | 3,406 | R +19.0 |
| Davis County | 1,057 | 2,197 | 80 | 3,334 | R +34.3 |
| Monroe County | 1,102 | 2,146 | 77 | 3,325 | R +31.4 |
| Decatur County | 1,132 | 1,931 | 85 | 3,148 | R +25.5 |
| Pocahontas County | 921 | 2,038 | 79 | 3,038 | R +36.9 |
| Van Buren County | 1,052 | 1,919 | 64 | 3,035 | R +28.6 |
| Ida County | 1,059 | 1,910 | 48 | 3,017 | R +28.1 |
| Fremont County | 1,037 | 1,860 | 71 | 2,968 | R +27.7 |
| Audubon County | 1,136 | 1,483 | 45 | 2,664 | R +13.1 |
| Wayne County | 640 | 1,917 | 57 | 2,614 | R +48.9 |
| Osceola County | 503 | 2,047 | 44 | 2,594 | R +59.5 |
| Taylor County | 691 | 1,770 | 56 | 2,517 | R +42.8 |
| Ringgold County | 768 | 1,416 | 53 | 2,237 | R +29.2 |
| Adams County | 686 | 1,045 | 50 | 1,781 | R +20.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.