2026 forecast · Georgia Secretary Of State
Penny Brown Reynolds is favored to win Georgia's secretary of state race.
Penny Brown Reynolds vs Tim Fleming, an open seat. The model has Reynolds ahead by 5.3 points, with a 82 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +5.3Updated October 22, 2026
Penny Brown Reynolds
Democrat
51.8%
2,420,700 projected votes
Tim Fleming
Republican
46.5%
2,171,434 projected votes
82%Reynolds
18%Fleming
Reynolds favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Reynolds wins about 82 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Reynolds +1,084,864 net votes from 33 countiesStatewide D +5.3, a 249,266 vote marginFleming +835,598 net votes from 126 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,670,238 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Penny Brown Reynolds D | 2,420,700 | 51.8% |
| Tim Fleming R | 2,171,434 | 46.5% |
| Other candidates | 78,103 | 1.7% |
| Total | 4,670,238 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
159 counties| County | Reynolds | Fleming | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,420,698 | 2,171,432 | 78,112 | 4,670,242 | D +5.3 |
| Fulton County | 380,038 | 104,052 | 8,234 | 492,324 | D +56.1 |
| Gwinnett County | 229,301 | 126,816 | 6,057 | 362,174 | D +28.3 |
| Cobb County | 217,598 | 131,504 | 5,938 | 355,040 | D +24.3 |
| DeKalb County | 294,790 | 42,956 | 5,744 | 343,490 | D +73.3 |
| Cherokee County | 41,501 | 92,894 | 2,285 | 136,680 | R +37.6 |
| Chatham County | 80,643 | 46,039 | 2,154 | 128,836 | D +26.9 |
| Forsyth County | 38,150 | 76,596 | 1,952 | 116,698 | R +33.0 |
| Henry County | 76,411 | 34,592 | 1,888 | 112,891 | D +37.0 |
| Clayton County | 97,230 | 10,375 | 1,830 | 109,435 | D +79.4 |
| Hall County | 22,510 | 62,244 | 1,442 | 86,196 | R +46.1 |
| Richmond County | 58,854 | 20,687 | 1,353 | 80,894 | D +47.2 |
| Paulding County | 30,940 | 46,863 | 1,324 | 79,127 | R +20.1 |
| Muscogee County | 51,099 | 24,298 | 1,283 | 76,680 | D +35.0 |
| Columbia County | 27,873 | 45,418 | 1,246 | 74,537 | R +23.5 |
| Coweta County | 24,864 | 47,017 | 1,222 | 73,103 | R +30.3 |
| Houston County | 32,408 | 37,650 | 1,192 | 71,250 | R +7.4 |
| Fayette County | 32,496 | 31,381 | 1,087 | 64,964 | D +1.7 |
| Bibb County | 42,443 | 21,255 | 1,082 | 64,780 | D +32.7 |
| Douglas County | 43,599 | 18,392 | 1,055 | 63,046 | D +40.0 |
| Carroll County | 15,193 | 35,880 | 869 | 51,942 | R +39.8 |
| Clarke County | 37,188 | 13,688 | 865 | 51,741 | D +45.4 |
| Newton County | 31,205 | 19,215 | 858 | 51,278 | D +23.4 |
| Walton County | 12,973 | 35,268 | 820 | 49,061 | R +45.4 |
| Bartow County | 12,098 | 35,261 | 805 | 48,164 | R +48.1 |
| Lowndes County | 19,291 | 23,957 | 736 | 43,984 | R +10.6 |
| Rockdale County | 31,691 | 9,187 | 696 | 41,574 | D +54.1 |
| Floyd County | 11,554 | 27,099 | 657 | 39,310 | R +39.5 |
| Glynn County | 14,933 | 23,292 | 650 | 38,875 | R +21.5 |
| Jackson County | 7,693 | 29,931 | 640 | 38,264 | R +58.1 |
| Barrow County | 10,342 | 25,136 | 604 | 36,082 | R +41.0 |
| Whitfield County | 9,141 | 24,231 | 568 | 33,940 | R +44.5 |
| Dougherty County | 24,690 | 7,788 | 553 | 33,031 | D +51.2 |
| Bulloch County | 11,410 | 18,752 | 512 | 30,674 | R +23.9 |
| Effingham County | 7,680 | 21,896 | 504 | 30,080 | R +47.3 |
| Catoosa County | 6,860 | 22,302 | 496 | 29,658 | R +52.1 |
| Spalding County | 12,528 | 16,167 | 488 | 29,183 | R +12.5 |
| Troup County | 10,945 | 16,582 | 468 | 27,995 | R +20.1 |
| Walker County | 5,705 | 21,428 | 461 | 27,594 | R +57.0 |
| Oconee County | 7,034 | 15,874 | 390 | 23,298 | R +37.9 |
| Gordon County | 4,008 | 18,757 | 387 | 23,152 | R +63.7 |
| Camden County | 7,390 | 14,790 | 378 | 22,558 | R +32.8 |
| Liberty County | 13,989 | 7,138 | 359 | 21,486 | D +31.9 |
| Laurens County | 7,395 | 13,472 | 355 | 21,222 | R +28.6 |
| Bryan County | 6,412 | 13,684 | 342 | 20,438 | R +35.6 |
| Habersham County | 2,932 | 16,830 | 336 | 20,098 | R +69.2 |
| Thomas County | 7,897 | 11,651 | 332 | 19,880 | R +18.9 |
| Harris County | 5,299 | 13,621 | 322 | 19,242 | R +43.3 |
| Baldwin County | 9,426 | 8,357 | 302 | 18,085 | D +5.9 |
| Pickens County | 2,739 | 14,568 | 294 | 17,601 | R +67.2 |
| Polk County | 3,332 | 12,890 | 276 | 16,498 | R +57.9 |
| Gilmer County | 2,680 | 13,103 | 269 | 16,052 | R +64.9 |
| Dawson County | 2,243 | 13,367 | 265 | 15,875 | R +70.1 |
| Lumpkin County | 2,942 | 12,439 | 262 | 15,643 | R +60.7 |
| Union County | 2,500 | 12,813 | 261 | 15,574 | R +66.2 |
| Tift County | 5,049 | 10,237 | 260 | 15,546 | R +33.4 |
| Lee County | 4,436 | 10,797 | 259 | 15,492 | R +41.1 |
| Monroe County | 4,063 | 11,108 | 258 | 15,429 | R +45.7 |
| Colquitt County | 3,912 | 11,104 | 256 | 15,272 | R +47.1 |
| Murray County | 2,092 | 12,338 | 246 | 14,676 | R +69.8 |
| Coffee County | 4,187 | 10,146 | 245 | 14,578 | R +40.9 |
| White County | 2,201 | 12,081 | 243 | 14,525 | R +68.0 |
| Madison County | 2,996 | 11,170 | 242 | 14,408 | R +56.7 |
| Fannin County | 2,268 | 11,573 | 236 | 14,077 | R +66.1 |
| Jones County | 4,655 | 9,020 | 233 | 13,908 | R +31.4 |
| Haralson County | 1,523 | 12,031 | 230 | 13,784 | R +76.2 |
| Ware County | 3,854 | 8,978 | 218 | 13,050 | R +39.3 |
| Hart County | 2,341 | 9,842 | 207 | 12,390 | R +60.5 |
| Peach County | 5,917 | 5,949 | 202 | 12,068 | R +0.3 |
| Wayne County | 2,316 | 9,485 | 201 | 12,002 | R +59.7 |
| Upson County | 3,774 | 8,004 | 200 | 11,978 | R +35.3 |
| Sumter County | 6,281 | 5,041 | 193 | 11,515 | D +10.8 |
| Butts County | 3,325 | 7,971 | 192 | 11,488 | R +40.4 |
| Putnam County | 3,268 | 8,027 | 192 | 11,487 | R +41.4 |
| Greene County | 3,900 | 7,366 | 192 | 11,458 | R +30.3 |
| Stephens County | 2,020 | 9,143 | 190 | 11,353 | R +62.7 |
| Morgan County | 2,966 | 8,128 | 188 | 11,282 | R +45.8 |
| Decatur County | 4,446 | 6,051 | 179 | 10,676 | R +15.0 |
| Franklin County | 1,165 | 9,098 | 175 | 10,438 | R +76.0 |
| Pike County | 1,285 | 8,860 | 173 | 10,318 | R +73.4 |
| Meriwether County | 3,973 | 6,076 | 171 | 10,220 | R +20.6 |
| Burke County | 4,987 | 4,883 | 168 | 10,038 | D +1.0 |
| Toombs County | 2,589 | 7,215 | 168 | 9,972 | R +46.4 |
| Grady County | 3,177 | 6,447 | 163 | 9,787 | R +33.4 |
| McDuffie County | 3,638 | 5,665 | 159 | 9,462 | R +21.4 |
| Chattooga County | 1,754 | 7,498 | 156 | 9,408 | R +61.0 |
| Rabun County | 1,890 | 7,118 | 153 | 9,161 | R +57.1 |
| Lamar County | 2,442 | 6,445 | 152 | 9,039 | R +44.3 |
| Washington County | 4,738 | 3,984 | 148 | 8,870 | D +8.5 |
| Emanuel County | 2,708 | 6,008 | 148 | 8,864 | R +37.2 |
| Banks County | 699 | 7,886 | 146 | 8,731 | R +82.3 |
| Elbert County | 2,441 | 5,944 | 143 | 8,528 | R +41.1 |
| Pierce County | 828 | 7,538 | 143 | 8,509 | R +78.9 |
| Worth County | 2,201 | 6,142 | 142 | 8,485 | R +46.4 |
| Mitchell County | 3,801 | 4,359 | 138 | 8,298 | R +6.7 |
| Tattnall County | 2,059 | 6,044 | 137 | 8,240 | R +48.4 |
| Dodge County | 2,017 | 5,763 | 132 | 7,912 | R +47.4 |
| Towns County | 1,408 | 6,258 | 130 | 7,796 | R +62.2 |
| Oglethorpe County | 2,245 | 5,272 | 128 | 7,645 | R +39.6 |
| Jasper County | 1,653 | 5,860 | 127 | 7,640 | R +55.1 |
| Crisp County | 2,875 | 4,593 | 127 | 7,595 | R +22.6 |
| Appling County | 1,398 | 6,044 | 128 | 7,570 | R +61.4 |
| Brantley County | 601 | 6,631 | 124 | 7,356 | R +82.0 |
| Berrien County | 1,065 | 6,052 | 121 | 7,238 | R +68.9 |
| Dade County | 1,274 | 5,621 | 117 | 7,012 | R +62.0 |
| Jefferson County | 3,747 | 3,060 | 116 | 6,923 | D +9.9 |
| Brooks County | 2,623 | 3,905 | 112 | 6,640 | R +19.3 |
| Cook County | 1,896 | 4,619 | 111 | 6,626 | R +41.1 |
| McIntosh County | 2,376 | 3,824 | 106 | 6,306 | R +23.0 |
| Screven County | 2,444 | 3,643 | 103 | 6,190 | R +19.4 |
| Ben Hill County | 2,182 | 3,869 | 103 | 6,154 | R +27.4 |
| Long County | 2,289 | 3,554 | 100 | 5,943 | R +21.3 |
| Crawford County | 1,524 | 3,958 | 93 | 5,575 | R +43.6 |
| Bleckley County | 1,206 | 4,234 | 92 | 5,532 | R +54.7 |
| Jeff Davis County | 820 | 4,420 | 90 | 5,330 | R +67.5 |
| Heard County | 782 | 4,381 | 89 | 5,252 | R +68.5 |
| Macon County | 2,987 | 1,556 | 78 | 4,621 | D +31.0 |
| Wilkes County | 1,946 | 2,576 | 77 | 4,599 | R +13.7 |
| Early County | 2,138 | 2,269 | 75 | 4,482 | R +2.9 |
| Wilkinson County | 1,962 | 2,354 | 74 | 4,390 | R +8.9 |
| Charlton County | 957 | 3,336 | 73 | 4,366 | R +54.5 |
| Bacon County | 546 | 3,712 | 72 | 4,330 | R +73.1 |
| Lincoln County | 1,235 | 3,010 | 72 | 4,317 | R +41.1 |
| Candler County | 1,146 | 2,938 | 70 | 4,154 | R +43.1 |
| Telfair County | 1,446 | 2,626 | 70 | 4,142 | R +28.5 |
| Dooly County | 2,017 | 2,006 | 68 | 4,091 | D +0.3 |
| Hancock County | 2,980 | 1,014 | 68 | 4,062 | D +48.4 |
| Terrell County | 2,283 | 1,691 | 68 | 4,042 | D +14.7 |
| Pulaski County | 1,226 | 2,723 | 67 | 4,016 | R +37.3 |
| Twiggs County | 1,881 | 1,986 | 65 | 3,932 | R +2.7 |
| Irwin County | 959 | 2,904 | 65 | 3,928 | R +49.5 |
| Evans County | 1,153 | 2,702 | 65 | 3,920 | R +39.5 |
| Johnson County | 1,079 | 2,663 | 64 | 3,806 | R +41.6 |
| Montgomery County | 906 | 2,708 | 62 | 3,676 | R +49.0 |
| Seminole County | 1,123 | 2,470 | 61 | 3,654 | R +36.9 |
| Taylor County | 1,315 | 2,241 | 60 | 3,616 | R +25.6 |
| Turner County | 1,306 | 2,182 | 60 | 3,548 | R +24.7 |
| Lanier County | 1,003 | 2,334 | 57 | 3,394 | R +39.2 |
| Jenkins County | 1,207 | 2,016 | 55 | 3,278 | R +24.7 |
| Marion County | 1,231 | 1,957 | 54 | 3,242 | R +22.4 |
| Wilcox County | 856 | 2,326 | 54 | 3,236 | R +45.4 |
| Talbot County | 1,886 | 1,163 | 52 | 3,101 | D +23.3 |
| Treutlen County | 878 | 1,862 | 47 | 2,787 | R +35.3 |
| Randolph County | 1,600 | 1,138 | 46 | 2,784 | D +16.6 |
| Atkinson County | 671 | 1,957 | 44 | 2,672 | R +48.1 |
| Clinch County | 636 | 1,840 | 42 | 2,518 | R +47.8 |
| Miller County | 620 | 1,788 | 40 | 2,448 | R +47.7 |
| Warren County | 1,334 | 1,016 | 40 | 2,390 | D +13.3 |
| Wheeler County | 709 | 1,630 | 40 | 2,379 | R +38.7 |
| Schley County | 409 | 1,660 | 35 | 2,104 | R +59.5 |
| Calhoun County | 1,265 | 774 | 35 | 2,074 | D +23.7 |
| Stewart County | 1,300 | 629 | 33 | 1,962 | D +34.2 |
| Glascock County | 118 | 1,303 | 25 | 1,446 | R +82.0 |
| Chattahoochee County | 703 | 711 | 24 | 1,438 | R +0.5 |
| Baker County | 603 | 724 | 22 | 1,349 | R +9.0 |
| Clay County | 756 | 531 | 21 | 1,308 | D +17.2 |
| Echols County | 128 | 1,093 | 20 | 1,241 | R +77.8 |
| Webster County | 531 | 664 | 19 | 1,214 | R +10.9 |
| Quitman County | 477 | 553 | 18 | 1,048 | R +7.3 |
| Taliaferro County | 510 | 292 | 13 | 815 | D +26.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +12.7 and R +2.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +4.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +4.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +5.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +5.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +12.7 and R +2.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Reynolds | Fleming | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||