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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

Kentucky Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Kentucky Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 19 of the 38 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 19 carry over until 2028; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 38On the ballot 19Kentucky HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
6 to 8
Median 6 · 20 for a majority
Favored to flip
0to D1to R
After 2024: 7 D, 31 R
Environment
D +11.2
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Kentucky Senate map

District 1, not up in 2026District 2: Democrats <1%District 3, not up in 2026District 4: Democrats <1%District 5, not up in 2026District 6: Democrats 15%District 7, not up in 2026District 8: Democrats <1%District 9, not up in 2026District 10: Democrats <1%District 11, not up in 2026District 12: Democrats <1%District 13, not up in 2026District 14: Democrats <1%District 15, not up in 2026District 16: Democrats <1%District 17, not up in 2026District 18: Democrats <1%District 19, not up in 2026District 20: Democrats 3%District 21, not up in 2026District 22: Democrats <1%District 23, not up in 2026District 24: Democrats <1%District 25, not up in 2026District 26: Democrats >99%District 27, not up in 2026District 28: Democrats <1%District 29, not up in 2026District 30: Democrats <1%District 31, not up in 2026District 32: Democrats <1%District 33, not up in 2026District 34: Democrats 2%District 35, not up in 2026District 36: Democrats 37%District 37, not up in 2026District 38: Democrats <1%1234567891012141516171820212224252728293031323438
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 7 D to 31 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 26: Democrats win >99%District 36: Democrats win 37%District 6: Democrats win 15%District 20: Democrats win 3%District 34: Democrats win 2%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%District 38: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
20 for a majority412

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
36Julie Raque Adams 2022Sarah Cole McIntosh vs Julie Raque AdamsR +12.9R +1.737%28,20229,15458,230Toss up
6Lindsey Tichenor 2022Christian Furman vs Lindsey TichenorR +18.0R +6.915%23,68727,18251,643Likely R

Projected Kentucky Senate vote

19 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats184,00621.5%
Republicans664,32677.7%
Independents and others6,3410.7%
Total854,674100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.