2026 forecast · Ohio Senate
Sherrod Brown is favored to win Ohio's Senate seat.
Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted. The model has Brown ahead by 3.8 points, winning 79 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Lean DModel D +3.8Polls D +3.1Updated October 22, 2026
Sherrod Brown
Democrat
50.1%
2,389,266 projected votes
Jon Husted
Republican
46.4%
2,209,004 projected votes
79%Brown
21%Husted
Brown favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Brown wins about 79 of 100
RatingLean D79% chance for Brown
Model marginD +3.8Polls D +3.1
80 percent rangeD +9.6 to R +2.12,000 simulations
Projected votes4,764,552Brown 50.1%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Brown +730,860 net votes from 15 countiesStatewide D +3.7, a 178,139 vote marginHusted +552,721 net votes from 73 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Sherrod BrownDemocrat · 79% to win
3040506070
50.1%
Jon HustedRepublican · 21% to win
3040506070
46.4%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
4,764,552 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Sherrod Brown D | 2,389,266 | 50.1% |
| Jon Husted R | 2,209,004 | 46.4% |
| Bill Redpath L | 90,526 | 1.9% |
| Greg Levy I | 75,756 | 1.6% |
| Total | 4,764,552 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.6 and R +2.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 1 · 616 LV · Gold17%Brown +3.0
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold17%Brown +3.0
On Point PollingOct 17 · 635 LV · Gold14%Brown +4.3
Quantus InsightsSep 23 · 695 LV · Gold13%Brown +0.5
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 · 1,592 LV · A++12%Brown +5.0
InsiderAdvantageSep 29 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, 4.5 off6.6%Brown +5.5
Every other poll together: 22%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +3.1 | |
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 0d | R +0.4 |
| On Point Polling | 635 LV | 0d | D +4.3 |
| Marist University | 883 LV | 0d | D +1.9 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,592 LV | 0d | D +4.7 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 901 LV | 1d | R +0.6 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 959 LV | 2d | D +6.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | 925 LV | 9d | D +2.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | 760 LV | 10d | D +4.9 |
| New York Times/Siena | 616 LV | 14d | D +2.3 |
| YouGov | 3,780 LV | 15d | D +3.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 16d | D +1.1 |
| Big Data Poll | 682 LV | 18d | D +3.9 |
| NPR/Marist | 1,298 RV | 18d | D +5.6 |
| Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network | 500 LV | 18d | D +1.3 |
| Quantus Insights | 695 LV | 22d | D +2.3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1,115 LV | 22d | D +2.5 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,085 LV | 29d | D +4.2 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 1,000 LV | 35d | D +2.2 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | 36d | D +6.9 |
| Abacus Data | 306 LV | 48d | D +4.5 |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,008 RV | 66d | D +5.9 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | 600 LV | 72d | D +2.8 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 601 LV | 109d | R +3.7 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | 800 LV | 121d | D +4.3 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | 600 LV | 133d | D +2.8 |
Model margin
Brown +3.8
Chance of winning
Sherrod Brown79%
Jon Husted21%
Simulated vote
Sherrod Brown50.1%
Jon Husted46.4%
Bill Redpath1.9%
Greg Levy1.6%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +11.3
FundamentalsD +1.9
With pollsD +3.7
Early vote turnoutD +0.1
With early voteD +3.8
Read from 719,262 ballots cast so far in Ohio, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
59 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Sherrod Brown30
- Barack ObamaFormer Presidentsource
- United AssociationPlumbers and pipefitters unionsource
- UFCW Locals 75, 880 and 1059Labor union localssource
- International Union of Painters and Allied TradesLabor unionsource
- Ohio Federation of TeachersTeachers unionsource
- United Auto WorkersLabor unionsource
- Ohio AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
- Ohio Democratic PartyState partysource
Jon Husted29
- Bernie MorenoU.S. Senator, OHsource
- Tim ScottU.S. Senator, SC; NRSC chairsource
- Jim JordanU.S. Rep., OH-04source
- Frank LaRoseOhio Secretary of Statesource
- Vivek RamaswamyGOP nominee for Ohio governorsource
- Dave YostOhio Attorney Generalsource
- Robert SpragueOhio Treasurersource
- Bob LattaU.S. Rep., OH-05source
On the air
Harry Enten: Named Ohio among six toss up Senate races and warned Democrats of a big siren because polls are within the margin of error. source
Harry Enten: In a YouTube forecast video listed Ohio as a Democratic lead of 3 points. source
Karl Rove: Said he is worried for Republicans in Ohio. source
Karl Rove: On the Journal Editorial Report called Sherrod Brown a terrific candidate and predicted a horserace with Jon Husted. source
Nate Silver: His Silver Bulletin forecast gave Sherrod Brown a 73.9% chance to unseat Jon Husted. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Brown | Husted |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 46.0 | 50.5 |
| Women | 54% | 53.6 | 42.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 54.8 | 41.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 50.4 | 46.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 47.7 | 48.8 |
| 65+ | 33% | 50.4 | 46.1 |
| RaceWhite | 82% | 43.1 | 53.4 |
| Black | 11% | 88.1 | 8.7 |
| Latino | 3% | 66.1 | 30.5 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 73.9 | 22.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 38% | 37.8 | 58.7 |
| White women | 44% | 47.6 | 48.9 |
| Black men | 5% | 87.1 | 9.7 |
| Black women | 6% | 88.9 | 7.9 |
| Latino men | 1% | 63.4 | 33.1 |
| Latino women | 1% | 68.7 | 27.8 |
| All other races | 5% | 73.9 | 22.0 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
88 counties| County | Brown | Husted | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,388,092 | 2,209,953 | 166,507 | 4,764,552 | D +3.7 |
| Franklin County | 354,429 | 133,122 | 16,638 | 504,189 | D +44.0 |
| Cuyahoga County | 362,764 | 117,041 | 16,374 | 496,179 | D +49.6 |
| Hamilton County | 213,857 | 122,587 | 8,981 | 345,425 | D +26.5 |
| Summit County | 139,802 | 79,037 | 8,881 | 227,720 | D +26.7 |
| Montgomery County | 114,793 | 91,554 | 6,601 | 212,948 | D +11.0 |
| Lucas County | 99,931 | 53,467 | 5,071 | 158,469 | D +29.4 |
| Stark County | 67,580 | 78,213 | 6,074 | 151,867 | R +7.1 |
| Butler County | 61,159 | 83,516 | 4,321 | 148,996 | R +15.0 |
| Lorain County | 69,152 | 55,111 | 5,177 | 129,440 | D +10.9 |
| Warren County | 43,549 | 65,390 | 3,253 | 112,192 | R +19.5 |
| Delaware County | 53,770 | 51,937 | 2,710 | 108,417 | D +1.8 |
| Lake County | 50,703 | 50,312 | 3,881 | 104,896 | D +0.4 |
| Mahoning County | 52,836 | 39,280 | 3,341 | 95,457 | D +14.2 |
| Clermont County | 31,643 | 56,380 | 2,816 | 90,839 | R +27.2 |
| Medina County | 38,420 | 44,654 | 3,192 | 86,266 | R +7.3 |
| Trumbull County | 40,327 | 37,604 | 3,247 | 81,178 | D +3.4 |
| Licking County | 30,048 | 42,784 | 3,034 | 75,866 | R +16.8 |
| Greene County | 31,312 | 40,800 | 2,307 | 74,419 | R +12.7 |
| Portage County | 32,905 | 32,249 | 3,646 | 68,800 | D +1.1 |
| Fairfield County | 28,764 | 36,711 | 2,375 | 67,850 | R +11.8 |
| Wood County | 26,672 | 26,386 | 2,039 | 55,097 | D +0.6 |
| Clark County | 22,220 | 27,180 | 1,791 | 51,191 | R +9.7 |
| Richland County | 15,669 | 30,664 | 2,031 | 48,364 | R +30.9 |
| Miami County | 13,969 | 31,818 | 1,514 | 47,301 | R +37.7 |
| Geauga County | 19,688 | 24,780 | 1,518 | 45,986 | R +11.1 |
| Wayne County | 15,474 | 26,570 | 1,752 | 43,796 | R +25.3 |
| Columbiana County | 13,060 | 24,921 | 1,748 | 39,729 | R +29.8 |
| Allen County | 11,286 | 25,408 | 1,174 | 37,868 | R +37.3 |
| Ashtabula County | 15,286 | 18,433 | 1,888 | 35,607 | R +8.8 |
| Tuscarawas County | 12,258 | 21,113 | 1,463 | 34,834 | R +25.4 |
| Erie County | 16,605 | 14,591 | 1,300 | 32,496 | D +6.2 |
| Muskingum County | 10,658 | 19,974 | 1,111 | 31,743 | R +29.3 |
| Hancock County | 10,234 | 19,489 | 1,078 | 30,801 | R +30.0 |
| Union County | 10,504 | 17,534 | 1,047 | 29,085 | R +24.2 |
| Ross County | 10,044 | 15,861 | 995 | 26,900 | R +21.6 |
| Knox County | 7,569 | 17,391 | 1,122 | 26,082 | R +37.7 |
| Jefferson County | 9,584 | 15,181 | 1,113 | 25,878 | R +21.5 |
| Belmont County | 9,321 | 15,501 | 981 | 25,803 | R +23.9 |
| Scioto County | 8,627 | 16,180 | 584 | 25,391 | R +29.8 |
| Washington County | 8,582 | 15,926 | 863 | 25,371 | R +28.9 |
| Sandusky County | 9,325 | 13,554 | 1,179 | 24,058 | R +17.5 |
| Pickaway County | 7,356 | 15,018 | 884 | 23,258 | R +32.9 |
| Athens County | 14,130 | 7,538 | 1,044 | 22,712 | D +29.1 |
| Marion County | 7,493 | 13,997 | 1,155 | 22,645 | R +28.7 |
| Darke County | 3,967 | 17,123 | 720 | 21,810 | R +60.3 |
| Huron County | 6,740 | 13,737 | 1,033 | 21,510 | R +32.5 |
| Ashland County | 5,505 | 14,772 | 933 | 21,210 | R +43.6 |
| Lawrence County | 6,551 | 13,708 | 670 | 20,929 | R +34.1 |
| Seneca County | 7,223 | 12,643 | 893 | 20,759 | R +26.1 |
| Auglaize County | 4,130 | 15,882 | 640 | 20,652 | R +56.9 |
| Shelby County | 3,809 | 15,894 | 631 | 20,334 | R +59.4 |
| Ottawa County | 8,861 | 10,264 | 673 | 19,798 | R +7.0 |
| Mercer County | 3,587 | 15,105 | 539 | 19,231 | R +59.9 |
| Logan County | 4,106 | 13,802 | 785 | 18,693 | R +51.8 |
| Fulton County | 5,904 | 11,418 | 665 | 17,987 | R +30.5 |
| Preble County | 4,044 | 12,754 | 682 | 17,480 | R +49.8 |
| Brown County | 4,342 | 11,972 | 522 | 16,836 | R +45.3 |
| Madison County | 5,505 | 10,563 | 687 | 16,755 | R +30.2 |
| Crawford County | 4,116 | 11,698 | 728 | 16,542 | R +45.8 |
| Clinton County | 4,336 | 11,558 | 508 | 16,402 | R +43.9 |
| Putnam County | 2,905 | 12,913 | 456 | 16,274 | R +61.5 |
| Champaign County | 4,884 | 10,654 | 732 | 16,270 | R +35.4 |
| Highland County | 3,519 | 11,703 | 536 | 15,758 | R +51.9 |
| Defiance County | 4,823 | 9,871 | 612 | 15,306 | R +32.9 |
| Morrow County | 3,935 | 10,375 | 706 | 15,016 | R +42.8 |
| Williams County | 4,042 | 9,942 | 629 | 14,613 | R +40.4 |
| Guernsey County | 4,190 | 9,388 | 537 | 14,115 | R +36.6 |
| Perry County | 4,184 | 8,804 | 612 | 13,600 | R +33.9 |
| Coshocton County | 3,689 | 9,018 | 585 | 13,292 | R +40.0 |
| Henry County | 3,142 | 8,120 | 408 | 11,670 | R +42.5 |
| Van Wert County | 2,556 | 8,588 | 526 | 11,670 | R +51.5 |
| Carroll County | 3,239 | 7,427 | 573 | 11,239 | R +37.1 |
| Jackson County | 3,102 | 7,671 | 379 | 11,152 | R +40.9 |
| Holmes County | 1,674 | 8,760 | 412 | 10,846 | R +65.3 |
| Hocking County | 3,951 | 6,387 | 465 | 10,803 | R +22.5 |
| Hardin County | 2,943 | 7,271 | 459 | 10,673 | R +40.6 |
| Gallia County | 2,791 | 7,524 | 342 | 10,657 | R +44.4 |
| Adams County | 2,312 | 7,513 | 283 | 10,108 | R +51.3 |
| Fayette County | 2,461 | 7,264 | 342 | 10,067 | R +47.8 |
| Pike County | 3,103 | 6,135 | 296 | 9,534 | R +31.7 |
| Wyandot County | 2,542 | 6,207 | 336 | 9,085 | R +40.3 |
| Meigs County | 2,395 | 5,833 | 280 | 8,508 | R +40.3 |
| Paulding County | 1,822 | 5,234 | 333 | 7,389 | R +46.0 |
| Harrison County | 1,773 | 3,754 | 236 | 5,763 | R +34.3 |
| Morgan County | 1,584 | 3,701 | 197 | 5,482 | R +38.5 |
| Monroe County | 1,743 | 3,487 | 224 | 5,454 | R +31.8 |
| Noble County | 1,369 | 3,652 | 204 | 5,225 | R +43.4 |
| Vinton County | 1,335 | 3,107 | 204 | 4,646 | R +37.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.