2026 forecast · Nebraska Secretary Of State
Scott Petersen is favored to win Nebraska's secretary of state race.
Sarah Slattery vs Scott Petersen, an open seat. The model has Petersen ahead by 5.1 points, with a 80 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +5.1Updated October 22, 2026
Sarah Slattery
Democrat
46.7%
362,040 projected votes
Scott Petersen
Republican
51.8%
401,473 projected votes
80%Petersen
20%Slattery
Petersen favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Petersen wins about 80 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Slattery +107,923 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide R +5.1, a 39,430 vote marginPetersen +147,353 net votes from 90 counties
Projected statewide vote
775,141 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Petersen R | 401,473 | 51.8% |
| Sarah Slattery D | 362,040 | 46.7% |
| Bob Krist, Paul Rumbaugh | 11,627 | 1.5% |
| Total | 775,141 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
93 counties| County | Slattery | Petersen | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 362,039 | 401,469 | 11,633 | 775,141 | R +5.1 |
| Douglas County | 145,010 | 75,961 | 3,365 | 224,336 | D +30.8 |
| Lancaster County | 80,779 | 49,247 | 1,980 | 132,006 | D +23.9 |
| Sarpy County | 41,867 | 34,525 | 1,163 | 77,555 | D +9.5 |
| Buffalo County | 6,356 | 12,350 | 285 | 18,991 | R +31.6 |
| Hall County | 6,546 | 11,629 | 277 | 18,452 | R +27.5 |
| Lincoln County | 3,728 | 9,755 | 205 | 13,688 | R +44.0 |
| Dodge County | 5,338 | 7,862 | 201 | 13,401 | R +18.8 |
| Madison County | 3,262 | 9,724 | 198 | 13,184 | R +49.0 |
| Platte County | 2,750 | 9,912 | 193 | 12,855 | R +55.7 |
| Cass County | 4,899 | 7,581 | 190 | 12,670 | R +21.2 |
| Scotts Bluff County | 3,839 | 8,130 | 183 | 12,152 | R +35.3 |
| Adams County | 4,125 | 7,601 | 179 | 11,905 | R +29.2 |
| Saunders County | 3,495 | 7,076 | 161 | 10,732 | R +33.4 |
| Washington County | 3,432 | 6,383 | 150 | 9,965 | R +29.6 |
| Gage County | 3,211 | 5,710 | 136 | 9,057 | R +27.6 |
| Seward County | 2,151 | 5,333 | 113 | 7,597 | R +41.9 |
| Dawson County | 1,767 | 5,002 | 103 | 6,872 | R +47.1 |
| Otoe County | 2,312 | 4,177 | 99 | 6,588 | R +28.3 |
| York County | 1,326 | 4,325 | 86 | 5,737 | R +52.3 |
| Dakota County | 1,659 | 3,116 | 73 | 4,848 | R +30.1 |
| Custer County | 891 | 3,861 | 73 | 4,825 | R +61.5 |
| Hamilton County | 962 | 3,500 | 68 | 4,530 | R +56.0 |
| Saline County | 1,758 | 2,694 | 68 | 4,520 | R +20.7 |
| Red Willow County | 930 | 3,515 | 68 | 4,513 | R +57.3 |
| Holt County | 694 | 3,645 | 67 | 4,406 | R +67.0 |
| Phelps County | 760 | 3,304 | 62 | 4,126 | R +61.6 |
| Cedar County | 734 | 3,285 | 61 | 4,080 | R +62.5 |
| Box Butte County | 1,090 | 2,776 | 59 | 3,925 | R +43.0 |
| Knox County | 797 | 3,031 | 58 | 3,886 | R +57.5 |
| Butler County | 885 | 2,900 | 58 | 3,843 | R +52.4 |
| Cheyenne County | 743 | 3,000 | 57 | 3,800 | R +59.4 |
| Cuming County | 715 | 2,880 | 55 | 3,650 | R +59.3 |
| Merrick County | 774 | 2,816 | 55 | 3,645 | R +56.0 |
| Wayne County | 1,019 | 2,470 | 53 | 3,542 | R +41.0 |
| Dawes County | 1,236 | 2,149 | 51 | 3,436 | R +26.6 |
| Keith County | 729 | 2,655 | 51 | 3,435 | R +56.1 |
| Richardson County | 1,032 | 2,208 | 49 | 3,289 | R +35.8 |
| Pierce County | 438 | 2,781 | 49 | 3,268 | R +71.7 |
| Burt County | 959 | 2,040 | 46 | 3,045 | R +35.5 |
| Jefferson County | 882 | 2,064 | 45 | 2,991 | R +39.5 |
| Kearney County | 674 | 2,188 | 43 | 2,905 | R +52.1 |
| Clay County | 617 | 2,209 | 43 | 2,869 | R +55.5 |
| Howard County | 694 | 2,109 | 42 | 2,845 | R +49.7 |
| Colfax County | 754 | 2,032 | 43 | 2,829 | R +45.2 |
| Antelope County | 362 | 2,385 | 42 | 2,789 | R +72.5 |
| Nemaha County | 875 | 1,848 | 42 | 2,765 | R +35.2 |
| Boone County | 531 | 2,101 | 40 | 2,672 | R +58.7 |
| Stanton County | 543 | 2,063 | 40 | 2,646 | R +57.4 |
| Cherry County | 365 | 2,197 | 39 | 2,601 | R +70.5 |
| Fillmore County | 702 | 1,830 | 39 | 2,571 | R +43.9 |
| Dixon County | 596 | 1,782 | 36 | 2,414 | R +49.1 |
| Thayer County | 513 | 1,822 | 36 | 2,371 | R +55.2 |
| Polk County | 491 | 1,804 | 35 | 2,330 | R +56.4 |
| Morrill County | 398 | 1,653 | 31 | 2,082 | R +60.3 |
| Furnas County | 366 | 1,654 | 31 | 2,051 | R +62.8 |
| Sheridan County | 397 | 1,575 | 30 | 2,002 | R +58.8 |
| Valley County | 431 | 1,473 | 29 | 1,933 | R +53.9 |
| Johnson County | 650 | 1,159 | 28 | 1,837 | R +27.7 |
| Nuckolls County | 350 | 1,438 | 28 | 1,816 | R +59.9 |
| Thurston County | 748 | 920 | 26 | 1,694 | R +10.2 |
| Chase County | 252 | 1,360 | 25 | 1,637 | R +67.7 |
| Harlan County | 318 | 1,175 | 22 | 1,515 | R +56.6 |
| Kimball County | 250 | 1,194 | 22 | 1,466 | R +64.5 |
| Webster County | 299 | 1,130 | 22 | 1,451 | R +57.3 |
| Nance County | 399 | 1,017 | 22 | 1,438 | R +42.9 |
| Sherman County | 370 | 980 | 21 | 1,371 | R +44.5 |
| Brown County | 218 | 1,105 | 20 | 1,343 | R +66.0 |
| Franklin County | 256 | 1,042 | 20 | 1,318 | R +59.7 |
| Perkins County | 211 | 986 | 18 | 1,215 | R +63.8 |
| Frontier County | 208 | 969 | 18 | 1,195 | R +63.7 |
| Hitchcock County | 183 | 971 | 17 | 1,171 | R +67.3 |
| Pawnee County | 289 | 855 | 17 | 1,161 | R +48.7 |
| Greeley County | 244 | 805 | 16 | 1,065 | R +52.7 |
| Garden County | 160 | 762 | 14 | 936 | R +64.4 |
| Gosper County | 200 | 715 | 14 | 929 | R +55.4 |
| Boyd County | 147 | 759 | 14 | 920 | R +66.4 |
| Garfield County | 128 | 700 | 12 | 840 | R +68.1 |
| Deuel County | 135 | 681 | 12 | 828 | R +66.0 |
| Dundy County | 114 | 673 | 12 | 799 | R +70.0 |
| Rock County | 99 | 566 | 10 | 675 | R +69.1 |
| Sioux County | 85 | 461 | 9 | 555 | R +67.8 |
| Hayes County | 32 | 385 | 7 | 424 | R +83.2 |
| Keya Paha County | 44 | 361 | 6 | 411 | R +76.9 |
| Wheeler County | 68 | 293 | 5 | 366 | R +61.6 |
| Logan County | 43 | 311 | 6 | 360 | R +74.3 |
| Hooker County | 70 | 283 | 5 | 358 | R +59.4 |
| Banner County | 55 | 295 | 6 | 356 | R +67.4 |
| Thomas County | 43 | 277 | 4 | 324 | R +72.3 |
| Loup County | 72 | 240 | 5 | 317 | R +53.0 |
| Grant County | 25 | 280 | 4 | 309 | R +82.4 |
| Arthur County | 24 | 225 | 4 | 253 | R +79.7 |
| McPherson County | 28 | 209 | 4 | 241 | R +75.1 |
| Blaine County | 33 | 189 | 4 | 226 | R +69.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +2.5 and R +12.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +1.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +28.2 |
| Blend of every leg | R +8.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +5.2 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +5.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +2.5 and R +12.7.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Slattery | Petersen | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||