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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 forecast · Connecticut Secretary Of State

Stephanie Thomas is all but certain to win Connecticut's secretary of state race.

Stephanie Thomas vs Peter Lumaj, with Stephanie Thomas running again. The model has Thomas ahead by 21.7 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +21.7Updated October 22, 2026
Stephanie Thomas
Democrat
59.9%
859,426 projected votes
Peter Lumaj
Republican
38.2%
547,905 projected votes
100%Thomas
0%Lumaj
Thomas all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Thomas wins about 100 of 100

Connecticut Secretary Of State by county

Middlesex CountyNew Haven CountyWindham CountyNew London CountyFairfield CountyTolland CountyLitchfield CountyHartford CountyHartfordFairfieldNew HavenNew LondonMiddlesexTollandLitchfieldWindham
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hartford County: Thomas +119,783Fairfield County: Thomas +90,482New Haven County: Thomas +56,277New London County: Thomas +25,107Middlesex County: Thomas +16,458Tolland County: Thomas +8,166Litchfield County: Lumaj +2,802Windham County: Lumaj +1,950
Thomas +316,273 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide D +21.7, a 311,521 vote marginLumaj +4,752 net votes from 2 counties

Projected statewide vote

1,435,542 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Stephanie Thomas D859,42659.9%
Peter Lumaj R547,90538.2%
Other candidates28,2102.0%
Total1,435,542100%

Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.

Projected vote by county

8 counties
CountyThomasLumajOtherTotalMargin
Statewide859,426547,90528,2111,435,542D +21.7
Hartford County254,512134,7297,802397,043D +30.2
Fairfield County202,113111,6316,289320,033D +28.3
New Haven County180,676124,3996,115311,190D +18.1
New London County75,16950,0622,510127,741D +19.6
Middlesex County50,13633,6781,68185,495D +19.3
Tolland County41,61533,4491,50576,569D +10.7
Litchfield County32,79735,5991,37169,767R +4.0
Windham County22,40824,35893847,704R +4.1

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Range of outcomes

80 percent of simulations
D +30.2D +13.2D +21.7

80 percent of simulations fall between D +30.2 and D +13.2. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorD +15.7
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +22.6
Blend of every legD +18.8
With incumbency and primary unityD +22.1
With polls, none in the raceD +21.7

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +30.2 and D +13.2.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedThomasLumajMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.