2026 forecast · Texas Governor
Greg Abbott is favored to win Texas's governorship.
Gina Hinojosa vs Greg Abbott. The model has Abbott ahead by 2.4 points, winning 71 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
Lean RModel R +2.4Polls R +3.3Updated October 22, 2026
Gina Hinojosa
Democrat
48.0%
4,797,573 projected votes
Greg Abbott
Republican
50.4%
5,039,110 projected votes
71%Abbott
29%Hinojosa
Abbott favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Abbott wins about 71 of 100
RatingLean R71% chance for Abbott
Model marginR +2.4Polls R +3.3
80 percent rangeD +3.5 to R +8.22,000 simulations
Projected votes9,997,645Abbott 50.4%
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hinojosa +1,265,802 net votes from 23 countiesStatewide R +2.5, a 251,742 vote marginAbbott +1,517,544 net votes from 231 counties
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Gina HinojosaDemocrat · 29% to win
3040506070
48.0%
Greg AbbottRepublican · 71% to win
3040506070
50.4%
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
9,997,645 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott R | 5,039,110 | 50.4% |
| Gina Hinojosa D | 4,797,573 | 48.0% |
| Pat Dixon L | 161,962 | 1.6% |
| Total | 9,997,645 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.5 and R +8.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 · 1,398 LV · A++16%Abbott +5.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 · 881 LV · A++16%Abbott +5.0
CBS News/YouGovOct 16 · 1,460 LV · C9.8%Abbott +4.0
On Point PollingOct 18 · 385 LV · Gold9.6%Abbott +2.5
University of Houston Hobby SchoolOct 14 · 2,000 LV · NR9.4%Abbott +3.0
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold8.6%Hinojosa +3.0
Every other poll together: 31%
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +3.3 | |
| CBS News/YouGov | 1,460 LV | 0d | R +4.9 |
| On Point Polling | 385 LV | 0d | R +2.5 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,398 LV | 0d | R +5.3 |
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 1d | R +1.8 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 1d | R +3.0 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 934 LV | 2d | R +2.0 |
| Marist University | 950 LV | 4d | R +6.1 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 617 LV | 7d | R +1.7 |
| GBAO (D) | 800 LV | 7d | R +0.3 |
| Guidant Polling for Public First Action | 800 LV | 10d | R +2.6 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 1,000 LV | 10d | D +0.9 |
| YouGov | 3,625 LV | 10d | D +0.1 |
| New York Times/Siena | 615 LV | 15d | D +2.3 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 881 LV | 17d | R +5.3 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 850 LV | 17d | R +4.8 |
| Big Data Poll | 698 LV | 19d | R +5.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) | 856 LV | 21d | R +3.2 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 23d | R +4.1 |
| Marist University | 1,139 RV | 25d | D +0.6 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 26d | R +3.5 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 31d | R +2.2 |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | 649 LV | 32d | R +5.6 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 614 LV | 34d | D +3.3 |
| Mason-Dixon | 625 LV | 35d | R +6.2 |
| Univision/YouGov | 1,000 RV | 41d | R +1.1 |
Model margin
Abbott +2.4
Chance of winning
Gina Hinojosa29%
Greg Abbott71%
Simulated vote
Gina Hinojosa48.0%
Greg Abbott50.4%
Pat Dixon1.6%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +13.9
FundamentalsR +8.3
With pollsR +2.6
Early vote turnoutD +0.2
With early voteR +2.4
Read from 731,837 ballots cast so far in Texas, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
72 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
Gina Hinojosa52
- Barack ObamaFormer Presidentsource
- Beto O'RourkeFormer U.S. Representative, 2022 nomineesource
- James TalaricoState Rep., U.S. Senate nomineesource
- Ruben GallegoU.S. Senator, Arizonasource
- Chris MurphyU.S. Senator, Connecticutsource
- Greg CasarU.S. Representative TX-35source
- Jasmine CrockettU.S. Representative TX-30source
- Lloyd DoggettU.S. Representative TX-37source
Greg Abbott20
- Donald TrumpPresidentsource
- Young Conservatives of TexasConservative student groupsource
- Dallas Police AssociationPolice unionsource
- Fort Worth Police Officers AssociationPolice unionsource
- Texas Association of Campground OwnersRV and campground trade group (TACO)source
- San Antonio Express-NewsNewspaper editorial boardsource
- Houston ChronicleNewspaper editorial boardsource
- Associated Builders and Contractors of TexasConstruction trade associationsource
On the air
Remy Numa: Fox News Power Rankings moved Abbott vs Hinojosa from Likely R to Lean R. source
Mark Halperin: His 2WAY 'Midterm Blitz' coverage described both the Texas governor and Senate races as in play, citing Vance's return to the state and money flowing to Paxton. source
Pod Save America hosts: Interviewed Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa about what it would take to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott. source
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Hinojosa | Abbott |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 44.4 | 53.9 |
| Women | 51% | 51.8 | 46.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 49.9 | 48.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 24% | 46.5 | 51.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 48.3 | 50.1 |
| 65+ | 27% | 48.6 | 49.9 |
| RaceWhite | 52% | 33.0 | 65.4 |
| Black | 13% | 78.6 | 19.8 |
| Latino | 27% | 57.4 | 41.0 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 66.8 | 31.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 25% | 27.4 | 71.0 |
| White women | 27% | 38.3 | 60.1 |
| Black men | 7% | 74.9 | 23.5 |
| Black women | 7% | 82.0 | 16.4 |
| Latino men | 14% | 54.6 | 43.7 |
| Latino women | 13% | 60.1 | 38.2 |
| All other races | 7% | 66.8 | 31.2 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Hinojosa | Abbott | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,791,137 | 5,042,879 | 163,629 | 9,997,645 | R +2.5 |
| Harris County | 816,651 | 542,201 | 22,095 | 1,380,947 | D +19.8 |
| Dallas County | 523,708 | 242,634 | 13,253 | 779,595 | D +36.0 |
| Tarrant County | 373,597 | 335,457 | 12,263 | 721,317 | D +5.3 |
| Bexar County | 418,881 | 254,114 | 11,639 | 684,634 | D +24.1 |
| Travis County | 413,091 | 124,839 | 12,101 | 550,031 | D +52.5 |
| Collin County | 217,043 | 213,697 | 7,004 | 437,744 | D +0.7 |
| Denton County | 179,331 | 194,717 | 6,468 | 380,516 | R +4.0 |
| Fort Bend County | 169,346 | 132,776 | 4,601 | 306,723 | D +11.9 |
| Williamson County | 141,212 | 118,924 | 6,124 | 266,260 | D +8.4 |
| Montgomery County | 76,760 | 171,994 | 3,532 | 252,286 | R +37.7 |
| El Paso County | 150,252 | 76,809 | 4,398 | 231,459 | D +31.8 |
| Hidalgo County | 113,517 | 79,530 | 2,940 | 195,987 | D +17.3 |
| Brazoria County | 56,677 | 76,767 | 2,170 | 135,614 | R +14.8 |
| Galveston County | 53,954 | 78,440 | 2,427 | 134,821 | R +18.2 |
| Bell County | 51,964 | 61,395 | 1,960 | 115,319 | R +8.2 |
| Nueces County | 54,214 | 56,299 | 1,912 | 112,425 | R +1.8 |
| Hays County | 62,107 | 44,898 | 2,519 | 109,524 | D +15.6 |
| Lubbock County | 36,737 | 70,574 | 1,856 | 109,167 | R +31.0 |
| Cameron County | 58,390 | 46,570 | 1,815 | 106,775 | D +11.1 |
| Smith County | 25,995 | 63,346 | 1,085 | 90,426 | R +41.4 |
| McLennan County | 33,260 | 54,308 | 1,244 | 88,812 | R +23.8 |
| Comal County | 26,023 | 59,216 | 1,386 | 86,625 | R +38.3 |
| Ellis County | 27,836 | 52,221 | 1,302 | 81,359 | R +29.9 |
| Brazos County | 34,488 | 44,898 | 1,620 | 81,006 | R +12.9 |
| Jefferson County | 37,850 | 38,361 | 1,004 | 77,215 | R +0.7 |
| Parker County | 13,516 | 59,257 | 1,108 | 73,881 | R +62.0 |
| Guadalupe County | 26,878 | 42,453 | 1,199 | 70,530 | R +22.1 |
| Johnson County | 18,049 | 48,917 | 1,020 | 67,986 | R +45.4 |
| Webb County | 35,528 | 23,156 | 1,443 | 60,127 | D +20.6 |
| Randall County | 12,702 | 44,224 | 808 | 57,734 | R +54.6 |
| Kaufman County | 19,356 | 35,384 | 777 | 55,517 | R +28.9 |
| Grayson County | 12,609 | 40,768 | 703 | 54,080 | R +52.1 |
| Midland County | 11,319 | 39,265 | 771 | 51,355 | R +54.4 |
| Rockwall County | 15,658 | 34,800 | 769 | 51,227 | R +37.3 |
| Taylor County | 13,322 | 35,039 | 786 | 49,147 | R +44.1 |
| Gregg County | 12,439 | 27,859 | 449 | 40,747 | R +37.9 |
| Wichita County | 13,027 | 26,366 | 600 | 39,993 | R +33.3 |
| Tom Green County | 11,556 | 27,682 | 638 | 39,876 | R +40.4 |
| Hunt County | 8,474 | 29,296 | 575 | 38,345 | R +54.3 |
| Ector County | 9,821 | 25,813 | 470 | 36,104 | R +44.3 |
| Bastrop County | 15,477 | 18,869 | 845 | 35,191 | R +9.7 |
| Henderson County | 6,145 | 26,707 | 432 | 33,284 | R +61.9 |
| Bowie County | 9,016 | 22,829 | 420 | 32,265 | R +42.9 |
| Hood County | 6,210 | 24,366 | 434 | 31,010 | R +58.5 |
| Victoria County | 9,492 | 21,035 | 402 | 30,929 | R +37.4 |
| Orange County | 5,369 | 24,877 | 305 | 30,551 | R +63.9 |
| Wise County | 4,765 | 25,297 | 427 | 30,489 | R +67.4 |
| Angelina County | 7,974 | 21,521 | 328 | 29,823 | R +45.4 |
| Potter County | 9,198 | 19,839 | 502 | 29,539 | R +36.0 |
| Liberty County | 5,252 | 20,578 | 341 | 26,171 | R +58.6 |
| Harrison County | 6,783 | 18,550 | 281 | 25,614 | R +45.9 |
| Kerr County | 6,167 | 18,553 | 376 | 25,096 | R +49.4 |
| Kendall County | 5,668 | 18,839 | 399 | 24,906 | R +52.9 |
| Walker County | 7,830 | 15,940 | 386 | 24,156 | R +33.6 |
| Van Zandt County | 3,103 | 20,558 | 459 | 24,120 | R +72.5 |
| Burnet County | 5,647 | 17,869 | 406 | 23,922 | R +51.1 |
| Hardin County | 3,052 | 20,107 | 211 | 23,370 | R +73.0 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,514 | 14,996 | 296 | 22,806 | R +32.8 |
| Wilson County | 5,844 | 16,602 | 272 | 22,718 | R +47.4 |
| Coryell County | 7,293 | 14,950 | 408 | 22,651 | R +33.8 |
| San Patricio County | 8,066 | 13,949 | 313 | 22,328 | R +26.3 |
| Waller County | 8,152 | 13,162 | 280 | 21,594 | R +23.2 |
| Wood County | 3,313 | 17,446 | 210 | 20,969 | R +67.5 |
| Medina County | 6,385 | 14,292 | 230 | 20,907 | R +37.8 |
| Polk County | 4,585 | 15,442 | 264 | 20,291 | R +53.5 |
| Chambers County | 3,636 | 15,502 | 291 | 19,429 | R +61.1 |
| Rusk County | 4,029 | 14,637 | 207 | 18,873 | R +56.2 |
| Lamar County | 3,840 | 14,411 | 240 | 18,491 | R +57.2 |
| Anderson County | 3,759 | 14,248 | 200 | 18,207 | R +57.6 |
| Cherokee County | 3,388 | 14,132 | 177 | 17,697 | R +60.7 |
| Cooke County | 2,836 | 14,361 | 245 | 17,442 | R +66.0 |
| Navarro County | 4,300 | 12,667 | 223 | 17,190 | R +48.8 |
| Upshur County | 2,642 | 13,897 | 201 | 16,740 | R +67.3 |
| Erath County | 2,765 | 13,125 | 242 | 16,132 | R +64.2 |
| Washington County | 3,585 | 12,115 | 240 | 15,940 | R +53.6 |
| Atascosa County | 4,993 | 10,683 | 239 | 15,915 | R +35.8 |
| Brown County | 2,032 | 12,551 | 177 | 14,760 | R +71.2 |
| Gillespie County | 3,007 | 11,282 | 202 | 14,491 | R +57.1 |
| Wharton County | 3,796 | 10,555 | 130 | 14,481 | R +46.7 |
| Starr County | 8,017 | 6,204 | 231 | 14,452 | D +12.6 |
| Caldwell County | 6,617 | 7,498 | 332 | 14,447 | R +6.2 |
| Hopkins County | 2,978 | 11,103 | 171 | 14,252 | R +57.0 |
| Hill County | 2,692 | 11,096 | 196 | 13,984 | R +60.1 |
| Fannin County | 2,190 | 11,552 | 195 | 13,937 | R +67.3 |
| Jasper County | 2,326 | 10,847 | 107 | 13,280 | R +64.2 |
| Maverick County | 7,221 | 5,793 | 252 | 13,266 | D +10.8 |
| Austin County | 2,478 | 10,280 | 168 | 12,926 | R +60.4 |
| Val Verde County | 5,537 | 7,160 | 219 | 12,916 | R +12.4 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,708 | 6,226 | 145 | 12,079 | R +4.3 |
| Llano County | 2,465 | 9,411 | 181 | 12,057 | R +57.6 |
| Cass County | 2,182 | 9,537 | 118 | 11,837 | R +62.2 |
| Matagorda County | 3,131 | 8,531 | 142 | 11,804 | R +45.8 |
| Fayette County | 2,260 | 9,290 | 129 | 11,679 | R +60.2 |
| Grimes County | 2,235 | 9,271 | 152 | 11,658 | R +60.4 |
| Bandera County | 2,299 | 9,075 | 197 | 11,571 | R +58.5 |
| Aransas County | 2,526 | 8,670 | 182 | 11,378 | R +53.9 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,759 | 9,358 | 147 | 11,264 | R +67.5 |
| San Jacinto County | 2,204 | 8,670 | 165 | 11,039 | R +58.5 |
| Milam County | 2,318 | 7,296 | 127 | 9,741 | R +51.2 |
| Kleberg County | 4,587 | 4,903 | 125 | 9,615 | R +3.3 |
| Lampasas County | 2,096 | 7,341 | 154 | 9,591 | R +54.8 |
| Panola County | 1,737 | 7,763 | 76 | 9,576 | R +63.0 |
| Montague County | 1,026 | 8,021 | 119 | 9,166 | R +76.4 |
| Lavaca County | 1,135 | 7,894 | 82 | 9,111 | R +74.3 |
| Titus County | 1,992 | 6,850 | 107 | 8,949 | R +54.3 |
| Uvalde County | 3,458 | 5,325 | 125 | 8,908 | R +21.0 |
| Howard County | 1,875 | 6,663 | 174 | 8,712 | R +55.0 |
| Bee County | 2,932 | 5,632 | 131 | 8,695 | R +31.1 |
| Colorado County | 1,914 | 6,615 | 95 | 8,624 | R +54.5 |
| Hale County | 1,861 | 6,552 | 111 | 8,524 | R +55.1 |
| Shelby County | 1,601 | 6,771 | 68 | 8,440 | R +61.1 |
| Houston County | 1,951 | 6,330 | 75 | 8,356 | R +52.3 |
| Tyler County | 1,179 | 7,060 | 109 | 8,348 | R +70.5 |
| Bosque County | 1,502 | 6,663 | 125 | 8,290 | R +62.3 |
| Limestone County | 1,903 | 6,044 | 97 | 8,044 | R +51.5 |
| Burleson County | 1,391 | 6,356 | 87 | 7,834 | R +63.3 |
| Freestone County | 1,322 | 6,359 | 86 | 7,767 | R +64.9 |
| Leon County | 828 | 6,701 | 84 | 7,613 | R +77.2 |
| Lee County | 1,429 | 5,727 | 109 | 7,265 | R +59.2 |
| Young County | 875 | 6,227 | 101 | 7,203 | R +74.3 |
| Hutchinson County | 795 | 6,296 | 108 | 7,199 | R +76.4 |
| Eastland County | 924 | 6,183 | 65 | 7,172 | R +73.3 |
| Blanco County | 1,716 | 5,250 | 149 | 7,115 | R +49.5 |
| DeWitt County | 1,276 | 5,738 | 64 | 7,078 | R +63.0 |
| Robertson County | 1,804 | 5,041 | 90 | 6,935 | R +46.6 |
| Hockley County | 1,264 | 5,523 | 90 | 6,877 | R +61.9 |
| Calhoun County | 1,793 | 4,975 | 103 | 6,871 | R +46.4 |
| Gray County | 703 | 5,998 | 88 | 6,789 | R +78.0 |
| Gonzales County | 1,497 | 5,067 | 87 | 6,651 | R +53.7 |
| Jones County | 949 | 5,423 | 84 | 6,456 | R +69.3 |
| Trinity County | 1,183 | 5,001 | 75 | 6,259 | R +61.0 |
| Callahan County | 663 | 5,306 | 72 | 6,041 | R +76.8 |
| Falls County | 1,684 | 3,970 | 69 | 5,723 | R +39.9 |
| Rains County | 804 | 4,789 | 63 | 5,656 | R +70.4 |
| Comanche County | 770 | 4,728 | 78 | 5,576 | R +70.9 |
| Jackson County | 872 | 4,605 | 45 | 5,522 | R +67.5 |
| Willacy County | 2,992 | 2,276 | 74 | 5,342 | D +13.4 |
| Gaines County | 447 | 4,663 | 68 | 5,178 | R +81.5 |
| Scurry County | 686 | 4,371 | 57 | 5,114 | R +72.0 |
| Clay County | 565 | 4,426 | 50 | 5,041 | R +76.6 |
| Andrews County | 741 | 4,237 | 60 | 5,038 | R +69.4 |
| Newton County | 988 | 3,982 | 40 | 5,010 | R +59.8 |
| Red River County | 1,074 | 3,784 | 44 | 4,902 | R +55.3 |
| Sabine County | 565 | 4,190 | 43 | 4,798 | R +75.6 |
| Karnes County | 1,129 | 3,611 | 52 | 4,792 | R +51.8 |
| Frio County | 2,289 | 2,383 | 76 | 4,748 | R +2.0 |
| Madison County | 903 | 3,782 | 47 | 4,732 | R +60.9 |
| Moore County | 788 | 3,809 | 61 | 4,658 | R +64.8 |
| Morris County | 1,236 | 3,374 | 46 | 4,656 | R +45.9 |
| Nolan County | 969 | 3,594 | 74 | 4,637 | R +56.5 |
| Camp County | 1,069 | 3,453 | 51 | 4,573 | R +52.1 |
| Franklin County | 751 | 3,725 | 54 | 4,530 | R +65.7 |
| Live Oak County | 729 | 3,730 | 45 | 4,504 | R +66.6 |
| Somervell County | 829 | 3,580 | 62 | 4,471 | R +61.6 |
| Archer County | 461 | 3,797 | 43 | 4,301 | R +77.5 |
| Brewster County | 2,141 | 2,006 | 98 | 4,245 | D +3.1 |
| Pecos County | 1,335 | 2,768 | 88 | 4,191 | R +34.1 |
| Zapata County | 1,974 | 2,041 | 48 | 4,063 | R +1.6 |
| Wilbarger County | 845 | 3,140 | 49 | 4,034 | R +56.8 |
| Marion County | 1,039 | 2,910 | 48 | 3,997 | R +46.8 |
| Deaf Smith County | 987 | 2,957 | 44 | 3,988 | R +49.4 |
| Duval County | 2,170 | 1,703 | 59 | 3,932 | D +12.0 |
| Hamilton County | 588 | 3,204 | 46 | 3,838 | R +68.2 |
| Lamb County | 682 | 3,008 | 41 | 3,731 | R +62.3 |
| Runnels County | 428 | 3,214 | 37 | 3,679 | R +75.8 |
| Coleman County | 406 | 3,152 | 40 | 3,598 | R +76.4 |
| Goliad County | 808 | 2,677 | 53 | 3,538 | R +52.8 |
| Jack County | 302 | 3,176 | 35 | 3,513 | R +81.9 |
| Stephens County | 299 | 3,022 | 30 | 3,351 | R +81.3 |
| San Augustine County | 797 | 2,463 | 36 | 3,296 | R +50.7 |
| Dawson County | 662 | 2,548 | 36 | 3,246 | R +58.0 |
| Ward County | 635 | 2,518 | 45 | 3,198 | R +58.9 |
| Terry County | 572 | 2,544 | 51 | 3,167 | R +62.1 |
| Dimmit County | 1,898 | 1,173 | 44 | 3,115 | D +23.3 |
| Zavala County | 2,034 | 982 | 36 | 3,052 | D +34.4 |
| Reeves County | 1,244 | 1,733 | 46 | 3,023 | R +16.2 |
| McCulloch County | 454 | 2,508 | 39 | 3,001 | R +68.5 |
| Carson County | 254 | 2,395 | 40 | 2,689 | R +79.6 |
| Refugio County | 851 | 1,786 | 32 | 2,669 | R +34.9 |
| Ochiltree County | 236 | 2,343 | 26 | 2,605 | R +80.7 |
| San Saba County | 264 | 2,131 | 22 | 2,417 | R +77.1 |
| Mitchell County | 328 | 2,058 | 27 | 2,413 | R +71.7 |
| Brooks County | 1,454 | 857 | 33 | 2,344 | D +25.6 |
| Mills County | 251 | 2,032 | 32 | 2,315 | R +76.8 |
| Parmer County | 352 | 1,926 | 23 | 2,301 | R +68.4 |
| Delta County | 388 | 1,821 | 36 | 2,245 | R +63.6 |
| Mason County | 428 | 1,749 | 24 | 2,201 | R +60.0 |
| Childress County | 243 | 1,833 | 30 | 2,106 | R +75.5 |
| Lynn County | 323 | 1,750 | 29 | 2,102 | R +67.8 |
| Kimble County | 251 | 1,823 | 25 | 2,099 | R +74.9 |
| Swisher County | 413 | 1,631 | 37 | 2,081 | R +58.6 |
| Yoakum County | 308 | 1,710 | 29 | 2,047 | R +68.3 |
| Haskell County | 308 | 1,700 | 18 | 2,026 | R +68.8 |
| La Salle County | 940 | 1,048 | 18 | 2,006 | R +5.2 |
| Wheeler County | 164 | 1,760 | 18 | 1,942 | R +82.2 |
| Presidio County | 1,315 | 527 | 36 | 1,878 | D +42.0 |
| Castro County | 389 | 1,445 | 30 | 1,864 | R +56.6 |
| Hartley County | 157 | 1,667 | 17 | 1,841 | R +82.1 |
| Hansford County | 136 | 1,615 | 19 | 1,770 | R +83.5 |
| Floyd County | 305 | 1,434 | 19 | 1,758 | R +64.5 |
| Winkler County | 288 | 1,440 | 23 | 1,751 | R +65.9 |
| Martin County | 232 | 1,489 | 22 | 1,743 | R +72.1 |
| Bailey County | 345 | 1,326 | 19 | 1,690 | R +57.9 |
| Crosby County | 417 | 1,164 | 17 | 1,598 | R +46.6 |
| Jim Hogg County | 957 | 594 | 16 | 1,567 | D +23.3 |
| Real County | 264 | 1,282 | 16 | 1,562 | R +65.3 |
| Fisher County | 296 | 1,240 | 22 | 1,558 | R +60.4 |
| Coke County | 172 | 1,366 | 17 | 1,555 | R +76.7 |
| Garza County | 230 | 1,257 | 13 | 1,500 | R +68.4 |
| Baylor County | 169 | 1,297 | 21 | 1,487 | R +75.9 |
| Hemphill County | 188 | 1,232 | 23 | 1,443 | R +72.6 |
| Shackelford County | 132 | 1,297 | 12 | 1,441 | R +80.7 |
| Donley County | 150 | 1,247 | 19 | 1,416 | R +78.0 |
| Dallam County | 151 | 1,222 | 18 | 1,391 | R +77.1 |
| Kinney County | 354 | 919 | 25 | 1,298 | R +43.2 |
| Crane County | 189 | 1,055 | 15 | 1,259 | R +68.5 |
| Crockett County | 327 | 908 | 24 | 1,259 | R +46.1 |
| Sutton County | 225 | 1,007 | 14 | 1,246 | R +63.0 |
| Hardeman County | 180 | 1,022 | 10 | 1,212 | R +69.4 |
| Knox County | 196 | 967 | 14 | 1,177 | R +65.8 |
| Upton County | 152 | 978 | 20 | 1,150 | R +71.9 |
| Concho County | 164 | 935 | 18 | 1,117 | R +69.5 |
| Lipscomb County | 107 | 960 | 16 | 1,083 | R +78.6 |
| Jeff Davis County | 442 | 575 | 35 | 1,052 | R +12.5 |
| Collingsworth County | 122 | 902 | 11 | 1,035 | R +75.2 |
| Hall County | 138 | 875 | 13 | 1,026 | R +72.0 |
| Schleicher County | 194 | 807 | 14 | 1,015 | R +60.7 |
| Armstrong County | 78 | 872 | 13 | 963 | R +82.0 |
| Hudspeth County | 310 | 612 | 30 | 952 | R +31.6 |
| Menard County | 150 | 714 | 7 | 871 | R +64.8 |
| Dickens County | 139 | 693 | 8 | 840 | R +66.2 |
| Reagan County | 133 | 683 | 13 | 829 | R +66.3 |
| Sherman County | 54 | 752 | 20 | 826 | R +84.2 |
| Oldham County | 75 | 739 | 9 | 823 | R +80.7 |
| Throckmorton County | 66 | 677 | 9 | 752 | R +81.1 |
| Cochran County | 137 | 591 | 14 | 742 | R +61.8 |
| Culberson County | 333 | 387 | 16 | 736 | R +7.1 |
| Irion County | 91 | 608 | 10 | 709 | R +72.6 |
| Edwards County | 93 | 563 | 7 | 663 | R +71.0 |
| Briscoe County | 53 | 570 | 6 | 629 | R +82.2 |
| Stonewall County | 97 | 490 | 7 | 594 | R +66.1 |
| Motley County | 36 | 529 | 7 | 572 | R +85.9 |
| Cottle County | 82 | 480 | 6 | 568 | R +71.0 |
| Glasscock County | 37 | 511 | 4 | 552 | R +86.5 |
| Sterling County | 34 | 471 | 6 | 511 | R +85.8 |
| Foard County | 91 | 410 | 6 | 507 | R +62.7 |
| Roberts County | 14 | 408 | 6 | 428 | R +92.1 |
| Terrell County | 98 | 280 | 7 | 385 | R +47.8 |
| Kent County | 41 | 330 | 6 | 377 | R +75.9 |
| Borden County | 14 | 306 | 2 | 322 | R +90.9 |
| McMullen County | 22 | 251 | 3 | 276 | R +83.2 |
| King County | 6 | 105 | 1 | 112 | R +90.5 |
| Kenedy County | 19 | 47 | 1 | 67 | R +39.3 |
| Loving County | 4 | 21 | 1 | 26 | R +72.0 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.