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2026 ballot measure forecast

North Dakota Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2

Free breakfast and lunch for all public school students

Requires public schools to give every student one free breakfast and one free lunch each school day, with full state reimbursement adjusted for inflation and the Legacy Fund earnings as fallback funding, starting 2027-28. The forecast has Yes at 45.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 37% chance to pass.

Leans failCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentEducationUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
37%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
45.8%
80% range 34 to 59
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
45.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
45.8% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority under current rules; unclear whether a same-day Measure 1 win would apply to it.
The campaign

Citizen sponsoring committee; estimated cost $124M to $134M per biennium; Farm Bureau neutral; no money totals found.

Also on the North Dakota ballot

Constitutional Measure No. 1
Require 60% voter approval for constitutional amendments
61%

Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2 by county

Adams CountyBarnes CountyBenson CountyBillings CountyBottineau CountyBowman CountyBurke CountyBurleigh CountyCass CountyCavalier CountyDickey CountyDivide CountyDunn CountyEddy CountyEmmons CountyFoster CountyGolden Valley CountyGrand Forks CountyGrant CountyGriggs CountyHettinger CountyKidder CountyLaMoure CountyLogan CountyMcHenry CountyMcIntosh CountyMcKenzie CountyMcLean CountyMercer CountyMorton CountyMountrail CountyNelson CountyOliver CountyPembina CountyPierce CountyRamsey CountyRansom CountyRenville CountyRichland CountyRolette CountySargent CountySheridan CountySioux CountySlope CountyStark CountySteele CountyStutsman CountyTowner CountyTraill CountyWalsh CountyWard CountyWells CountyWilliams CountyCassBurleighGrand ForksWardMortonStarkWilliamsStutsmanRichlandMcLeanRamseyBarnes
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Cass County: Yes +2,505Rolette County: Yes +462Grand Forks County: Yes +187Sioux County: Yes +132Benson County: Yes +12Burleigh County: No +3,139Stark County: No +1,893Ward County: No +1,874Williams County: No +1,802Morton County: No +1,550Mercer County: No +761McKenzie County: No +751McLean County: No +637Stutsman County: No +629Emmons County: No +413Bottineau County: No +389McHenry County: No +385Richland County: No +380Dunn County: No +354Bowman County: No +321Walsh County: No +316Pembina County: No +301Wells County: No +294Ramsey County: No +287Mountrail County: No +231Dickey County: No +224LaMoure County: No +222Grant County: No +218Hettinger County: No +215Logan County: No +213Barnes County: No +208McIntosh County: No +206Kidder County: No +197Burke County: No +193Foster County: No +193Pierce County: No +192Golden Valley County: No +187Renville County: No +187Oliver County: No +178Cavalier County: No +166Adams County: No +163Sheridan County: No +140Divide County: No +139Griggs County: No +119Traill County: No +118Billings County: No +114Slope County: No +92Eddy County: No +87Towner County: No +82Sargent County: No +68Nelson County: No +60Ransom County: No +49Steele County: No +12
Yes +3,298 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide No +8.4, a 17,651 vote marginNo +20,949 net votes from 48 counties

Projected vote

209,043 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes95,69645.8%
No113,34754.2%
Total209,043100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Cass County25,67223,16748,83952.6%
Burleigh County13,66916,80830,47744.9%
Grand Forks County8,6408,45317,09350.5%
Ward County6,6348,50815,14243.8%
Morton County4,0985,6489,74642.0%
Stark County3,1475,0408,18738.4%
Williams County2,7104,5127,22237.5%
Stutsman County2,5423,1715,71344.5%
Richland County2,2932,6734,96646.2%
McLean County1,4222,0593,48140.9%
Ramsey County1,4851,7723,25745.6%
Barnes County1,5031,7113,21446.8%
Mercer County1,1121,8732,98537.3%
McKenzie County1,0851,8362,92137.1%
Walsh County1,2311,5472,77844.3%
Traill County1,1761,2942,47047.6%
Bottineau County9671,3562,32341.6%
Rolette County1,3849222,30660.0%
Mountrail County1,0201,2512,27144.9%
Pembina County8291,1301,95942.3%
McHenry County6931,0781,77139.1%
Ransom County7337821,51548.4%
Dickey County6328561,48842.5%
Wells County5508441,39439.5%
Dunn County5188721,39037.3%
LaMoure County5557771,33241.7%
Sargent County6126801,29247.4%
Emmons County4298421,27133.8%
Cavalier County5517171,26843.5%
Nelson County5836431,22647.6%
Pierce County5137051,21842.1%
Benson County6065941,20050.5%
Bowman County4017221,12335.7%
Foster County4196121,03140.6%
Grant County34356190437.9%
McIntosh County34555189638.5%
Kidder County34253988138.8%
Hettinger County31452984337.2%
Divide County34148082141.5%
Griggs County34846781542.7%
Adams County30446777139.4%
Eddy County33642375944.3%
Renville County27946674537.4%
Towner County31039270244.2%
Logan County23644968534.5%
Oliver County25343168437.0%
Burke County23342665935.4%
Steele County31532764249.1%
Golden Valley County22741464135.4%
Sioux County33320153462.4%
Sheridan County18232250436.1%
Billings County16327744037.0%
Slope County7817024831.5%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Dakota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: valleynewslive.com, ndfb.org, sos.nd.gov. All measures.