Kelly Ayotte is very likely to win New Hampshire's governorship.
Cinde Warmington vs Kelly Ayotte. The model has Ayotte ahead by 11.6 points, winning 97 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
689,262 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte R | 376,082 | 54.6% |
| Cinde Warmington D | 296,224 | 43.0% |
| Stephen Villee L | 9,374 | 1.4% |
| Jon Kiper I | 7,513 | 1.1% |
| Total | 689,262 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +3.7 and R +19.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +14.8 | |
| National Public Affairs | 600 LV | 3d | R +16.038 to 54 |
| YouGov | 1,520 LV | 10d | R +9.040 to 49 |
| Saint Anselm College for AARP | 1,042 LV | 16d | R +7.045 to 52 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 613 LV | 23d | R +11.041 to 52 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,418 LV | 24d | R +4.043 to 47 |
| co/efficient (R) | 958 LV | 34d | R +21.034 to 55 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,878 LV | 52d | R +10.039 to 49 |
| Saint Anselm College | 1,411 LV | 58d | R +11.038 to 49 |
| Saint Anselm College | 1,614 RV | 112d | R +8.037 to 45 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2,232 LV | 114d | R +5.039 to 44 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
New Hampshire has no early vote reported yet, so its turnout correction comes from similar states that do and from its primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
18 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Jeanne ShaheenU.S. Senatorsource
- Maggie HassanU.S. Senatorsource
- Chris PappasU.S. Representative NH-1, Senate nomineesource
- Maggie GoodlanderU.S. Representative NH-2source
- Eric HolderFormer U.S. Attorney Generalsource
- Kamala HarrisFormer Vice Presidentsource
- AFT New HampshireTeachers unionsource
- New Hampshire AFL-CIOState labor federationsource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Warmington | Ayotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 38.8 | 58.7 |
| Women | 55% | 49.1 | 48.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 11% | 44.7 | 52.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 19% | 41.3 | 56.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 36% | 42.1 | 55.4 |
| 65+ | 35% | 48.4 | 49.2 |
| RaceWhite | 91% | 42.1 | 55.5 |
| Black | 1% | 80.5 | 17.1 |
| Latino | 3% | 61.5 | 36.0 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 69.8 | 27.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 41% | 35.7 | 61.9 |
| White women | 50% | 47.4 | 50.2 |
| Latino men | 2% | 60.0 | 37.5 |
| Latino women | 2% | 63.0 | 34.5 |
| All other races | 5% | 69.8 | 27.3 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
10 counties| County | Warmington | Ayotte | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 296,156 | 376,052 | 17,054 | 689,262 | R +11.6 |
| Hillsborough | 81,440 | 108,597 | 4,873 | 194,910 | R +13.6 |
| Rockingham County | 70,949 | 93,790 | 3,705 | 168,444 | R +13.3 |
| Merrimack County | 34,104 | 42,033 | 1,952 | 78,089 | R +9.9 |
| Strafford County | 30,767 | 31,523 | 1,729 | 64,019 | R +0.9 |
| Grafton County | 24,755 | 21,409 | 1,281 | 47,445 | D +7.5 |
| Cheshire County | 18,489 | 18,374 | 1,023 | 37,886 | D +0.6 |
| Belknap County | 10,658 | 22,125 | 772 | 33,555 | R +33.9 |
| Carroll County | 11,412 | 17,302 | 616 | 29,330 | R +19.9 |
| Sullivan County | 8,445 | 12,127 | 614 | 21,186 | R +17.1 |
| Coos County | 5,137 | 8,772 | 489 | 14,398 | R +25.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.