Kevin Hern is all but certain to win Oklahoma's Senate seat.
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas vs Kevin Hern, an open seat. The model has Hern ahead by 27.0 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,309,667 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hern R | 792,543 | 60.5% |
| N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas D | 439,068 | 33.5% |
| Sevier White L | 39,814 | 3.0% |
| Curtis Stinnett I | 19,121 | 1.5% |
| Ron Meinhard I | 19,121 | 1.5% |
| Total | 1,309,667 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +19.7 and R +33.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +32.7 | |
| CHS & Associates | 500 RV | 70d | R +24.025 to 49 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 22,879 ballots cast so far in Oklahoma, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
11 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Thomas | Hern |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 30.1 | 63.8 |
| Women | 51% | 36.4 | 57.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 35.9 | 57.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 33.6 | 60.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 31.9 | 62.2 |
| 65+ | 33% | 33.4 | 60.6 |
| RaceWhite | 73% | 25.3 | 68.9 |
| Black | 7% | 75.2 | 19.0 |
| Latino | 6% | 46.3 | 47.8 |
| Asian and other | 14% | 48.9 | 44.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 35% | 20.7 | 73.5 |
| White women | 38% | 29.4 | 64.7 |
| Black men | 3% | 71.8 | 22.4 |
| Black women | 4% | 78.5 | 15.8 |
| Latino men | 3% | 44.2 | 49.6 |
| Latino women | 3% | 48.4 | 46.0 |
| All other races | 14% | 48.9 | 44.1 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by county
77 counties| County | Thomas | Hern | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 437,796 | 793,696 | 78,175 | 1,309,667 | R +27.2 |
| Oklahoma County | 126,603 | 108,954 | 14,770 | 250,327 | D +7.2 |
| Tulsa County | 91,091 | 115,993 | 12,518 | 219,602 | R +11.2 |
| Cleveland County | 44,033 | 51,870 | 6,449 | 102,352 | R +7.4 |
| Canadian County | 17,964 | 36,665 | 3,549 | 58,178 | R +32.0 |
| Rogers County | 7,892 | 27,899 | 2,448 | 38,239 | R +52.1 |
| Wagoner County | 7,067 | 22,353 | 1,812 | 31,232 | R +49.0 |
| Comanche County | 11,757 | 15,671 | 2,001 | 29,429 | R +13.1 |
| Payne County | 9,584 | 14,680 | 1,770 | 26,034 | R +19.5 |
| Creek County | 5,383 | 18,432 | 1,520 | 25,335 | R +51.5 |
| Pottawatomie County | 5,838 | 16,240 | 1,459 | 23,537 | R +44.1 |
| Grady County | 3,935 | 15,213 | 1,115 | 20,263 | R +55.5 |
| Muskogee County | 5,996 | 13,023 | 1,236 | 20,255 | R +34.7 |
| Logan County | 5,021 | 13,339 | 1,151 | 19,511 | R +42.4 |
| Washington County | 4,377 | 13,764 | 1,240 | 19,381 | R +48.4 |
| Garfield County | 4,481 | 12,718 | 1,156 | 18,355 | R +44.8 |
| McClain County | 3,140 | 13,038 | 959 | 17,137 | R +57.6 |
| Osage County | 4,709 | 11,287 | 1,003 | 16,999 | R +38.6 |
| Carter County | 4,255 | 10,271 | 862 | 15,388 | R +39.0 |
| Cherokee County | 4,909 | 9,442 | 1,030 | 15,381 | R +29.4 |
| Stephens County | 2,900 | 11,190 | 820 | 14,910 | R +55.5 |
| Delaware County | 2,781 | 11,257 | 848 | 14,886 | R +56.9 |
| Le Flore County | 2,238 | 11,343 | 913 | 14,494 | R +62.8 |
| Pittsburg County | 2,997 | 10,651 | 825 | 14,473 | R +52.9 |
| Bryan County | 3,533 | 9,862 | 809 | 14,204 | R +44.5 |
| Mayes County | 2,532 | 10,729 | 892 | 14,153 | R +57.8 |
| Kay County | 3,324 | 9,621 | 944 | 13,889 | R +45.2 |
| Pontotoc County | 3,792 | 8,062 | 783 | 12,637 | R +33.6 |
| Lincoln County | 2,301 | 9,331 | 742 | 12,374 | R +56.7 |
| Sequoyah County | 2,478 | 8,900 | 740 | 12,118 | R +52.9 |
| Okmulgee County | 3,380 | 7,784 | 700 | 11,864 | R +37.1 |
| McCurtain County | 1,820 | 6,987 | 552 | 9,359 | R +55.0 |
| Garvin County | 1,587 | 6,882 | 483 | 8,952 | R +59.0 |
| Ottawa County | 2,014 | 6,023 | 766 | 8,803 | R +45.5 |
| Custer County | 1,842 | 6,396 | 507 | 8,745 | R +52.0 |
| Caddo County | 2,163 | 5,224 | 438 | 7,825 | R +39.0 |
| McIntosh County | 1,667 | 4,938 | 377 | 6,982 | R +46.7 |
| Seminole County | 1,590 | 4,743 | 362 | 6,695 | R +46.9 |
| Jackson County | 1,560 | 4,784 | 348 | 6,692 | R +47.8 |
| Beckham County | 1,135 | 4,786 | 344 | 6,265 | R +57.9 |
| Woodward County | 975 | 4,824 | 351 | 6,150 | R +62.3 |
| Adair County | 1,062 | 4,520 | 363 | 5,945 | R +57.9 |
| Pawnee County | 1,139 | 4,050 | 390 | 5,579 | R +52.1 |
| Kingfisher County | 802 | 4,421 | 264 | 5,487 | R +65.5 |
| Marshall County | 1,053 | 3,774 | 254 | 5,081 | R +53.5 |
| Craig County | 999 | 3,629 | 321 | 4,949 | R +53.0 |
| Murray County | 954 | 3,538 | 271 | 4,763 | R +53.9 |
| Atoka County | 838 | 3,520 | 224 | 4,582 | R +58.2 |
| Choctaw County | 960 | 3,361 | 227 | 4,548 | R +52.5 |
| Texas County | 859 | 3,150 | 311 | 4,320 | R +52.5 |
| Noble County | 860 | 2,979 | 254 | 4,093 | R +51.3 |
| Hughes County | 780 | 2,964 | 223 | 3,967 | R +54.6 |
| Haskell County | 589 | 3,133 | 192 | 3,914 | R +64.5 |
| Washita County | 553 | 3,148 | 203 | 3,904 | R +66.1 |
| Pushmataha County | 605 | 2,934 | 210 | 3,749 | R +61.9 |
| Nowata County | 593 | 2,865 | 229 | 3,687 | R +61.4 |
| Johnston County | 735 | 2,458 | 196 | 3,389 | R +50.4 |
| Okfuskee County | 750 | 2,394 | 183 | 3,327 | R +49.1 |
| Latimer County | 657 | 2,452 | 191 | 3,300 | R +54.0 |
| Love County | 614 | 2,442 | 158 | 3,214 | R +56.2 |
| Blaine County | 575 | 2,410 | 173 | 3,158 | R +57.7 |
| Woods County | 618 | 2,317 | 188 | 3,123 | R +53.8 |
| Major County | 352 | 2,350 | 222 | 2,924 | R +68.0 |
| Kiowa County | 588 | 1,989 | 113 | 2,690 | R +51.6 |
| Tillman County | 440 | 1,520 | 96 | 2,056 | R +51.8 |
| Coal County | 362 | 1,564 | 123 | 2,049 | R +58.2 |
| Cotton County | 392 | 1,536 | 106 | 2,034 | R +55.3 |
| Alfalfa County | 297 | 1,494 | 126 | 1,917 | R +61.5 |
| Dewey County | 227 | 1,561 | 80 | 1,868 | R +70.6 |
| Jefferson County | 310 | 1,394 | 116 | 1,820 | R +58.9 |
| Beaver County | 204 | 1,480 | 111 | 1,795 | R +70.5 |
| Grant County | 257 | 1,381 | 96 | 1,734 | R +63.6 |
| Ellis County | 205 | 1,270 | 78 | 1,553 | R +67.5 |
| Greer County | 325 | 1,133 | 92 | 1,550 | R +51.3 |
| Roger Mills County | 193 | 1,171 | 67 | 1,431 | R +67.2 |
| Harper County | 164 | 1,006 | 63 | 1,233 | R +67.5 |
| Cimarron County | 99 | 685 | 44 | 828 | R +70.5 |
| Harmon County | 142 | 534 | 25 | 701 | R +53.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.