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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 state legislative forecast

North Dakota Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the North Dakota Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 24 of the 47 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 23 carry over until 2028; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 47On the ballot 24North Dakota HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
6 to 10
Median 8 · 24 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D0to R
After 2024: 4 D, 43 R
Environment
D +14.4
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

North Dakota Senate map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2, not up in 2026District 3: Democrats <1%District 4, not up in 2026District 5: Democrats <1%District 6, not up in 2026District 7: Democrats <1%District 8, not up in 2026District 9: Democrats >99%District 10, not up in 2026District 11: Democrats >99%District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats 28%District 14, not up in 2026District 15: Democrats <1%District 16, not up in 2026District 17: Democrats 13%District 18, not up in 2026District 19: Democrats <1%District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats >99%District 22, not up in 2026District 23: Democrats <1%District 24, not up in 2026District 25: Democrats <1%District 26, not up in 2026District 27: Democrats <1%District 28, not up in 2026District 29: Democrats <1%District 30, not up in 2026District 31: Democrats <1%District 32, not up in 2026District 33: Democrats <1%District 34, not up in 2026District 35: Democrats 27%District 36, not up in 2026District 37: Democrats <1%District 38, not up in 2026District 39: Democrats <1%District 40, not up in 2026District 41: Democrats 56%District 42, not up in 2026District 43: Democrats 92%District 44, not up in 2026District 45: Democrats 54%District 46, not up in 2026District 47: Democrats <1%1234568912141518192023242526282930313334363738394042
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 8 D to 39 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 9: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 43: Democrats win 92%District 41: Democrats win 56%District 45: Democrats win 54%District 13: Democrats win 28%District 35: Democrats win 27%District 17: Democrats win 13%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 39: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
24 for a majority313

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
45Ronald G Sorvaag 2022Dan Mitchell vs Ronald SorvaagR +18.7D +0.654%4,4204,3718,925Toss up
41Kyle Davison 2022Nyamal Dei vs Kyle DavisonR +17.9D +0.856%4,9324,8579,938Toss up
13Judy Lee 2022Landis Larson vs Judy LeeR +19.6R +4.028%4,4894,8619,492Lean R
35Sean Cleary 2022Dale Pittman vs Sean D. ClearyR +22.6R +4.127%4,9955,42010,574Lean R
17Jonathan L Sickler 2022Katie Benton vs Jonathan SicklerR +27.5R +7.713%4,3565,0839,583Likely R
43Jeff Barta 2022Mary K. Adams vs Jeff BartaR +11.9D +9.392%3,4742,8836,454Likely D

Projected North Dakota Senate vote

24 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats71,79733.7%
Republicans139,26065.3%
Independents and others2,1971.0%
Total213,253100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.