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2026 forecast · Mississippi Senate

Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored to win Mississippi's Senate seat.

Scott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith. The model has Hyde-Smith ahead by 5.1 points, winning 80 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean RModel R +5.1Polls R +3.5Updated October 22, 2026
Scott Colom
Democrat
46.8%
454,240 projected votes
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Republican
51.9%
503,888 projected votes
80%Hyde-Smith
20%Colom
Hyde-Smith favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Hyde-Smith wins about 80 of 100
RatingLean R80% chance for Hyde-Smith
Model marginR +5.1Polls R +3.5
80 percent rangeD +3.2 to R +12.92,000 simulations
Projected votes971,634Hyde-Smith 51.9%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Mississippi Senate by county

Adams CountyAlcorn CountyAmite CountyAttala CountyBenton CountyBolivar CountyCalhoun CountyCarroll CountyChickasaw CountyChoctaw CountyClaiborne CountyClarke CountyClay CountyCoahoma CountyCopiah CountyCovington CountyDeSoto CountyForrest CountyFranklin CountyGeorge CountyGreene CountyGrenada CountyHancock CountyHarrison CountyHinds CountyHolmes CountyHumphreys CountyIssaquena CountyItawamba CountyJackson CountyJasper CountyJefferson CountyJefferson Davis CountyJones CountyKemper CountyLafayette CountyLamar CountyLauderdale CountyLawrence CountyLeake CountyLee CountyLeflore CountyLincoln CountyLowndes CountyMadison CountyMarion CountyMarshall CountyMonroe CountyMontgomery CountyNeshoba CountyNewton CountyNoxubee CountyOktibbeha CountyPanola CountyPearl River CountyPerry CountyPike CountyPontotoc CountyPrentiss CountyQuitman CountyRankin CountyScott CountySharkey CountySimpson CountySmith CountyStone CountySunflower CountyTallahatchie CountyTate CountyTippah CountyTishomingo CountyTunica CountyUnion CountyWalthall CountyWarren CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWebster CountyWilkinson CountyWinston CountyYalobusha CountyYazoo CountyHindsHarrisonDeSotoRankinJacksonMadisonLeeForrestLauderdaleLamarJonesLowndes
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Hinds County: Colom +44,901Washington County: Colom +5,921Leflore County: Colom +4,457Holmes County: Colom +4,247Bolivar County: Colom +3,969Sunflower County: Colom +3,895Coahoma County: Colom +3,418Oktibbeha County: Colom +3,391Adams County: Colom +3,252Claiborne County: Colom +2,365Noxubee County: Colom +2,324Clay County: Colom +2,044Jefferson County: Colom +2,036Warren County: Colom +1,988Lowndes County: Colom +1,815Madison County: Colom +1,672Humphreys County: Colom +1,653Yazoo County: Colom +1,319Tunica County: Colom +1,239Kemper County: Colom +1,098Wilkinson County: Colom +1,097Jefferson Davis County: Colom +1,066Tallahatchie County: Colom +1,038Quitman County: Colom +995Marshall County: Colom +803Copiah County: Colom +741Pike County: Colom +739Sharkey County: Colom +656Chickasaw County: Colom +623Jasper County: Colom +373Panola County: Colom +93Issaquena County: Colom +84Montgomery County: Colom +14Rankin County: Hyde-Smith +16,440Jackson County: Hyde-Smith +9,260Pearl River County: Hyde-Smith +9,125Harrison County: Hyde-Smith +8,400Lamar County: Hyde-Smith +8,130DeSoto County: Hyde-Smith +7,792Jones County: Hyde-Smith +6,844Hancock County: Hyde-Smith +5,844Alcorn County: Hyde-Smith +5,355George County: Hyde-Smith +5,123Itawamba County: Hyde-Smith +4,966Pontotoc County: Hyde-Smith +4,793Union County: Hyde-Smith +4,618Lincoln County: Hyde-Smith +4,103Lee County: Hyde-Smith +4,001Tishomingo County: Hyde-Smith +3,659Neshoba County: Hyde-Smith +3,195Tippah County: Hyde-Smith +3,082Prentiss County: Hyde-Smith +3,071Smith County: Hyde-Smith +2,792Tate County: Hyde-Smith +2,684Stone County: Hyde-Smith +2,650Lauderdale County: Hyde-Smith +2,458Marion County: Hyde-Smith +2,440Greene County: Hyde-Smith +2,329Newton County: Hyde-Smith +2,276Webster County: Hyde-Smith +1,974Simpson County: Hyde-Smith +1,971Perry County: Hyde-Smith +1,858Wayne County: Hyde-Smith +1,492Calhoun County: Hyde-Smith +1,413Lawrence County: Hyde-Smith +1,376Monroe County: Hyde-Smith +1,366Clarke County: Hyde-Smith +1,330Covington County: Hyde-Smith +1,262Amite County: Hyde-Smith +1,106Carroll County: Hyde-Smith +1,052Franklin County: Hyde-Smith +863Choctaw County: Hyde-Smith +816Scott County: Hyde-Smith +781Forrest County: Hyde-Smith +749Walthall County: Hyde-Smith +681Leake County: Hyde-Smith +550Benton County: Hyde-Smith +370Yalobusha County: Hyde-Smith +339Attala County: Hyde-Smith +273Grenada County: Hyde-Smith +185Lafayette County: Hyde-Smith +133Winston County: Hyde-Smith +109
Colom +105,326 net votes from 33 countiesStatewide R +5.4, a 52,153 vote marginHyde-Smith +157,479 net votes from 49 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Scott ColomDemocrat · 20% to win
46.8%
Cindy Hyde-SmithRepublican · 80% to win
51.9%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

971,634 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Cindy Hyde-Smith R503,88851.9%
Scott Colom D454,24046.8%
Ty Pinkins I13,5061.4%
Total971,634100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +38.2: 1 simulationsD +36.3: 0 simulationsD +34.5: 0 simulationsD +32.7: 0 simulationsD +30.9: 0 simulationsD +29.0: 0 simulationsD +27.2: 0 simulationsD +25.4: 1 simulationsD +23.6: 0 simulationsD +21.7: 0 simulationsD +19.9: 2 simulationsD +18.1: 1 simulationsD +16.3: 1 simulationsD +14.4: 4 simulationsD +12.6: 4 simulationsD +10.8: 9 simulationsD +9.0: 16 simulationsD +7.1: 37 simulationsD +5.3: 58 simulationsD +3.5: 94 simulationsD +1.7: 104 simulationsR +0.2: 162 simulationsR +2.0: 201 simulationsR +3.8: 225 simulationsR +5.6: 241 simulationsR +7.5: 245 simulationsR +9.3: 195 simulationsR +11.1: 133 simulationsR +12.9: 115 simulationsR +14.8: 65 simulationsR +16.6: 40 simulationsR +18.4: 19 simulationsR +20.2: 12 simulationsR +22.1: 5 simulationsR +23.9: 5 simulationsR +25.7: 1 simulationsR +27.5: 0 simulationsR +29.4: 2 simulationsR +31.2: 0 simulationsR +33.0: 2 simulationsD +39.1R +33.9

80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.2 and R +12.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%20% Colom80% Hyde-Smith30 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Mississippi Senate polling average
36%37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%46%MayJunJulAug38.0Colom44.0Hyde-Smith
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Data for Progress (D)Aug 15 · 1,018 LV · C->99%Hyde-Smith +6.0

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageR +3.5
Data for Progress (D)1,018 LV61dR +6.038 to 44
Impact Research (D)Lean D500 LV186dR +3.039 to 42

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Hyde-Smith +5.1
Chance of winning
Scott Colom20%
Cindy Hyde-Smith80%
Simulated vote
Scott Colom46.8%
Cindy Hyde-Smith51.9%
Ty Pinkins1.4%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +23.1
FundamentalsR +8.8
With pollsR +5.0
Early vote turnoutR +0.1
With early voteR +5.1

Read from 29,647 ballots cast so far in Mississippi, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

34 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Scott Colom20
  • Bennie ThompsonU.S. Representative, MS-02source
  • 18 Mississippi state legislatorsstate legislatorssource
  • Barack ObamaFormer Presidentsource
  • Cory BookerU.S. Senator from New Jerseysource
  • Raphael WarnockU.S. Senator from Georgiasource
  • Angela AlsobrooksU.S. Senator from Marylandsource
  • Lisa Blunt RochesterU.S. Senator from Delawaresource
  • AFL-CIOlabor federationsource
Cindy Hyde-Smith14
  • Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
  • Roger WickerU.S. Senator from Mississippisource
  • Tate ReevesGovernor of Mississippisource
  • Delbert HosemannLieutenant Governor of Mississippisource
  • Lynn FitchMississippi Attorney Generalsource
  • Trent KellyU.S. Representative, MS-01source
  • Michael GuestU.S. Representative, MS-03source
  • Mike EzellU.S. Representative, MS-04source
Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +28R +28Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +23.1Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +8.8With pollsaverage R +3.5R +5.0With early voteturnout so farR +5.1

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareColomHyde-Smith
GenderMen48%42.256.4
Women52%49.948.7
Age18 to 2912%46.552.1
30 to 4420%45.553.1
45 to 6435%45.253.4
65+34%47.651.1
RaceWhite60%26.072.5
Black36%79.019.9
Latino2%46.551.9
Asian and other3%56.841.4
Race and genderWhite men28%21.377.2
White women31%30.268.3
Black men17%74.824.0
Black women19%82.716.1
All other races3%56.841.4

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

82 counties
CountyColomHyde-SmithOtherTotalMargin
Statewide452,944505,09713,593971,634R +5.4
Hinds County60,47915,57861476,671D +58.9
Harrison County25,07233,4721,37959,923R +14.0
DeSoto County23,71531,5071,06956,291R +13.8
Rankin County17,58134,02189352,495R +31.3
Jackson County16,25125,51180942,571R +21.8
Madison County21,58019,90841941,907D +3.7
Lee County10,79514,79633725,928R +15.4
Forrest County11,34212,09140523,838R +3.2
Lauderdale County9,70212,16024322,105R +11.3
Lamar County6,68114,81141621,908R +37.1
Jones County7,14413,98845321,585R +31.6
Lowndes County10,8599,04418020,083D +8.8
Lafayette County9,1209,25322318,596R +0.9
Pearl River County4,24913,37448918,112R +50.3
Oktibbeha County9,8796,48814916,516D +20.5
Hancock County4,74710,59139415,732R +37.2
Warren County8,5496,56113815,248D +12.8
Washington County9,4623,5419113,094D +45.5
Pike County6,6475,90814012,695D +5.7
Lincoln County4,0498,15212412,325R +33.2
Monroe County5,1646,53013011,824R +11.6
Marshall County5,9535,15012311,226D +7.2
Panola County5,5055,41211011,027D +0.7
Alcorn County2,5337,88815910,580R +50.7
Adams County6,7863,5349410,414D +31.2
Pontotoc County2,5807,37316210,115R +47.4
Bolivar County6,8552,886699,810D +40.3
Copiah County5,1164,375869,577D +7.7
Tate County3,3636,0471539,563R +28.1
Union County2,1776,7951749,146R +50.4
Simpson County3,4555,426898,970R +22.1
Leflore County6,4732,016608,549D +52.3
Marion County2,9875,4271118,525R +28.6
Neshoba County2,5775,7721188,467R +37.6
George County1,4996,6222268,347R +61.2
Itawamba County1,4076,3731197,899R +62.7
Grenada County3,7863,971787,835R +2.4
Scott County3,4734,254867,813R +9.9
Clay County4,8082,764537,625D +26.6
Yazoo County4,4003,081537,534D +17.6
Prentiss County2,1255,196967,417R +41.3
Sunflower County5,5751,680517,306D +53.5
Newton County2,4424,7181027,262R +31.3
Tippah County2,0275,1091097,245R +42.4
Wayne County2,7874,2791157,181R +20.8
Leake County3,1753,725706,970R +8.1
Winston County3,3043,413546,771R +1.7
Covington County2,6213,883996,603R +19.2
Tishomingo County1,2994,9581216,378R +57.3
Attala County2,9973,270636,330R +4.3
Stone County1,7254,3751306,230R +42.5
Coahoma County4,6671,249425,958D +57.4
Jasper County3,1092,736655,910D +6.4
Holmes County5,043796415,880D +72.2
Clarke County2,2113,541755,827R +22.8
Chickasaw County3,2002,577475,824D +10.6
Smith County1,3854,177795,641R +49.4
Amite County2,1593,265605,484R +20.0
Walthall County2,1422,823555,020R +13.4
Yalobusha County2,2642,603494,916R +6.7
Lawrence County1,6463,022434,711R +29.2
Calhoun County1,5692,982514,602R +30.6
Greene County1,0463,3751184,539R +51.3
Jefferson Davis County2,6681,602354,305D +24.7
Carroll County1,5822,634514,267R +24.5
Perry County1,1493,007934,249R +43.5
Tallahatchie County2,5811,543374,161D +24.6
Webster County9322,906503,888R +50.4
Noxubee County3,067743273,837D +60.5
Montgomery County1,8051,791483,644D +0.6
Kemper County2,1721,074233,269D +33.6
Franklin County1,1852,048333,266R +26.3
Humphreys County2,403750223,175D +51.8
Claiborne County2,743378223,143D +74.8
Choctaw County1,1091,925443,078R +25.9
Jefferson County2,414378202,812D +72.3
Benton County1,1921,562392,793R +13.2
Wilkinson County1,928831342,793D +39.4
Tunica County1,782543242,349D +52.5
Quitman County1,542547252,114D +47.2
Sharkey County1,05539991,463D +44.6
Issaquena County3172334554D +14.5

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.