2026 state legislative forecast
Kansas House forecast
Republicans win control of the Kansas House in 95% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 125 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 7 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
5%D95%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
50 to 61Median 56 ยท 63 for a majority
Favored to flip
20to D0to R
After 2024: 37 D, 88 R
Environment
D +13.4Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Kansas House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 56 D to 69 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Chip Vanhouden 2024 | Laura Johnson vs Chip VanHouden | R +13.9 | R +0.5 | 49% | 6,047 | 6,109 | 12,341 | Toss up |
| 27 | Sean E Tarwater Sr 2024 | Sara Kiewiet vs Sean E. Tarwater | R +9.9 | R +0.5 | 47% | 6,397 | 6,463 | 13,056 | Toss up |
| 65 | Shawn Chauncey 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +15.0 | R +1.2 | 42% | 2,567 | 2,628 | 5,274 | Toss up |
| 85 | Patrick A Penn 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +8.3 | D +1.4 | 59% | 5,121 | 4,980 | 10,255 | Toss up |
| 40 | David Buehler 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +11.9 | D +1.5 | 58% | 4,113 | 3,993 | 8,230 | Toss up |
| 41 | Pat Proctor 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +17.3 | D +2.2 | 61% | 2,721 | 2,604 | 5,406 | Lean D |
| 102 | Kyler Sweely 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +18.3 | D +2.2 | 63% | 3,096 | 2,964 | 6,152 | Lean D |
| 117 | Adam Turk 2024 | Brandon Holland vs Adam Turk | R +6.7 | D +2.5 | 66% | 6,437 | 6,118 | 12,746 | Lean D |
| 105 | Jill Ann Ward 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +14.0 | R +2.7 | 34% | 3,724 | 3,931 | 7,772 | Lean R |
| 60 | Mark Schreiber 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +2.7 | D +4.0 | 74% | 3,756 | 3,466 | 7,332 | Lean D |
| 3 | Chuck Smith 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +14.7 | R +4.3 | 25% | 3,454 | 3,764 | 7,328 | Lean R |
| 33 | Mike Thompson 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +4.6 | D +4.4 | 75% | 4,083 | 3,737 | 7,939 | Lean D |
| 96 | Tom Kessler 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +7.7 | D +4.6 | 76% | 2,598 | 2,371 | 5,046 | Lean D |
| 8 | Chris Croft 2024 | Megan Phillips vs Chris Croft | R +6.2 | D +5.1 | 78% | 5,758 | 5,201 | 11,126 | Lean D |
| 121 | John Resman 2024 | Kelsey Stock vs Thomas Palenske | R +4.4 | D +5.8 | 81% | 5,504 | 4,906 | 10,568 | Lean D |
| 52 | Jesse Borjon 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +2.6 | D +6.5 | 84% | 6,082 | 5,345 | 11,601 | Likely D |
| 87 | Susan Oliver Estes 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +4.6 | D +6.8 | 85% | 5,069 | 4,421 | 9,634 | Likely D |
| 100 | Daniel Hawkins 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +20.2 | R +7.8 | 12% | 4,778 | 5,581 | 10,518 | Likely R |
| 78 | Robyn R Essex 2024 | Tim Lundberg vs Robyn R. Essex | R +1.8 | D +8.1 | 88% | 5,753 | 4,891 | 10,806 | Likely D |
| 97 | Nick Hoheisel 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +22.5 | R +9.6 | 7% | 3,345 | 4,058 | 7,515 | Likely R |
| 43 | Bill Sutton 2024 | Kristen Schultz vs William (Bill) Sutton | R +23.7 | R +10.7 | 6% | 4,077 | 5,050 | 9,265 | Likely R |
| 119 | Jason W Goetz 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +23.8 | R +10.8 | 4% | 1,566 | 1,943 | 3,563 | Likely R |
| 99 | Susan Humphries 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +24.7 | R +11.7 | 3% | 4,594 | 5,809 | 10,562 | Likely R |
| 39 | Angela Stiens 2024 | Zach Maier vs Angela Stiens | R +0.2 | D +11.7 | 96% | 6,208 | 4,906 | 11,284 | Likely D |
Projected Kansas House vote
125 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 549,557 | 49.8% |
| Republicans | 539,402 | 48.9% |
| Independents and others | 15,059 | 1.4% |
| Total | 1,104,037 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.