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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 ballot measure forecast

Arkansas Issue 3

Economic development districts and public loans

Lets the General Assembly create economic development districts and fund programs, loans and grants of public money, including district bonds for industrial, headquarters or sports projects. The forecast has Yes at 46.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 23% chance to pass.

Likely to failConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOther taxesUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
23%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
46.1%
80% range 40 to 52
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
41.6%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
59.9% Yes
Polls
41.6% Yes
Forecast
46.1% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
The campaign

No organized support or opposition or money reported.

Also on the Arkansas ballot

Issue 1
Only U.S. citizens may vote
>99%
Issue 2
Right to bear arms shall not be infringed
>99%
Issue 4
$500 million water infrastructure bonds
>99%

Issue 3 by county

Cross CountyIzard CountyCleveland CountyPope CountyVan Buren CountyDrew CountySaline CountyLittle River CountyWashington CountyPulaski CountyLonoke CountyConway CountyMontgomery CountyCleburne CountySearcy CountyMonroe CountyPoinsett CountyBenton CountyMississippi CountyFulton CountyScott CountyHoward CountyWoodruff CountyLogan CountyNevada CountyPike CountyBradley CountyIndependence CountyJackson CountyJefferson CountyLawrence CountyPrairie CountyPerry CountyPolk CountyCarroll CountyPhillips CountyAshley CountyChicot CountyBoone CountyCrawford CountyMadison CountyFranklin CountyHot Spring CountySharp CountyLafayette CountyBaxter CountyCalhoun CountyRandolph CountyWhite CountyClay CountyLee CountySt. Francis CountyColumbia CountyOuachita CountyCraighead CountyDallas CountyFaulkner CountySebastian CountyHempstead CountyYell CountyClark CountyGarland CountySevier CountyStone CountyJohnson CountyGreene CountyCrittenden CountyLincoln CountyMarion CountyGrant CountyArkansas CountyDesha CountyUnion CountyMiller CountyNewton CountyPulaskiBentonWashingtonSalineFaulknerSebastianGarlandCraigheadWhiteLonokePopeCrawford
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Pulaski County: No +9,825Benton County: No +7,413Washington County: No +5,894Saline County: No +3,427Faulkner County: No +3,273Sebastian County: No +2,774Garland County: No +2,605Craighead County: No +2,308White County: No +1,857Lonoke County: No +1,806Pope County: No +1,456Crawford County: No +1,427Jefferson County: No +1,368Baxter County: No +1,245Boone County: No +1,011Greene County: No +960Miller County: No +936Union County: No +918Crittenden County: No +875Independence County: No +853Cleburne County: No +776Hot Spring County: No +773Carroll County: No +704Mississippi County: No +676Johnson County: No +554Ouachita County: No +531Conway County: No +525Polk County: No +520Logan County: No +500Grant County: No +495Columbia County: No +489Clark County: No +488Marion County: No +472Van Buren County: No +472Sharp County: No +461Madison County: No +448Poinsett County: No +442Ashley County: No +425Franklin County: No +420Randolph County: No +411Yell County: No +410Drew County: No +405Cross County: No +391St. Francis County: No +391Hempstead County: No +378Stone County: No +378Izard County: No +365Lawrence County: No +360Arkansas County: No +347Jackson County: No +319Phillips County: No +317Clay County: No +314Fulton County: No +310Little River County: No +300Sevier County: No +288Perry County: No +284Howard County: No +279Pike County: No +279Searcy County: No +238Montgomery County: No +237Chicot County: No +233Newton County: No +231Lincoln County: No +227Desha County: No +225Scott County: No +221Cleveland County: No +212Prairie County: No +204Bradley County: No +201Nevada County: No +185Lee County: No +161Monroe County: No +157Woodruff County: No +150Dallas County: No +149Lafayette County: No +147Calhoun County: No +127
Yes +0 net votes from 0 countiesStatewide No +7.8, a 72,233 vote marginNo +72,233 net votes from 75 counties

Projected vote

924,329 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes426,04846.1%
No498,28153.9%
Total924,329100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Pulaski County57,94767,772125,71946.1%
Benton County43,72451,13794,86146.1%
Washington County34,76740,66175,42846.1%
Saline County20,21023,63743,84746.1%
Faulkner County19,30122,57441,87546.1%
Sebastian County16,36419,13835,50246.1%
Garland County15,36317,96833,33146.1%
Craighead County13,61415,92229,53646.1%
White County10,95012,80723,75746.1%
Lonoke County10,65012,45623,10646.1%
Pope County8,58410,04018,62446.1%
Crawford County8,4219,84818,26946.1%
Jefferson County8,0699,43717,50646.1%
Baxter County7,3428,58715,92946.1%
Boone County5,9626,97312,93546.1%
Greene County5,6636,62312,28646.1%
Miller County5,5196,45511,97446.1%
Union County5,4116,32911,74046.1%
Crittenden County5,1586,03311,19146.1%
Independence County5,0315,88410,91546.1%
Cleburne County4,5775,3539,93046.1%
Hot Spring County4,5615,3349,89546.1%
Carroll County4,1534,8579,01046.1%
Mississippi County3,9914,6678,65846.1%
Johnson County3,2703,8247,09446.1%
Ouachita County3,1333,6646,79746.1%
Conway County3,0983,6236,72146.1%
Polk County3,0683,5886,65646.1%
Logan County2,9463,4466,39246.1%
Grant County2,9193,4146,33346.1%
Columbia County2,8843,3736,25746.1%
Clark County2,8783,3666,24446.1%
Marion County2,7863,2586,04446.1%
Van Buren County2,7823,2546,03646.1%
Sharp County2,7213,1825,90346.1%
Madison County2,6453,0935,73846.1%
Poinsett County2,6083,0505,65846.1%
Ashley County2,5092,9345,44346.1%
Franklin County2,4782,8985,37646.1%
Randolph County2,4242,8355,25946.1%
Yell County2,4162,8265,24246.1%
Drew County2,3892,7945,18346.1%
St. Francis County2,3122,7035,01546.1%
Cross County2,3082,6995,00746.1%
Stone County2,2342,6124,84646.1%
Hempstead County2,2302,6084,83846.1%
Izard County2,1532,5184,67146.1%
Lawrence County2,1242,4844,60846.1%
Arkansas County2,0512,3984,44946.1%
Jackson County1,8822,2014,08346.1%
Phillips County1,8682,1854,05346.1%
Clay County1,8542,1684,02246.1%
Fulton County1,8332,1433,97646.1%
Little River County1,7682,0683,83646.1%
Sevier County1,7021,9903,69246.1%
Perry County1,6721,9563,62846.1%
Pike County1,6441,9233,56746.1%
Howard County1,6431,9223,56546.1%
Searcy County1,4071,6453,05246.1%
Montgomery County1,3931,6303,02346.1%
Chicot County1,3741,6072,98146.1%
Newton County1,3601,5912,95146.1%
Lincoln County1,3391,5662,90546.1%
Desha County1,3221,5472,86946.1%
Scott County1,3031,5242,82746.1%
Cleveland County1,2531,4652,71846.1%
Prairie County1,2081,4122,62046.1%
Bradley County1,1841,3852,56946.1%
Nevada County1,0891,2742,36346.1%
Lee County9521,1132,06546.1%
Monroe County9271,0842,01146.1%
Dallas County8821,0311,91346.1%
Woodruff County8811,0311,91246.1%
Lafayette County8641,0111,87546.1%
Calhoun County7468731,61946.1%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll709 LV2026-10-1327383538.7%
Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll1,217 LV2026-08-1237253849.7%
How this is built
Issue 3 is forecast as a other taxes measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arkansas's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: axios.com, theballotbrief.com, talkbusiness.net, uaex.uada.edu. All measures.