2026 forecast · North Carolina Senate

Roy Cooper is all but certain to win North Carolina's Senate seat.

Roy Cooper vs Michael Whatley, an open seat. The model has Cooper ahead by 12.6 points, winning 99 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +12.6Polls D +12.8Updated October 22, 2026

Roy Cooper

Democrat

55.0%

2,432,249 projected votes

Michael Whatley

Republican

42.3%

1,872,819 projected votes

99%Cooper

1%Whatley

Cooper all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Cooper wins about 99 of 100

RatingSafe D99% chance for Cooper

Model marginD +12.6Polls D +12.8

80 percent rangeD +18.5 to D +6.72,000 simulations

Projected votes4,424,985Cooper 55.0%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

North Carolina Senate by county

D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Cooper +908,627 net votes from 45 countiesStatewide D +12.6, a 557,139 vote marginWhatley +351,488 net votes from 55 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected statewide vote

4,424,985 votes

Candidate	Votes	Share
Roy Cooper D	2,432,249	55.0%
Michael Whatley R	1,872,819	42.3%
Shannon Bray L	76,110	1.7%
Michael Dublin G	43,365	1.0%
Total	4,424,985	100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.5 and D +6.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The North Carolina Senate polling average

Size dots by weight

The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

Trafalgar Group (R)Oct 10 · 1,091 LV · A- · R lean, counted Cooper +11.8 in the average16%Cooper +8.0

Big Data PollSep 29 · 642 LV · Gold16%Cooper +12.3

East Carolina UniversityOct 3 · 810 LV · A-16%Cooper +7.0

Quantus InsightsSep 22 · 686 LV · Gold14%Cooper +5.1

InsiderAdvantage (R)Sep 17 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, counted Cooper +9.6 in the average13%Cooper +5.0

WRAL/SurveyUSAOct 11 · 650 LV · C+5.7%Cooper +14.0

Every other poll together: 20%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
On Point average	LOWESS Election Day projection		D +12.8
ActiVote	400 LV	0d	D +13.856.9 to 43.1
WRAL/SurveyUSA	700 LV	4d	D +13.4
Trafalgar Group (R)Lean R	1,091 LV	5d	D +8.049 to 41
Elon University/YouGov	600 LV	7d	D +13.052 to 39
Change Research for Forward Carolina (D)	900 LV	8d	D +8.4
East Carolina University	810 LV	12d	D +7.050 to 43
Big Data Poll	642 LV	16d	D +12.350.8 to 38.5
Quantus Insights	686 LV	23d	D +5.148.4 to 43.3
Rasmussen Reports	1,047 LV	23d	D +7.048 to 41
AARP (Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research)	1,115 LV	25d	D +11.053 to 42
Opinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North Carolina	857 LV	25d	D +8.052 to 44
YouGov	3,745 LV	27d	D +12.053 to 41
InsiderAdvantage (R)Lean R	1,200 LV	28d	D +5.048 to 43
High Point University	706 LV	29d	D +8.050 to 42
Catawba College/YouGov	885 LV	30d	D +12.047 to 35
Harper Polling (R)	608 LV	30d	D +15.049 to 34
The Trafalgar Group (R)Lean R	1,084 LV	35d	D +6.048 to 42
East Carolina University	675 LV	42d	D +7.549 to 41.5
Elon University/YouGov	565 LV	45d	D +11.049 to 38
High Point University/YouGov	660 LV	64d	D +5.050 to 45
Harper Polling (R)	600 LV	66d	D +13.052 to 39
Change Research (D)	915 LV	70d	D +7.050 to 43
Change Research (D)	967 RV	75d	D +9.050 to 41
Elon University/YouGov	466 LV	76d	D +11.053 to 42
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)	1,005 RV	80d	D +9.053 to 44

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin

Cooper +12.6

Chance of winning

Roy Cooper99%

Michael Whatley1%

Simulated vote

Roy Cooper55.0%

Michael Whatley42.3%

Shannon Bray1.7%

Michael Dublin1.0%

How the model gets there

Partisan leanR +3.3

FundamentalsD +13.0

With pollsD +12.2

Early vote turnoutD +0.4

With early voteD +12.6

Read from 928,073 ballots cast so far in North Carolina, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

35 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Roy Cooper24

Wiley NickelFormer U.S. Rep., NC-13source
Wes MooreGovernor of Marylandsource
Kamala HarrisFormer Vice Presidentsource
Chuck SchumerSenate Minority Leadersource
Kirsten GillibrandU.S. Senator, NY; DSCC chairsource
Josh SteinGovernor of North Carolinasource
Jeff JacksonNC Attorney Generalsource
Deborah RossU.S. Rep., NC-02source

Michael Whatley11

Donald Trumpsource
JD VanceVice Presidentsource
John ThuneSenate Majority Leadersource
Tim ScottU.S. Senator, SC; NRSC chairsource
Lara TrumpFormer RNC co-chairsource
Republican National CommitteeNational partysource
Republican Jewish CoalitionJewish Republican organizationsource
North Carolina Police Benevolent AssociationPolice unionsource

On the air

Harry Enten: Highlighted Roy Cooper leading by 9 points in North Carolina, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. source

Harry Enten: Said North Carolina, with Democrats up 7, was the only Senate seat Democrats could count on, arguing the math was not there for a majority. source

Karl Rove: Agreed Democrats will flip the North Carolina seat. source

Nate Silver: His Silver Bulletin forecast gave Roy Cooper a 95.3% chance to beat Michael Whatley. source

Nate Silver: His forecast gave Roy Cooper a 90% chance of defeating Michael Whatley. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Cooper	Whatley
GenderMen	47%	49.8	47.5
Women	53%	57.7	39.6
Age18 to 29	14%	56.8	40.4
30 to 44	21%	53.6	43.7
45 to 64	32%	53.4	43.8
65+	33%	53.7	43.7
RaceWhite	69%	43.0	54.3
Black	20%	84.7	12.8
Latino	5%	62.3	35.0
Asian and other	6%	72.3	24.6
Race and genderWhite men	32%	37.2	60.1
White women	38%	47.8	49.4
Black men	10%	81.3	16.2
Black women	11%	87.9	9.6
Latino men	2%	61.9	35.4
Latino women	3%	62.7	34.6
All other races	6%	72.3	24.6

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

100 counties

County	Cooper	Whatley	Other	Total	Margin
Statewide	2,430,853	1,873,714	120,418	4,424,985	D +12.6
Wake County	361,700	148,873	13,092	523,665	D +40.6
Mecklenburg County	321,442	111,954	11,569	444,965	D +47.0
Guilford County	149,359	68,943	5,139	223,441	D +35.9
Forsyth County	99,866	55,369	3,981	159,216	D +27.8
Durham County	129,375	20,067	2,894	152,336	D +71.8
Buncombe County	90,893	38,958	3,741	133,592	D +38.8
New Hanover County	59,024	46,608	3,718	109,350	D +11.2
Cumberland County	68,912	36,631	3,152	108,695	D +29.5
Union County	43,992	56,492	2,682	103,166	R +12.3
Johnston County	36,908	51,190	2,819	90,917	R +15.9
Cabarrus County	45,448	41,446	2,873	89,767	D +4.4
Gaston County	35,095	50,864	2,659	88,618	R +17.9
Brunswick County	34,274	45,749	2,645	82,668	R +14.1
Iredell County	31,072	47,658	2,856	81,586	R +20.6
Orange County	60,970	12,639	1,426	75,035	D +64.4
Alamance County	34,771	33,295	1,746	69,812	D +1.9
Davidson County	23,132	44,445	1,947	69,524	R +30.8
Pitt County	39,643	26,206	1,550	67,399	D +19.7
Catawba County	24,667	38,225	2,079	64,971	R +21.1
Onslow County	24,169	33,876	2,418	60,463	R +16.4
Rowan County	20,640	34,229	1,990	56,859	R +24.0
Randolph County	15,310	39,761	1,704	56,775	R +43.3
Henderson County	27,398	27,526	1,466	56,390	R +0.3
Moore County	20,516	26,619	1,258	48,393	R +12.9
Harnett County	19,983	24,955	1,438	46,376	R +11.0
Craven County	19,400	22,599	1,210	43,209	R +7.5
Wayne County	20,894	20,420	1,059	42,373	D +0.9
Chatham County	26,178	15,146	887	42,211	D +25.9
Lincoln County	13,479	26,748	1,287	41,514	R +32.2
Nash County	22,954	17,319	822	41,095	D +13.5
Cleveland County	16,097	21,727	1,049	38,873	R +14.6
Rockingham County	15,702	20,793	1,207	37,702	R +13.6
Carteret County	12,530	22,429	1,044	36,003	R +27.6
Burke County	13,489	20,321	1,190	35,000	R +19.7
Robeson County	17,211	16,103	714	34,028	D +3.2
Caldwell County	11,640	19,660	1,203	32,503	R +24.9
Franklin County	16,159	14,713	988	31,860	D +4.5
Wilson County	17,523	12,588	614	30,725	D +15.8
Haywood County	13,497	15,327	953	29,777	R +6.2
Surry County	9,061	18,689	858	28,608	R +33.9
Pender County	10,786	16,227	1,009	28,022	R +19.6
Wilkes County	6,911	20,242	869	28,022	R +47.5
Stanly County	7,106	19,295	986	27,387	R +44.6
Rutherford County	9,971	16,103	779	26,853	R +23.0
Watauga County	15,996	9,859	828	26,683	D +22.9
Granville County	13,744	10,878	631	25,253	D +11.3
Lee County	11,205	10,838	705	22,748	D +1.6
Lenoir County	11,116	9,859	450	21,425	D +5.5
Sampson County	8,751	11,970	466	21,187	R +15.4
Beaufort County	8,552	11,764	650	20,966	R +15.5
Columbus County	9,549	10,783	608	20,940	R +6.1
Stokes County	6,414	13,471	742	20,627	R +34.3
Davie County	6,147	13,625	611	20,383	R +37.0
Dare County	9,081	10,113	452	19,646	R +5.3
Edgecombe County	13,497	4,930	337	18,764	D +45.5
Halifax County	12,908	5,436	318	18,662	D +40.0
McDowell County	5,846	11,708	599	18,153	R +32.4
Jackson County	9,057	7,918	579	17,554	D +6.4
Duplin County	8,060	9,079	403	17,542	R +6.1
Macon County	6,302	10,637	542	17,481	R +24.9
Transylvania County	8,920	7,972	523	17,415	D +5.4
Person County	8,010	8,693	482	17,185	R +4.2
Hoke County	10,485	5,841	540	16,866	D +27.3
Alexander County	4,242	11,609	609	16,460	R +44.9
Pasquotank County	8,748	7,176	325	16,249	D +9.8
Yadkin County	3,338	11,947	489	15,774	R +54.6
Vance County	10,371	4,808	310	15,489	D +35.8
Richmond County	7,580	6,971	465	15,016	D +3.9
Cherokee County	3,499	9,999	346	13,844	R +47.0
Currituck County	4,014	9,024	362	13,400	R +37.5
Bladen County	6,660	6,145	369	13,174	D +3.8
Ashe County	4,345	8,201	442	12,988	R +29.8
Scotland County	6,459	4,744	252	11,455	D +14.7
Madison County	5,165	5,452	351	10,968	R +2.6
Polk County	4,612	5,601	262	10,475	R +9.6
Montgomery County	4,157	5,608	313	10,078	R +14.6
Martin County	5,481	3,903	201	9,585	D +16.3
Yancey County	3,998	5,102	243	9,343	R +11.8
Caswell County	4,704	4,413	196	9,313	D +2.9
Anson County	5,194	3,008	176	8,378	D +26.0
Warren County	5,775	2,233	139	8,147	D +43.3
Hertford County	5,780	1,847	108	7,735	D +50.7
Avery County	2,223	5,249	223	7,695	R +39.5
Northampton County	5,340	2,077	121	7,538	D +43.1
Bertie County	5,142	2,097	118	7,357	D +41.2
Mitchell County	1,925	5,050	179	7,154	R +43.8
Greene County	3,589	3,142	137	6,868	D +6.3
Pamlico County	2,735	3,646	164	6,545	R +14.1
Chowan County	2,989	3,016	104	6,109	R +0.8
Clay County	1,706	4,260	140	6,106	R +41.8
Perquimans County	2,265	3,701	103	6,069	R +23.6
Swain County	2,684	2,559	236	5,479	D +2.1
Alleghany County	1,584	3,556	220	5,360	R +36.8
Camden County	1,553	3,121	120	4,794	R +32.7
Washington County	2,978	1,569	112	4,659	D +30.1
Gates County	2,370	2,189	88	4,647	D +3.8
Jones County	1,995	2,160	137	4,292	R +4.0
Graham County	1,113	2,589	135	3,837	R +38.2
Hyde County	1,039	883	49	1,971	D +8.3
Tyrrell County	714	658	38	1,410	D +4.2

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology

Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.