2026 ballot measure forecast
Vermont Proposal 3
Constitutional right to collective bargaining
Adds a constitutional right for employees to organize and bargain collectively, barring laws that interfere with it, effectively banning right-to-work laws. The forecast has Yes at 71.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
71.5%80% range 65 to 77
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
69.3%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 75.4% Yes
- Polls
- 69.3% Yes
- Forecast
- 71.5% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority.
The campaign
Yes on 3 (Rep. Conor Casey) and Vermont AFL-CIO support; Right for Vermont Foundation opposes; no money totals reported.
Also on the Vermont ballot
Proposal 4
Constitutional equal protection guarantee
>99%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +132,883 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +42.9, a 132,883 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
309,467 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 221,175 | 71.5% |
| No | 88,292 | 28.5% |
| Total | 309,467 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden County | 64,630 | 18,538 | 83,168 | 77.7% |
| Washington County | 22,233 | 7,532 | 29,765 | 74.7% |
| Windsor County | 20,736 | 7,909 | 28,645 | 72.4% |
| Rutland County | 18,062 | 10,240 | 28,302 | 63.8% |
| Windham County | 16,314 | 5,585 | 21,899 | 74.5% |
| Franklin County | 13,759 | 8,025 | 21,784 | 63.2% |
| Addison County | 13,792 | 5,236 | 19,028 | 72.5% |
| Bennington County | 11,846 | 5,404 | 17,250 | 68.7% |
| Orange County | 9,985 | 4,683 | 14,668 | 68.1% |
| Caledonia County | 9,128 | 4,728 | 13,856 | 65.9% |
| Lamoille County | 8,961 | 3,404 | 12,365 | 72.5% |
| Orleans County | 7,422 | 4,578 | 12,000 | 61.9% |
| Grand Isle County | 2,764 | 1,284 | 4,048 | 68.3% |
| Essex County | 1,543 | 1,146 | 2,689 | 57.4% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll) | 835 LV | 2026-09-21 | 65 | 22 | 13 | 69.3% |
| Jim Eltringham · for the No side | 600 | 27 | 55 | 37.0% |
How this is built
Proposal 3 is forecast as a labor measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Vermont's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wcax.com, vtdigger.org, sevendaysvt.com. All measures.