2026 forecast · Ohio Governor

Amy Acton is favored to win Ohio's governorship.

Amy Acton vs Vivek Ramaswamy, an open seat. The model has Acton ahead by 4.2 points, winning 78 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean DModel D +4.2Polls D +4.2Updated October 22, 2026

Amy Acton

Democrat

50.7%

2,421,019 projected votes

Vivek Ramaswamy

Republican

46.5%

2,222,553 projected votes

78%Acton

22%Ramaswamy

Acton favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Acton wins about 78 of 100

RatingLean D78% chance for Acton

Model marginD +4.2Polls D +4.2

80 percent rangeD +11.0 to R +2.52,000 simulations

Projected votes4,778,813Acton 50.7%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Ohio Governor by county

D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Acton +718,764 net votes from 13 countiesStatewide D +3.9, a 184,570 vote marginRamaswamy +534,194 net votes from 75 counties

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Projected statewide vote

4,778,813 votes

Candidate	Votes	Share
Amy Acton D	2,421,019	50.7%
Vivek Ramaswamy R	2,222,553	46.5%
Don Kissick L	135,240	2.8%
Total	4,778,813	100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between D +11.0 and R +2.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Ohio governor polling average

Size dots by weight

The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

New York Times/SienaOct 1 · 616 LV · Gold16%Acton +4.0

New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold16%Acton +4.0

On Point PollingOct 17 · 635 LV · Gold15%Acton +4.8

Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 · 1,592 LV · A++14%Acton +2.0

Big Data PollSep 27 · 682 LV · Gold14%Ramaswamy +1.1

Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River StrategiesOct 13 · 959 LV · NR8.6%Acton +5.0

Every other poll together: 16%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
On Point average	LOWESS Election Day projection		D +4.2
On Point Polling	635 LV	0d	D +4.8
Marist University	883 LV	0d	D +4.9
ActiVote	400 LV	0d	R +2.8
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company	1,592 LV	0d	D +1.7
Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies	959 LV	2d	D +5.0
Bowling Green State University/YouGov	1,000 LV	6d	D +5.1
co/efficient (R)	925 LV	9d	D +1.8
CNN/SSRS	760 LV	10d	D +6.9
New York Times/Siena	616 LV	14d	D +3.3
YouGov	3,780 LV	15d	D +3.2
Big Data Poll (R)	680 LV	18d	D +0.4
Big Data Poll	682 LV	18d	R +1.6
NPR/Marist	1,298 RV	18d	D +3.6
Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network	500 LV	18d	D +7.3
Bowling Green State University/YouGov	1,000 LV	35d	D +2.2
Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan	1,008 RV	66d	R +2.5
Tulchin Research (D)	600 LV	72d	D +0.8
New York Times/Siena	601 LV	109d	R +0.7
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan	800 LV	121d	D +2.4
Tulchin Research (D)	600 LV	133d	D +1.7
Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan	1,015 RV	136d	D +0.5
Data Targeting	603 LV	311d	R +2.0
Emerson College	850 RV	311d	D +1.6
Bowling Green State University/YouGov	800 RV	366d	R +4.1
Hart Research	800 LV	388d	D +1.4

Model margin

Acton +4.2

Chance of winning

Amy Acton78%

Vivek Ramaswamy22%

Simulated vote

Amy Acton50.7%

Vivek Ramaswamy46.5%

Don Kissick2.8%

How the model gets there

Partisan leanR +11.3

FundamentalsR +1.2

With pollsD +4.1

Early vote turnoutD +0.1

With early voteD +4.2

Read from 719,262 ballots cast so far in Ohio, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker

Who has endorsed

98 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Amy Acton40

Barack ObamaFormer Presidentsource
Pete ButtigiegFormer U.S. Transportation Secretarysource
Sherrod BrownFormer U.S. Senator, 2026 Senate nomineesource
Ted StricklandFormer Ohio Governorsource
Dick CelesteFormer Ohio Governorsource
Jim PetroFormer Ohio Attorney General (Republican)source
John PattersonFormer Ohio executive director, Farm Service Agencysource
Ed FeighanFormer U.S. representative, OH-19source

Vivek Ramaswamy58

Donald Trumpsource
Rob PortmanFormer U.S. Senatorsource
Bob TaftFormer Ohio Governorsource
Mike DeWineGovernor of Ohiosource
JD VanceVice Presidentsource
Bernie MorenoU.S. Senatorsource
Jon HustedU.S. Senatorsource
Jim JordanU.S. Representative OH-4source

On the air

Harry Enten: Said the Ohio governor race has flipped to Amy Acton, up 4, and called Ramaswamy's standing with independents the worst this century. source

Larry Sabato: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Ohio governor race from Leans Republican to Toss-up. source

Meet the Press NOW hosts: Interviewed Amy Acton as she condemned the ad featuring her estranged mother. source

Scott Jennings: Called Ramaswamy's ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother indefensible and predicted it will blow up in their face. source

Scott Jennings: On NewsNight called the Ramaswamy ad risky and said launching it late was not reassuring for the campaign. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Acton	Ramaswamy
GenderMen	47%	46.3	50.9
Women	54%	54.0	43.2
Age18 to 29	13%	55.2	41.9
30 to 44	22%	50.7	46.4
45 to 64	32%	48.0	49.2
65+	33%	50.7	46.5
RaceWhite	82%	43.4	53.8
Black	11%	88.4	8.9
Latino	3%	66.3	30.9
Asian and other	5%	74.5	22.2
Race and genderWhite men	38%	38.0	59.2
White women	44%	47.9	49.2
Black men	5%	87.4	9.9
Black women	6%	89.3	8.0
Latino men	1%	63.7	33.6
Latino women	1%	69.0	28.2
All other races	5%	74.5	22.2

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

88 counties

County	Acton	Ramaswamy	Other	Total	Margin
Statewide	2,414,291	2,229,721	134,801	4,778,813	D +3.9
Franklin County	366,810	131,303	13,823	511,936	D +46.1
Cuyahoga County	358,402	126,170	13,446	498,018	D +46.8
Hamilton County	219,602	122,419	9,491	351,512	D +27.7
Summit County	139,468	82,718	6,636	228,822	D +24.8
Montgomery County	116,976	92,453	5,370	214,799	D +11.4
Lucas County	98,370	55,986	5,103	159,459	D +26.5
Stark County	69,064	78,103	4,551	151,718	R +6.0
Butler County	62,331	84,934	3,622	150,887	R +15.1
Lorain County	67,007	58,276	3,742	129,025	D +6.8
Warren County	44,299	67,517	2,632	114,448	R +20.3
Delaware County	54,816	53,266	2,318	110,400	D +1.4
Lake County	48,523	54,200	2,850	105,573	R +5.4
Mahoning County	50,824	42,024	2,479	95,327	D +9.2
Clermont County	31,766	57,321	2,755	91,842	R +27.7
Medina County	38,235	46,009	2,605	86,849	R +9.0
Trumbull County	39,133	39,287	2,259	80,679	R +0.2
Licking County	30,944	42,980	2,052	75,976	R +16.0
Greene County	31,830	41,646	2,039	75,515	R +12.9
Portage County	34,341	32,232	2,630	69,203	D +3.0
Fairfield County	29,405	36,994	1,702	68,101	R +11.3
Wood County	27,159	26,755	1,840	55,754	D +0.8
Clark County	22,409	26,920	1,369	50,698	R +8.9
Richland County	15,688	30,603	1,382	47,673	R +31.2
Miami County	14,704	31,281	1,325	47,310	R +35.2
Geauga County	19,331	25,526	1,388	46,245	R +13.4
Wayne County	16,202	25,759	1,477	43,438	R +22.1
Columbiana County	12,699	25,208	1,213	39,120	R +32.0
Allen County	11,942	24,477	934	37,353	R +33.6
Ashtabula County	15,562	18,133	1,222	34,917	R +7.3
Tuscarawas County	12,646	20,534	1,203	34,383	R +23.0
Erie County	16,113	15,469	1,010	32,592	D +2.0
Muskingum County	10,830	19,791	849	31,470	R +28.5
Hancock County	10,491	19,506	896	30,893	R +29.3
Union County	11,056	17,445	912	29,413	R +21.7
Ross County	10,381	15,392	715	26,488	R +18.9
Knox County	7,859	17,303	805	25,967	R +36.4
Jefferson County	9,590	15,334	771	25,695	R +22.3
Belmont County	9,576	15,313	612	25,501	R +22.5
Washington County	9,319	15,023	701	25,043	R +22.8
Scioto County	9,196	15,221	549	24,966	R +24.1
Sandusky County	9,441	13,485	931	23,857	R +17.0
Pickaway County	7,658	14,863	554	23,075	R +31.2
Athens County	14,967	7,020	940	22,927	D +34.8
Marion County	7,891	13,632	735	22,258	R +25.7
Darke County	3,971	16,959	559	21,489	R +60.3
Huron County	6,962	13,427	805	21,194	R +30.4
Ashland County	5,712	14,564	735	21,011	R +42.1
Lawrence County	7,134	12,930	473	20,537	R +28.3
Seneca County	7,622	12,164	696	20,482	R +22.2
Auglaize County	4,080	15,814	531	20,425	R +57.4
Shelby County	3,867	15,702	564	20,133	R +58.7
Ottawa County	8,361	10,870	635	19,866	R +12.6
Mercer County	3,512	15,080	418	19,010	R +60.9
Logan County	4,286	13,520	646	18,452	R +50.0
Fulton County	5,892	11,480	519	17,891	R +31.2
Preble County	4,251	12,353	620	17,224	R +46.9
Madison County	5,824	10,384	501	16,709	R +27.3
Brown County	4,783	11,072	558	16,413	R +38.2
Putnam County	2,726	13,194	325	16,245	R +64.3
Crawford County	4,513	11,256	455	16,224	R +41.5
Clinton County	4,656	11,065	486	16,207	R +39.4
Champaign County	5,123	10,308	593	16,024	R +32.3
Highland County	3,692	11,262	431	15,385	R +49.2
Defiance County	4,837	9,858	438	15,133	R +33.2
Morrow County	4,353	9,936	488	14,777	R +37.8
Williams County	3,822	10,103	460	14,385	R +43.5
Guernsey County	4,179	9,149	541	13,869	R +35.9
Perry County	4,375	8,500	439	13,314	R +30.9
Coshocton County	3,716	8,950	392	13,058	R +40.0
Henry County	2,826	8,493	338	11,657	R +48.4
Van Wert County	2,789	8,279	308	11,376	R +48.2
Carroll County	3,332	7,292	397	11,021	R +36.0
Jackson County	3,322	7,259	260	10,841	R +36.3
Hocking County	4,006	6,248	349	10,603	R +21.0
Hardin County	2,967	7,164	356	10,487	R +40.1
Gallia County	2,936	7,181	335	10,452	R +40.6
Holmes County	1,676	8,392	333	10,401	R +64.5
Fayette County	2,464	7,195	217	9,876	R +47.9
Adams County	2,525	7,068	246	9,839	R +46.0
Pike County	3,184	5,920	233	9,337	R +29.1
Wyandot County	2,577	6,125	288	8,990	R +39.3
Meigs County	2,542	5,348	320	8,210	R +34.0
Paulding County	1,996	5,053	218	7,267	R +42.0
Harrison County	1,783	3,643	179	5,605	R +32.9
Morgan County	1,673	3,528	139	5,340	R +34.5
Monroe County	1,760	3,349	197	5,306	R +29.7
Noble County	1,390	3,537	179	5,106	R +42.0
Vinton County	1,438	2,916	163	4,517	R +32.6

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

Methodology

Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.