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2026 ballot measure forecast

Montana CI-132

Keep judicial elections nonpartisan

Amends the constitution to require that judicial elections remain nonpartisan. The forecast has Yes at 51.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 60% chance to pass.

Toss upCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentOtherUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
60%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
51.6%
80% range 39 to 65
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
51.6% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
51.6% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Montanans for Nonpartisan Courts, over 3.3 million raised through June 25; Montana Republican Party opposes.

Also on the Montana ballot

CI-133
Protect initiative and referendum rights
48%
I-194
Bar corporate political spending via charter limits
86%

CI-132 by county

Beaverhead CountyBig Horn CountyBlaine CountyBroadwater CountyCarbon CountyCarter CountyCascade CountyChouteau CountyCuster CountyDaniels CountyDawson CountyDeer Lodge CountyFallon CountyFergus CountyFlathead CountyGallatin CountyGarfield CountyGlacier CountyGolden Valley CountyGranite CountyHill CountyJefferson CountyJudith Basin CountyLake CountyLewis and Clark CountyLiberty CountyLincoln CountyMcCone CountyMadison CountyMeagher CountyMineral CountyMissoula CountyMusselshell CountyPark CountyPetroleum CountyPhillips CountyPondera CountyPowder River CountyPowell CountyPrairie CountyRavalli CountyRichland CountyRoosevelt CountyRosebud CountySanders CountySheridan CountySilver Bow CountyStillwater CountySweet Grass CountyTeton CountyToole CountyTreasure CountyValley CountyWheatland CountyWibaux CountyYellowstone CountyYellowstoneMissoulaGallatinFlatheadLewis and ClarkRavalliSilver BowLakeLincolnParkSandersJefferson
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Missoula County: Yes +9,075Gallatin County: Yes +5,904Lewis and Clark County: Yes +2,715Silver Bow County: Yes +1,742Yellowstone County: Yes +1,212Cascade County: Yes +1,041Park County: Yes +675Glacier County: Yes +624Lake County: Yes +546Deer Lodge County: Yes +418Big Horn County: Yes +351Hill County: Yes +245Roosevelt County: Yes +217Blaine County: Yes +185Carbon County: Yes +9Chouteau County: Yes +4Lincoln County: No +677Richland County: No +591Ravalli County: No +577Sanders County: No +514Stillwater County: No +488Musselshell County: No +374Broadwater County: No +369Dawson County: No +355Fergus County: No +350Custer County: No +271Fallon County: No +227Powell County: No +210Valley County: No +209Madison County: No +200Phillips County: No +198Garfield County: No +167Beaverhead County: No +165Toole County: No +155Powder River County: No +153Carter County: No +150McCone County: No +149Sweet Grass County: No +130Flathead County: No +117Mineral County: No +117Teton County: No +116Judith Basin County: No +93Daniels County: No +92Wheatland County: No +83Jefferson County: No +72Pondera County: No +71Meagher County: No +70Wibaux County: No +70Golden Valley County: No +65Granite County: No +65Prairie County: No +63Liberty County: No +62Treasure County: No +58Sheridan County: No +53Petroleum County: No +46Rosebud County: No +42
Yes +24,963 net votes from 16 countiesStatewide Yes +3.2, a 16,929 vote marginNo +8,034 net votes from 40 counties

Projected vote

531,401 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes274,16551.6%
No257,23648.4%
Total531,401100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Yellowstone County37,30636,09473,40050.8%
Missoula County36,07927,00463,08357.2%
Gallatin County33,58027,67661,25654.8%
Flathead County27,18227,29954,48149.9%
Lewis and Clark County19,83717,12236,95953.7%
Cascade County18,04917,00835,05751.5%
Ravalli County12,48613,06325,54948.9%
Silver Bow County9,0687,32616,39455.3%
Lake County7,8117,26515,07651.8%
Lincoln County4,8895,56610,45546.8%
Park County5,2824,6079,88953.4%
Sanders County3,3173,8317,14846.4%
Jefferson County3,4623,5346,99649.5%
Carbon County3,1323,1236,25550.1%
Hill County3,1652,9206,08552.0%
Fergus County2,7743,1245,89847.0%
Custer County2,5482,8195,36747.5%
Madison County2,5832,7835,36648.1%
Beaverhead County2,4512,6165,06748.4%
Stillwater County2,2472,7354,98245.1%
Richland County2,0282,6194,64743.6%
Deer Lodge County2,5142,0964,61054.5%
Glacier County2,5521,9284,48057.0%
Big Horn County2,2681,9174,18554.2%
Dawson County1,8732,2284,10145.7%
Broadwater County1,8052,1743,97945.4%
Valley County1,6921,9013,59347.1%
Roosevelt County1,8301,6133,44353.2%
Rosebud County1,5931,6353,22849.3%
Powell County1,4541,6643,11846.6%
Teton County1,4931,6093,10248.1%
Chouteau County1,3091,3052,61450.1%
Pondera County1,2711,3422,61348.6%
Musselshell County1,1161,4902,60642.8%
Blaine County1,3641,1792,54353.6%
Mineral County1,1731,2902,46347.6%
Sweet Grass County9401,0702,01046.8%
Toole County9181,0731,99146.1%
Phillips County8811,0791,96044.9%
Granite County9259901,91548.3%
Sheridan County8328851,71748.5%
Fallon County5567831,33941.5%
Judith Basin County5126051,11745.8%
Meagher County4925621,05446.7%
Wheatland County44052396345.7%
Powder River County40355695942.0%
McCone County39954894742.1%
Liberty County42248490646.6%
Daniels County35945181044.3%
Carter County30445475840.1%
Prairie County28835163945.1%
Garfield County22238961136.3%
Wibaux County20627648242.7%
Golden Valley County19325845142.8%
Treasure County17423240642.9%
Petroleum County11616227841.7%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
CI-132 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.