2026 forecast · Texas Attorney General
Nathan Johnson and Mayes Middleton are in a toss up for Texas's attorney general.
Nathan Johnson vs Mayes Middleton, an open seat. The model has Middleton ahead by 0.8 points, with a 57 percent chance of winning.
Toss upModel R +0.8Polls R +2.4Updated October 22, 2026
Nathan Johnson
Democrat
47.4%
4,741,473 projected votes
Mayes Middleton
Republican
48.2%
4,823,692 projected votes
57%Middleton
43%Johnson
Middleton slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Middleton wins about 57 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Johnson +1,406,400 net votes from 29 countiesStatewide R +0.8, a 82,230 vote marginMiddleton +1,488,630 net votes from 225 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton R | 4,823,692 | 48.2% |
| Nathan Johnson D | 4,741,473 | 47.4% |
| Tom Oxford, Omer Wagas Khwaja | 433,758 | 4.3% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Johnson | Middleton | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,741,468 | 4,823,698 | 433,750 | 9,998,916 | R +0.8 |
| Harris County | 809,798 | 514,503 | 60,053 | 1,384,354 | D +21.3 |
| Dallas County | 525,739 | 218,650 | 33,757 | 778,146 | D +39.5 |
| Tarrant County | 369,141 | 319,981 | 31,250 | 720,372 | D +6.8 |
| Bexar County | 415,952 | 239,331 | 29,716 | 684,999 | D +25.8 |
| Travis County | 415,397 | 111,658 | 23,900 | 550,955 | D +55.1 |
| Collin County | 212,498 | 206,690 | 19,010 | 438,198 | D +1.3 |
| Denton County | 175,784 | 188,449 | 16,517 | 380,750 | R +3.3 |
| Fort Bend County | 168,398 | 125,302 | 13,318 | 307,018 | D +14.0 |
| Williamson County | 140,589 | 114,141 | 11,551 | 266,281 | D +9.9 |
| Montgomery County | 70,805 | 171,161 | 10,972 | 252,938 | R +39.7 |
| El Paso County | 154,341 | 67,807 | 10,074 | 232,222 | D +37.3 |
| Hidalgo County | 115,413 | 71,822 | 8,491 | 195,726 | D +22.3 |
| Brazoria County | 54,946 | 74,883 | 5,887 | 135,716 | R +14.7 |
| Galveston County | 52,118 | 76,920 | 5,852 | 134,890 | R +18.4 |
| Bell County | 50,831 | 58,883 | 4,976 | 114,690 | R +7.0 |
| Nueces County | 54,680 | 53,011 | 4,884 | 112,575 | D +1.5 |
| Hays County | 62,449 | 42,466 | 4,758 | 109,673 | D +18.2 |
| Lubbock County | 35,417 | 68,566 | 4,715 | 108,698 | R +30.5 |
| Cameron County | 59,499 | 41,932 | 4,600 | 106,031 | D +16.6 |
| Smith County | 24,978 | 61,172 | 3,907 | 90,057 | R +40.2 |
| McLennan County | 32,660 | 52,221 | 3,849 | 88,730 | R +22.1 |
| Comal County | 24,327 | 58,332 | 3,748 | 86,407 | R +39.4 |
| Ellis County | 26,256 | 51,359 | 3,519 | 81,134 | R +30.9 |
| Brazos County | 33,920 | 43,377 | 3,505 | 80,802 | R +11.7 |
| Jefferson County | 37,396 | 36,241 | 3,339 | 76,976 | D +1.5 |
| Parker County | 12,438 | 58,244 | 3,205 | 73,887 | R +62.0 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,899 | 41,313 | 3,048 | 70,260 | R +21.9 |
| Johnson County | 16,574 | 48,587 | 2,955 | 68,116 | R +47.0 |
| Webb County | 37,330 | 20,229 | 2,611 | 60,170 | D +28.4 |
| Randall County | 11,815 | 43,053 | 2,488 | 57,356 | R +54.5 |
| Kaufman County | 18,530 | 34,553 | 2,407 | 55,490 | R +28.9 |
| Grayson County | 12,331 | 39,694 | 2,359 | 54,384 | R +50.3 |
| Rockwall County | 15,034 | 33,870 | 2,218 | 51,122 | R +36.8 |
| Midland County | 10,393 | 38,282 | 2,208 | 50,883 | R +54.8 |
| Taylor County | 12,778 | 34,105 | 2,127 | 49,010 | R +43.5 |
| Gregg County | 11,989 | 26,935 | 1,765 | 40,689 | R +36.7 |
| Wichita County | 12,547 | 25,952 | 1,746 | 40,245 | R +33.3 |
| Tom Green County | 11,095 | 27,100 | 1,732 | 39,927 | R +40.1 |
| Hunt County | 8,176 | 28,588 | 1,667 | 38,431 | R +53.1 |
| Ector County | 9,202 | 25,259 | 1,563 | 36,024 | R +44.6 |
| Bastrop County | 15,404 | 18,296 | 1,528 | 35,228 | R +8.2 |
| Henderson County | 5,936 | 26,018 | 1,448 | 33,402 | R +60.1 |
| Bowie County | 9,123 | 21,765 | 1,402 | 32,290 | R +39.1 |
| Hood County | 5,678 | 24,080 | 1,349 | 31,107 | R +59.2 |
| Victoria County | 9,110 | 20,404 | 1,339 | 30,853 | R +36.6 |
| Orange County | 5,121 | 24,253 | 1,332 | 30,706 | R +62.3 |
| Wise County | 4,393 | 24,934 | 1,329 | 30,656 | R +67.0 |
| Angelina County | 7,567 | 20,907 | 1,292 | 29,766 | R +44.8 |
| Potter County | 9,019 | 19,228 | 1,281 | 29,528 | R +34.6 |
| Liberty County | 4,898 | 20,295 | 1,142 | 26,335 | R +58.5 |
| Harrison County | 6,446 | 18,078 | 1,112 | 25,636 | R +45.4 |
| Kerr County | 5,764 | 18,247 | 1,088 | 25,099 | R +49.7 |
| Kendall County | 5,269 | 18,466 | 1,076 | 24,811 | R +53.2 |
| Van Zandt County | 3,015 | 20,207 | 1,053 | 24,275 | R +70.8 |
| Walker County | 7,592 | 15,545 | 1,049 | 24,186 | R +32.9 |
| Burnet County | 5,449 | 17,424 | 1,037 | 23,910 | R +50.1 |
| Hardin County | 2,860 | 19,601 | 1,019 | 23,480 | R +71.3 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,265 | 14,503 | 987 | 22,755 | R +31.8 |
| Coryell County | 7,194 | 14,515 | 985 | 22,694 | R +32.3 |
| Wilson County | 5,490 | 16,089 | 979 | 22,558 | R +47.0 |
| San Patricio County | 7,794 | 13,548 | 967 | 22,309 | R +25.8 |
| Waller County | 7,895 | 12,746 | 935 | 21,576 | R +22.5 |
| Wood County | 3,064 | 17,104 | 915 | 21,083 | R +66.6 |
| Medina County | 6,037 | 13,875 | 903 | 20,815 | R +37.6 |
| Polk County | 4,330 | 15,177 | 885 | 20,392 | R +53.2 |
| Chambers County | 3,307 | 15,255 | 842 | 19,404 | R +61.6 |
| Rusk County | 3,834 | 14,211 | 818 | 18,863 | R +55.0 |
| Lamar County | 3,710 | 14,069 | 807 | 18,586 | R +55.7 |
| Anderson County | 3,592 | 13,826 | 790 | 18,208 | R +56.2 |
| Cherokee County | 3,285 | 13,631 | 768 | 17,684 | R +58.5 |
| Cooke County | 2,716 | 14,008 | 758 | 17,482 | R +64.6 |
| Navarro County | 4,216 | 12,253 | 747 | 17,216 | R +46.7 |
| Upshur County | 2,504 | 13,583 | 729 | 16,816 | R +65.9 |
| Erath County | 2,669 | 12,717 | 698 | 16,084 | R +62.5 |
| Washington County | 3,476 | 11,744 | 691 | 15,911 | R +52.0 |
| Atascosa County | 4,893 | 10,244 | 687 | 15,824 | R +33.8 |
| Brown County | 1,910 | 12,240 | 642 | 14,792 | R +69.8 |
| Caldwell County | 6,832 | 7,060 | 630 | 14,522 | R +1.6 |
| Gillespie County | 2,823 | 11,028 | 628 | 14,479 | R +56.7 |
| Wharton County | 3,664 | 10,149 | 627 | 14,440 | R +44.9 |
| Starr County | 8,307 | 5,424 | 623 | 14,354 | D +20.1 |
| Hopkins County | 2,782 | 10,876 | 620 | 14,278 | R +56.7 |
| Fannin County | 2,193 | 11,211 | 608 | 14,012 | R +64.4 |
| Hill County | 2,530 | 10,858 | 608 | 13,996 | R +59.5 |
| Jasper County | 2,213 | 10,542 | 579 | 13,334 | R +62.5 |
| Maverick County | 7,244 | 5,370 | 572 | 13,186 | D +14.2 |
| Austin County | 2,356 | 10,020 | 561 | 12,937 | R +59.2 |
| Val Verde County | 5,601 | 6,641 | 554 | 12,796 | R +8.1 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,758 | 5,797 | 525 | 12,080 | R +0.3 |
| Llano County | 2,392 | 9,145 | 523 | 12,060 | R +56.0 |
| Cass County | 2,090 | 9,294 | 516 | 11,900 | R +60.5 |
| Matagorda County | 3,036 | 8,231 | 511 | 11,778 | R +44.1 |
| Grimes County | 2,190 | 8,989 | 507 | 11,686 | R +58.2 |
| Fayette County | 2,208 | 8,940 | 506 | 11,654 | R +57.8 |
| Bandera County | 2,139 | 8,940 | 503 | 11,582 | R +58.7 |
| Aransas County | 2,477 | 8,391 | 493 | 11,361 | R +52.0 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,720 | 9,094 | 491 | 11,305 | R +65.2 |
| San Jacinto County | 2,070 | 8,558 | 482 | 11,110 | R +58.4 |
| Milam County | 2,238 | 7,082 | 422 | 9,742 | R +49.7 |
| Lampasas County | 1,933 | 7,266 | 417 | 9,616 | R +55.5 |
| Panola County | 1,620 | 7,576 | 417 | 9,613 | R +62.0 |
| Kleberg County | 4,621 | 4,525 | 414 | 9,560 | D +1.0 |
| Montague County | 969 | 7,841 | 399 | 9,209 | R +74.6 |
| Lavaca County | 1,088 | 7,637 | 395 | 9,120 | R +71.8 |
| Titus County | 2,029 | 6,529 | 388 | 8,946 | R +50.3 |
| Uvalde County | 3,405 | 5,056 | 383 | 8,844 | R +18.7 |
| Howard County | 1,808 | 6,509 | 377 | 8,694 | R +54.1 |
| Bee County | 2,904 | 5,354 | 375 | 8,633 | R +28.4 |
| Colorado County | 1,839 | 6,396 | 374 | 8,609 | R +52.9 |
| Hale County | 1,800 | 6,294 | 367 | 8,461 | R +53.1 |
| Shelby County | 1,525 | 6,559 | 366 | 8,450 | R +59.6 |
| Houston County | 1,864 | 6,154 | 364 | 8,382 | R +51.2 |
| Tyler County | 1,123 | 6,892 | 364 | 8,379 | R +68.9 |
| Bosque County | 1,421 | 6,535 | 360 | 8,316 | R +61.5 |
| Limestone County | 1,844 | 5,841 | 348 | 8,033 | R +49.8 |
| Burleson County | 1,358 | 6,140 | 340 | 7,838 | R +61.0 |
| Freestone County | 1,273 | 6,172 | 338 | 7,783 | R +63.0 |
| Leon County | 787 | 6,522 | 331 | 7,640 | R +75.1 |
| Lee County | 1,409 | 5,523 | 314 | 7,246 | R +56.8 |
| Eastland County | 847 | 6,061 | 314 | 7,222 | R +72.2 |
| Young County | 849 | 6,042 | 313 | 7,204 | R +72.1 |
| Hutchinson County | 759 | 6,127 | 312 | 7,198 | R +74.6 |
| Blanco County | 1,683 | 5,111 | 308 | 7,102 | R +48.3 |
| DeWitt County | 1,228 | 5,542 | 308 | 7,078 | R +61.0 |
| Robertson County | 1,771 | 4,853 | 301 | 6,925 | R +44.5 |
| Calhoun County | 1,772 | 4,795 | 297 | 6,864 | R +44.0 |
| Hockley County | 1,187 | 5,358 | 297 | 6,842 | R +61.0 |
| Gray County | 656 | 5,827 | 294 | 6,777 | R +76.3 |
| Gonzales County | 1,456 | 4,877 | 288 | 6,621 | R +51.7 |
| Jones County | 925 | 5,246 | 279 | 6,450 | R +67.0 |
| Trinity County | 1,094 | 4,902 | 272 | 6,268 | R +60.8 |
| Callahan County | 631 | 5,177 | 263 | 6,071 | R +74.9 |
| Falls County | 1,618 | 3,853 | 249 | 5,720 | R +39.1 |
| Rains County | 762 | 4,675 | 247 | 5,684 | R +68.8 |
| Comanche County | 740 | 4,601 | 242 | 5,583 | R +69.2 |
| Jackson County | 830 | 4,449 | 239 | 5,518 | R +65.6 |
| Willacy County | 3,059 | 2,055 | 231 | 5,345 | D +18.8 |
| Gaines County | 425 | 4,514 | 223 | 5,162 | R +79.2 |
| Scurry County | 662 | 4,214 | 221 | 5,097 | R +69.7 |
| Clay County | 546 | 4,286 | 219 | 5,051 | R +74.0 |
| Newton County | 923 | 3,888 | 219 | 5,030 | R +58.9 |
| Andrews County | 672 | 4,110 | 217 | 4,999 | R +68.8 |
| Red River County | 1,005 | 3,720 | 215 | 4,940 | R +55.0 |
| Sabine County | 538 | 4,086 | 210 | 4,834 | R +73.4 |
| Karnes County | 1,110 | 3,437 | 205 | 4,752 | R +49.0 |
| Frio County | 2,299 | 2,227 | 204 | 4,730 | D +1.5 |
| Madison County | 863 | 3,661 | 205 | 4,729 | R +59.1 |
| Morris County | 1,221 | 3,241 | 202 | 4,664 | R +43.3 |
| Nolan County | 946 | 3,493 | 202 | 4,641 | R +54.9 |
| Moore County | 773 | 3,636 | 200 | 4,609 | R +62.1 |
| Camp County | 1,061 | 3,309 | 198 | 4,568 | R +49.2 |
| Franklin County | 700 | 3,631 | 195 | 4,526 | R +64.8 |
| Live Oak County | 693 | 3,597 | 195 | 4,485 | R +64.8 |
| Somervell County | 743 | 3,539 | 194 | 4,476 | R +62.5 |
| Archer County | 431 | 3,688 | 187 | 4,306 | R +75.6 |
| Brewster County | 2,115 | 1,947 | 184 | 4,246 | D +4.0 |
| Pecos County | 1,313 | 2,671 | 180 | 4,164 | R +32.6 |
| Wilbarger County | 822 | 3,036 | 174 | 4,032 | R +54.9 |
| Zapata County | 2,124 | 1,724 | 174 | 4,022 | D +9.9 |
| Marion County | 1,014 | 2,828 | 175 | 4,017 | R +45.2 |
| Deaf Smith County | 969 | 2,813 | 172 | 3,954 | R +46.6 |
| Duval County | 2,255 | 1,512 | 171 | 3,938 | D +18.9 |
| Hamilton County | 563 | 3,113 | 168 | 3,844 | R +66.3 |
| Lamb County | 665 | 2,875 | 161 | 3,701 | R +59.7 |
| Runnels County | 407 | 3,093 | 160 | 3,660 | R +73.4 |
| Coleman County | 376 | 3,075 | 157 | 3,608 | R +74.8 |
| Goliad County | 754 | 2,620 | 152 | 3,526 | R +52.9 |
| Jack County | 293 | 3,072 | 153 | 3,518 | R +79.0 |
| Stephens County | 288 | 2,918 | 145 | 3,351 | R +78.5 |
| San Augustine County | 747 | 2,407 | 142 | 3,296 | R +50.3 |
| Dawson County | 650 | 2,431 | 139 | 3,220 | R +55.3 |
| Ward County | 604 | 2,422 | 136 | 3,162 | R +57.5 |
| Terry County | 568 | 2,438 | 136 | 3,142 | R +59.5 |
| Dimmit County | 1,956 | 1,032 | 136 | 3,124 | D +29.6 |
| Zavala County | 2,065 | 869 | 134 | 3,068 | D +39.0 |
| McCulloch County | 423 | 2,452 | 131 | 3,006 | R +67.5 |
| Reeves County | 1,285 | 1,590 | 130 | 3,005 | R +10.2 |
| Carson County | 258 | 2,311 | 117 | 2,686 | R +76.4 |
| Refugio County | 832 | 1,717 | 116 | 2,665 | R +33.2 |
| Ochiltree County | 236 | 2,233 | 111 | 2,580 | R +77.4 |
| Mitchell County | 331 | 1,988 | 105 | 2,424 | R +68.3 |
| San Saba County | 244 | 2,058 | 105 | 2,407 | R +75.3 |
| Brooks County | 1,506 | 745 | 101 | 2,352 | D +32.3 |
| Mills County | 232 | 1,979 | 101 | 2,312 | R +75.5 |
| Parmer County | 331 | 1,849 | 99 | 2,279 | R +66.6 |
| Delta County | 366 | 1,791 | 97 | 2,254 | R +63.2 |
| Mason County | 402 | 1,696 | 96 | 2,194 | R +59.0 |
| Childress County | 240 | 1,768 | 90 | 2,098 | R +72.8 |
| Kimble County | 239 | 1,764 | 90 | 2,093 | R +72.9 |
| Lynn County | 319 | 1,678 | 91 | 2,088 | R +65.1 |
| Swisher County | 412 | 1,572 | 90 | 2,074 | R +56.0 |
| Haskell County | 307 | 1,630 | 87 | 2,024 | R +65.4 |
| Yoakum County | 290 | 1,643 | 88 | 2,021 | R +66.9 |
| La Salle County | 957 | 961 | 87 | 2,005 | R +0.1 |
| Wheeler County | 158 | 1,705 | 83 | 1,946 | R +79.5 |
| Presidio County | 1,371 | 442 | 83 | 1,896 | D +49.0 |
| Castro County | 376 | 1,395 | 80 | 1,851 | R +55.0 |
| Hartley County | 164 | 1,585 | 79 | 1,828 | R +77.7 |
| Floyd County | 310 | 1,358 | 76 | 1,744 | R +60.1 |
| Hansford County | 130 | 1,538 | 76 | 1,744 | R +80.7 |
| Winkler County | 281 | 1,379 | 76 | 1,736 | R +63.2 |
| Martin County | 224 | 1,430 | 76 | 1,730 | R +69.7 |
| Bailey County | 327 | 1,275 | 72 | 1,674 | R +56.7 |
| Crosby County | 415 | 1,108 | 69 | 1,592 | R +43.5 |
| Jim Hogg County | 998 | 505 | 67 | 1,570 | D +31.4 |
| Real County | 232 | 1,265 | 68 | 1,565 | R +66.0 |
| Fisher County | 293 | 1,196 | 67 | 1,556 | R +58.0 |
| Coke County | 156 | 1,331 | 67 | 1,554 | R +75.6 |
| Baylor County | 164 | 1,260 | 64 | 1,488 | R +73.7 |
| Garza County | 224 | 1,194 | 64 | 1,482 | R +65.4 |
| Shackelford County | 128 | 1,253 | 63 | 1,444 | R +77.9 |
| Hemphill County | 179 | 1,196 | 61 | 1,436 | R +70.8 |
| Donley County | 151 | 1,208 | 61 | 1,420 | R +74.5 |
| Dallam County | 154 | 1,165 | 60 | 1,379 | R +73.3 |
| Kinney County | 343 | 896 | 57 | 1,296 | R +42.6 |
| Crockett County | 311 | 885 | 54 | 1,250 | R +45.9 |
| Crane County | 183 | 1,000 | 54 | 1,237 | R +66.0 |
| Sutton County | 222 | 955 | 53 | 1,230 | R +59.6 |
| Hardeman County | 176 | 986 | 52 | 1,214 | R +66.7 |
| Knox County | 195 | 932 | 51 | 1,178 | R +62.5 |
| Upton County | 142 | 948 | 50 | 1,140 | R +70.7 |
| Concho County | 166 | 908 | 48 | 1,122 | R +66.2 |
| Lipscomb County | 106 | 927 | 47 | 1,080 | R +76.0 |
| Jeff Davis County | 440 | 567 | 45 | 1,052 | R +12.1 |
| Collingsworth County | 118 | 865 | 45 | 1,028 | R +72.7 |
| Hall County | 138 | 843 | 44 | 1,025 | R +68.8 |
| Schleicher County | 188 | 778 | 44 | 1,010 | R +58.5 |
| Armstrong County | 73 | 846 | 41 | 960 | R +80.4 |
| Hudspeth County | 310 | 593 | 41 | 944 | R +29.9 |
| Menard County | 149 | 684 | 39 | 872 | R +61.4 |
| Dickens County | 124 | 679 | 36 | 839 | R +66.2 |
| Oldham County | 69 | 715 | 36 | 820 | R +78.8 |
| Reagan County | 130 | 654 | 36 | 820 | R +64.0 |
| Sherman County | 61 | 718 | 35 | 814 | R +80.8 |
| Throckmorton County | 66 | 658 | 32 | 756 | R +78.3 |
| Culberson County | 353 | 352 | 31 | 736 | D +0.1 |
| Cochran County | 127 | 576 | 32 | 735 | R +61.1 |
| Irion County | 90 | 586 | 30 | 706 | R +70.3 |
| Edwards County | 88 | 542 | 28 | 658 | R +68.8 |
| Briscoe County | 54 | 549 | 27 | 630 | R +78.5 |
| Stonewall County | 96 | 476 | 26 | 598 | R +63.7 |
| Motley County | 36 | 511 | 25 | 572 | R +83.1 |
| Cottle County | 83 | 458 | 25 | 566 | R +66.2 |
| Glasscock County | 33 | 492 | 24 | 549 | R +83.5 |
| Sterling County | 35 | 450 | 21 | 506 | R +82.0 |
| Foard County | 95 | 388 | 21 | 504 | R +58.0 |
| Roberts County | 13 | 398 | 18 | 429 | R +89.7 |
| Terrell County | 99 | 270 | 17 | 386 | R +44.5 |
| Kent County | 42 | 318 | 16 | 376 | R +73.5 |
| Borden County | 18 | 290 | 14 | 322 | R +84.7 |
| McMullen County | 24 | 236 | 12 | 272 | R +77.9 |
| King County | 5 | 100 | 5 | 110 | R +86.9 |
| Kenedy County | 22 | 41 | 3 | 66 | R +28.1 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +73.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +5.0 and R +6.6. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +1.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.0 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +0.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.0 and R +6.6.
Polls of the race
16 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Johnson | Middleton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-17 | 47.1 | 52.9 | R +5.8 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 2026-10-14 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 47 | D +1.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 47 | D +1.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 47 | D +1.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R) | 865 LV | 2026-09-24 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 2026-09-22 | 43 | 46 | R +3.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 2026-09-19 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| ReconMR Texas Poll | 614 LV | 2026-09-11 | 44 | 45 | R +1.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 2026-08-24 | 41 | 44 | R +3.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 2026-08-13 | 35 | 40 | R +5.0 |
| Texas A&M / ReconMR / Siena | 619 LV | 2026-07-30 | 44 | 46 | R +2.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | 2026-07-30 | 41 | 46 | R +5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,048 LV | 2026-07-17 | 38 | 39 | R +1.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 2026-06-12 | 36 | 41 | R +5.0 |
| ReconMR / Texas A&M Texas Poll | 807 LV | 2026-06-04 | 40 | 45 | R +5.0 |