Julia Letlow is very likely to win Louisiana's Senate seat.
Jamie Davis vs Julia Letlow, an open seat. The model has Letlow ahead by 11.3 points, winning 96 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.
The county map
Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout
Vote share
Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations
Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.
Projected statewide vote
1,521,802 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Julia Letlow R | 846,760 | 55.6% |
| Jamie Davis D | 675,042 | 44.4% |
| Total | 1,521,802 | 100% |
Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.
Every simulated outcome
2,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +3.0 and R +19.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
The trend
Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates
Polling
Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it
This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point average | Weighted average | R +6.3 | |
| Hart Research Associates (D) | 500 LV | 26d | R +4.044 to 48 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 518 RV | 85d | R +4.037 to 41 |
Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.
Read from 118,587 ballots cast so far in Louisiana, against the party mix the forecast expected of them, with similar states and primary turnout. Early vote tracker
Who has endorsed
24 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.
- Louisiana Democratic Partystate partysource
- Reproductive Freedom for AllReproductive rights group, formerly NARALsource
- Collective PACBlack political candidates PACsource
- Forum for Equality PACLouisiana LGBTQ political groupsource
- Independent Women's Organization of New OrleansDemocratic women's political groupsource
- New Orleans Data News WeeklyNewspapersource
- Orleans Parish Democratic Executive CommitteeParish party committeesource
- People For the American WayProgressive advocacy groupsource
- Donald TrumpPresident of the United Statessource
- Eric SkrmettaLouisiana Public Service Commissionersource
- Liz MurrillLouisiana Attorney Generalsource
- Steve ScaliseHouse Majority Leader, LA-01source
- Rick ScottU.S. Senator from Floridasource
- Katie BrittU.S. Senator from Alabamasource
- Jim BanksU.S. Senator from Indianasource
- Bernie MorenoU.S. Senator from Ohiosource
How we got here
From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time
Who votes for whom
Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Davis | Letlow |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 40.1 | 59.9 |
| Women | 52% | 47.8 | 52.2 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 44.2 | 55.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 43.2 | 56.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 43.2 | 56.8 |
| 65+ | 33% | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| RaceWhite | 62% | 25.8 | 74.2 |
| Black | 30% | 79.6 | 20.4 |
| Latino | 4% | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 57.6 | 42.4 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 29% | 21.0 | 79.0 |
| White women | 33% | 30.1 | 69.9 |
| Black men | 14% | 75.2 | 24.8 |
| Black women | 16% | 83.7 | 16.3 |
| Latino men | 2% | 47.3 | 52.7 |
| Latino women | 2% | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| All other races | 4% | 57.6 | 42.4 |
Every county
The projected vote in each county, largest first
Projected vote by parish
64 parishes| Parish | Davis | Letlow | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 676,127 | 845,686 | 0 | 1,521,802 | R +11.1 |
| East Baton Rouge Parish | 97,033 | 54,813 | 0 | 151,846 | D +27.8 |
| Jefferson Parish | 63,699 | 70,984 | 0 | 134,683 | R +5.5 |
| Orleans Parish | 116,562 | 14,898 | 0 | 131,460 | D +77.4 |
| St. Tammany Parish | 28,590 | 72,044 | 0 | 100,634 | R +43.2 |
| Lafayette Parish | 32,433 | 49,818 | 0 | 82,251 | R +21.2 |
| Caddo Parish | 43,719 | 30,647 | 0 | 74,366 | D +17.6 |
| Calcasieu Parish | 20,823 | 39,385 | 0 | 60,208 | R +30.9 |
| Ouachita Parish | 20,394 | 29,645 | 0 | 50,039 | R +18.6 |
| Livingston Parish | 8,232 | 38,670 | 0 | 46,902 | R +65.0 |
| Ascension Parish | 16,875 | 27,784 | 0 | 44,659 | R +24.5 |
| Tangipahoa Parish | 13,883 | 27,533 | 0 | 41,416 | R +32.9 |
| Rapides Parish | 15,261 | 25,352 | 0 | 40,613 | R +24.9 |
| Bossier Parish | 12,332 | 26,752 | 0 | 39,084 | R +36.8 |
| Lafourche Parish | 7,154 | 24,721 | 0 | 31,875 | R +55.1 |
| Terrebonne Parish | 8,828 | 22,742 | 0 | 31,570 | R +44.1 |
| St. Landry Parish | 13,372 | 14,453 | 0 | 27,825 | R +3.8 |
| Iberia Parish | 8,172 | 13,883 | 0 | 22,055 | R +25.8 |
| St. Charles Parish | 7,350 | 12,309 | 0 | 19,659 | R +25.2 |
| Acadia Parish | 4,078 | 15,388 | 0 | 19,466 | R +58.1 |
| Vermilion Parish | 4,041 | 14,977 | 0 | 19,018 | R +57.5 |
| St. Martin Parish | 6,463 | 11,942 | 0 | 18,405 | R +29.8 |
| St. Mary Parish | 6,337 | 9,360 | 0 | 15,697 | R +19.2 |
| St. John the Baptist Parish | 10,324 | 4,279 | 0 | 14,603 | D +41.4 |
| Lincoln Parish | 5,825 | 8,772 | 0 | 14,597 | R +20.1 |
| Washington Parish | 4,642 | 9,207 | 0 | 13,849 | R +33.0 |
| St. Bernard Parish | 5,054 | 7,424 | 0 | 12,478 | R +19.0 |
| Webster Parish | 4,727 | 7,546 | 0 | 12,273 | R +22.9 |
| Vernon Parish | 2,675 | 9,545 | 0 | 12,220 | R +56.2 |
| Avoyelles Parish | 3,847 | 8,107 | 0 | 11,954 | R +35.7 |
| Natchitoches Parish | 5,338 | 6,395 | 0 | 11,733 | R +9.1 |
| Beauregard Parish | 2,004 | 9,566 | 0 | 11,570 | R +65.4 |
| Iberville Parish | 6,630 | 4,797 | 0 | 11,427 | D +16.1 |
| Jefferson Davis Parish | 2,506 | 7,830 | 0 | 10,336 | R +51.6 |
| Evangeline Parish | 3,167 | 7,165 | 0 | 10,321 | R +38.7 |
| De Soto Parish | 4,293 | 5,925 | 0 | 10,218 | R +16.0 |
| West Baton Rouge Parish | 5,174 | 4,956 | 0 | 10,130 | D +2.2 |
| St. James Parish | 5,119 | 3,468 | 0 | 8,587 | D +19.2 |
| Pointe Coupee Parish | 3,698 | 4,702 | 0 | 8,400 | R +11.9 |
| Morehouse Parish | 3,615 | 4,276 | 0 | 7,891 | R +8.4 |
| Union Parish | 1,932 | 5,776 | 0 | 7,708 | R +49.9 |
| Assumption Parish | 2,988 | 4,591 | 0 | 7,579 | R +21.1 |
| Plaquemines Parish | 2,592 | 4,893 | 0 | 7,485 | R +30.7 |
| East Feliciana Parish | 3,304 | 4,094 | 0 | 7,398 | R +10.8 |
| Sabine Parish | 1,268 | 6,059 | 0 | 7,327 | R +65.5 |
| Richland Parish | 2,408 | 4,494 | 0 | 6,902 | R +30.2 |
| Franklin Parish | 2,114 | 4,611 | 0 | 6,725 | R +37.2 |
| Grant Parish | 1,033 | 5,672 | 0 | 6,705 | R +69.1 |
| Allen Parish | 1,673 | 4,921 | 0 | 6,594 | R +49.3 |
| Concordia Parish | 2,606 | 3,389 | 0 | 5,995 | R +13.2 |
| Jackson Parish | 1,576 | 3,816 | 0 | 5,392 | R +41.5 |
| LaSalle Parish | 497 | 4,482 | 0 | 4,979 | R +80.0 |
| Bienville Parish | 2,260 | 2,481 | 0 | 4,741 | R +4.6 |
| West Feliciana Parish | 1,976 | 2,749 | 0 | 4,725 | R +16.4 |
| Claiborne Parish | 2,069 | 2,433 | 0 | 4,502 | R +7.9 |
| Winn Parish | 1,151 | 3,171 | 0 | 4,322 | R +46.8 |
| St. Helena Parish | 2,562 | 1,678 | 0 | 4,240 | D +20.8 |
| West Carroll Parish | 534 | 2,882 | 0 | 3,416 | R +68.8 |
| Catahoula Parish | 1,017 | 2,284 | 0 | 3,301 | R +38.3 |
| Caldwell Parish | 555 | 2,724 | 0 | 3,279 | R +66.0 |
| Madison Parish | 1,935 | 1,264 | 0 | 3,199 | D +20.9 |
| Red River Parish | 1,224 | 1,551 | 0 | 2,775 | R +11.7 |
| Cameron Parish | 256 | 2,252 | 0 | 2,508 | R +79.7 |
| East Carroll Parish | 1,371 | 648 | 0 | 2,019 | D +35.8 |
| Tensas Parish | 957 | 711 | 0 | 1,668 | D +14.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.