2026 forecast · Texas Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2
James Sullivan is slightly favored to win Texas's justice, supreme court, place 2 race.
Chari Kelly vs James Sullivan, with James Sullivan running again. The model has Sullivan ahead by 2.6 points, with a 69 percent chance of winning.
Lean RModel R +2.6Polls R +5.6Updated October 22, 2026
Chari Kelly
Democrat
47.2%
4,719,315 projected votes
James Sullivan
Republican
49.8%
4,982,198 projected votes
69%Sullivan
31%Kelly
Sullivan favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Sullivan wins about 69 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Kelly +1,341,449 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide R +2.6, a 262,897 vote marginSullivan +1,604,346 net votes from 230 counties
Projected statewide vote
9,998,925 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| James Sullivan R | 4,982,198 | 49.8% |
| Chari Kelly D | 4,719,315 | 47.2% |
| Other candidates | 297,410 | 3.0% |
| Total | 9,998,925 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
254 counties| County | Kelly | Sullivan | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,719,310 | 4,982,207 | 297,399 | 9,998,916 | R +2.6 |
| Harris County | 810,407 | 532,771 | 41,176 | 1,384,354 | D +20.1 |
| Dallas County | 528,090 | 226,911 | 23,145 | 778,146 | D +38.7 |
| Tarrant County | 366,998 | 331,948 | 21,426 | 720,372 | D +4.9 |
| Bexar County | 417,895 | 246,729 | 20,375 | 684,999 | D +25.0 |
| Travis County | 420,393 | 114,174 | 16,388 | 550,955 | D +55.6 |
| Collin County | 211,102 | 214,062 | 13,034 | 438,198 | R +0.7 |
| Denton County | 174,022 | 195,403 | 11,325 | 380,750 | R +5.6 |
| Fort Bend County | 168,098 | 129,788 | 9,132 | 307,018 | D +12.5 |
| Williamson County | 140,132 | 118,229 | 7,920 | 266,281 | D +8.2 |
| Montgomery County | 68,580 | 176,835 | 7,523 | 252,938 | R +42.8 |
| El Paso County | 154,807 | 70,508 | 6,907 | 232,222 | D +36.3 |
| Hidalgo County | 116,310 | 73,595 | 5,821 | 195,726 | D +21.8 |
| Brazoria County | 54,092 | 77,587 | 4,037 | 135,716 | R +17.3 |
| Galveston County | 51,125 | 79,753 | 4,012 | 134,890 | R +21.2 |
| Bell County | 50,606 | 60,672 | 3,412 | 114,690 | R +8.8 |
| Nueces County | 54,227 | 55,000 | 3,348 | 112,575 | R +0.7 |
| Hays County | 62,589 | 43,822 | 3,262 | 109,673 | D +17.1 |
| Lubbock County | 34,529 | 70,936 | 3,233 | 108,698 | R +33.5 |
| Cameron County | 59,482 | 43,395 | 3,154 | 106,031 | D +15.2 |
| Smith County | 24,320 | 63,058 | 2,679 | 90,057 | R +43.0 |
| McLennan County | 31,909 | 54,182 | 2,639 | 88,730 | R +25.1 |
| Comal County | 23,637 | 60,200 | 2,570 | 86,407 | R +42.3 |
| Ellis County | 25,727 | 52,994 | 2,413 | 81,134 | R +33.6 |
| Brazos County | 33,586 | 44,813 | 2,403 | 80,802 | R +13.9 |
| Jefferson County | 36,880 | 37,807 | 2,289 | 76,976 | R +1.2 |
| Parker County | 11,897 | 59,792 | 2,198 | 73,887 | R +64.8 |
| Guadalupe County | 25,304 | 42,866 | 2,090 | 70,260 | R +25.0 |
| Johnson County | 16,037 | 50,052 | 2,027 | 68,116 | R +49.9 |
| Webb County | 37,572 | 20,808 | 1,790 | 60,170 | D +27.9 |
| Randall County | 11,297 | 44,353 | 1,706 | 57,356 | R +57.6 |
| Kaufman County | 18,134 | 35,705 | 1,651 | 55,490 | R +31.7 |
| Grayson County | 11,950 | 40,817 | 1,617 | 54,384 | R +53.1 |
| Rockwall County | 14,614 | 34,988 | 1,520 | 51,122 | R +39.9 |
| Midland County | 9,978 | 39,391 | 1,514 | 50,883 | R +57.8 |
| Taylor County | 12,304 | 35,248 | 1,458 | 49,010 | R +46.8 |
| Gregg County | 11,632 | 27,847 | 1,210 | 40,689 | R +39.9 |
| Wichita County | 12,169 | 26,879 | 1,197 | 40,245 | R +36.5 |
| Tom Green County | 10,726 | 28,013 | 1,188 | 39,927 | R +43.3 |
| Hunt County | 7,895 | 29,393 | 1,143 | 38,431 | R +55.9 |
| Ector County | 8,817 | 26,136 | 1,071 | 36,024 | R +48.1 |
| Bastrop County | 15,228 | 18,953 | 1,047 | 35,228 | R +10.6 |
| Henderson County | 5,719 | 26,690 | 993 | 33,402 | R +62.8 |
| Bowie County | 8,675 | 22,654 | 961 | 32,290 | R +43.3 |
| Hood County | 5,407 | 24,775 | 925 | 31,107 | R +62.3 |
| Victoria County | 8,830 | 21,106 | 917 | 30,853 | R +39.8 |
| Orange County | 4,875 | 24,918 | 913 | 30,706 | R +65.3 |
| Wise County | 4,190 | 25,555 | 911 | 30,656 | R +69.7 |
| Angelina County | 7,256 | 21,624 | 886 | 29,766 | R +48.3 |
| Potter County | 8,758 | 19,892 | 878 | 29,528 | R +37.7 |
| Liberty County | 4,682 | 20,870 | 783 | 26,335 | R +61.5 |
| Harrison County | 6,163 | 18,711 | 762 | 25,636 | R +49.0 |
| Kerr County | 5,585 | 18,767 | 747 | 25,099 | R +52.5 |
| Kendall County | 5,123 | 18,950 | 738 | 24,811 | R +55.7 |
| Van Zandt County | 2,877 | 20,676 | 722 | 24,275 | R +73.3 |
| Walker County | 7,442 | 16,024 | 720 | 24,186 | R +35.5 |
| Burnet County | 5,267 | 17,932 | 711 | 23,910 | R +53.0 |
| Hardin County | 2,700 | 20,081 | 699 | 23,480 | R +74.0 |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,054 | 15,024 | 677 | 22,755 | R +35.0 |
| Coryell County | 6,966 | 15,053 | 675 | 22,694 | R +35.6 |
| Wilson County | 5,277 | 16,610 | 671 | 22,558 | R +50.2 |
| San Patricio County | 7,610 | 14,036 | 663 | 22,309 | R +28.8 |
| Waller County | 7,649 | 13,285 | 642 | 21,576 | R +26.1 |
| Wood County | 2,897 | 17,559 | 627 | 21,083 | R +69.5 |
| Medina County | 5,829 | 14,367 | 619 | 20,815 | R +41.0 |
| Polk County | 4,152 | 15,633 | 607 | 20,392 | R +56.3 |
| Chambers County | 3,144 | 15,682 | 578 | 19,404 | R +64.6 |
| Rusk County | 3,662 | 14,640 | 561 | 18,863 | R +58.2 |
| Lamar County | 3,553 | 14,480 | 553 | 18,586 | R +58.8 |
| Anderson County | 3,447 | 14,220 | 541 | 18,208 | R +59.2 |
| Cherokee County | 3,134 | 14,024 | 526 | 17,684 | R +61.6 |
| Cooke County | 2,620 | 14,342 | 520 | 17,482 | R +67.0 |
| Navarro County | 4,069 | 12,635 | 512 | 17,216 | R +49.8 |
| Upshur County | 2,370 | 13,946 | 500 | 16,816 | R +68.8 |
| Erath County | 2,587 | 13,019 | 478 | 16,084 | R +64.9 |
| Washington County | 3,346 | 12,091 | 474 | 15,911 | R +55.0 |
| Atascosa County | 4,779 | 10,574 | 471 | 15,824 | R +36.6 |
| Brown County | 1,806 | 12,546 | 440 | 14,792 | R +72.6 |
| Caldwell County | 6,713 | 7,377 | 432 | 14,522 | R +4.6 |
| Gillespie County | 2,727 | 11,321 | 431 | 14,479 | R +59.4 |
| Wharton County | 3,528 | 10,483 | 429 | 14,440 | R +48.2 |
| Starr County | 8,442 | 5,484 | 428 | 14,354 | D +20.6 |
| Hopkins County | 2,670 | 11,183 | 425 | 14,278 | R +59.6 |
| Fannin County | 2,115 | 11,481 | 416 | 14,012 | R +66.8 |
| Hill County | 2,403 | 11,176 | 417 | 13,996 | R +62.7 |
| Jasper County | 2,088 | 10,849 | 397 | 13,334 | R +65.7 |
| Maverick County | 7,334 | 5,460 | 392 | 13,186 | D +14.2 |
| Austin County | 2,257 | 10,295 | 385 | 12,937 | R +62.1 |
| Val Verde County | 5,557 | 6,858 | 381 | 12,796 | R +10.2 |
| Jim Wells County | 5,703 | 6,018 | 359 | 12,080 | R +2.6 |
| Llano County | 2,294 | 9,407 | 359 | 12,060 | R +59.0 |
| Cass County | 1,963 | 9,582 | 355 | 11,900 | R +64.0 |
| Matagorda County | 2,946 | 8,482 | 350 | 11,778 | R +47.0 |
| Grimes County | 2,111 | 9,227 | 348 | 11,686 | R +60.9 |
| Fayette County | 2,112 | 9,195 | 347 | 11,654 | R +60.8 |
| Bandera County | 2,060 | 9,178 | 344 | 11,582 | R +61.5 |
| Aransas County | 2,376 | 8,647 | 338 | 11,361 | R +55.2 |
| Palo Pinto County | 1,663 | 9,306 | 336 | 11,305 | R +67.6 |
| San Jacinto County | 1,964 | 8,815 | 331 | 11,110 | R +61.7 |
| Milam County | 2,136 | 7,317 | 289 | 9,742 | R +53.2 |
| Lampasas County | 1,849 | 7,481 | 286 | 9,616 | R +58.6 |
| Panola County | 1,530 | 7,797 | 286 | 9,613 | R +65.2 |
| Kleberg County | 4,577 | 4,699 | 284 | 9,560 | R +1.3 |
| Montague County | 918 | 8,017 | 274 | 9,209 | R +77.1 |
| Lavaca County | 1,033 | 7,817 | 270 | 9,120 | R +74.4 |
| Titus County | 1,947 | 6,733 | 266 | 8,946 | R +53.5 |
| Uvalde County | 3,353 | 5,228 | 263 | 8,844 | R +21.2 |
| Howard County | 1,739 | 6,696 | 259 | 8,694 | R +57.0 |
| Bee County | 2,832 | 5,545 | 256 | 8,633 | R +31.4 |
| Colorado County | 1,764 | 6,589 | 256 | 8,609 | R +56.0 |
| Hale County | 1,726 | 6,484 | 251 | 8,461 | R +56.2 |
| Shelby County | 1,444 | 6,755 | 251 | 8,450 | R +62.8 |
| Houston County | 1,776 | 6,356 | 250 | 8,382 | R +54.6 |
| Tyler County | 1,056 | 7,074 | 249 | 8,379 | R +71.8 |
| Bosque County | 1,358 | 6,712 | 246 | 8,316 | R +64.4 |
| Limestone County | 1,767 | 6,027 | 239 | 8,033 | R +53.0 |
| Burleson County | 1,302 | 6,303 | 233 | 7,838 | R +63.8 |
| Freestone County | 1,214 | 6,337 | 232 | 7,783 | R +65.8 |
| Leon County | 741 | 6,672 | 227 | 7,640 | R +77.6 |
| Lee County | 1,361 | 5,670 | 215 | 7,246 | R +59.5 |
| Eastland County | 799 | 6,208 | 215 | 7,222 | R +74.9 |
| Young County | 802 | 6,188 | 214 | 7,204 | R +74.8 |
| Hutchinson County | 717 | 6,267 | 214 | 7,198 | R +77.1 |
| Blanco County | 1,652 | 5,239 | 211 | 7,102 | R +50.5 |
| DeWitt County | 1,176 | 5,691 | 211 | 7,078 | R +63.8 |
| Robertson County | 1,709 | 5,010 | 206 | 6,925 | R +47.7 |
| Calhoun County | 1,707 | 4,953 | 204 | 6,864 | R +47.3 |
| Hockley County | 1,126 | 5,512 | 204 | 6,842 | R +64.1 |
| Gray County | 615 | 5,960 | 202 | 6,777 | R +78.9 |
| Gonzales County | 1,416 | 5,008 | 197 | 6,621 | R +54.3 |
| Jones County | 873 | 5,385 | 192 | 6,450 | R +70.0 |
| Trinity County | 1,029 | 5,052 | 187 | 6,268 | R +64.2 |
| Callahan County | 601 | 5,290 | 180 | 6,071 | R +77.2 |
| Falls County | 1,560 | 3,989 | 171 | 5,720 | R +42.5 |
| Rains County | 725 | 4,790 | 169 | 5,684 | R +71.5 |
| Comanche County | 703 | 4,714 | 166 | 5,583 | R +71.8 |
| Jackson County | 788 | 4,566 | 164 | 5,518 | R +68.5 |
| Willacy County | 3,061 | 2,125 | 159 | 5,345 | D +17.5 |
| Gaines County | 401 | 4,608 | 153 | 5,162 | R +81.5 |
| Scurry County | 630 | 4,315 | 152 | 5,097 | R +72.3 |
| Clay County | 509 | 4,392 | 150 | 5,051 | R +76.9 |
| Newton County | 868 | 4,012 | 150 | 5,030 | R +62.5 |
| Andrews County | 636 | 4,214 | 149 | 4,999 | R +71.6 |
| Red River County | 956 | 3,836 | 148 | 4,940 | R +58.3 |
| Sabine County | 496 | 4,194 | 144 | 4,834 | R +76.5 |
| Karnes County | 1,069 | 3,542 | 141 | 4,752 | R +52.0 |
| Frio County | 2,317 | 2,273 | 140 | 4,730 | D +0.9 |
| Madison County | 820 | 3,768 | 141 | 4,729 | R +62.3 |
| Morris County | 1,166 | 3,360 | 138 | 4,664 | R +47.0 |
| Nolan County | 900 | 3,603 | 138 | 4,641 | R +58.3 |
| Moore County | 740 | 3,732 | 137 | 4,609 | R +64.9 |
| Camp County | 1,031 | 3,401 | 136 | 4,568 | R +51.9 |
| Franklin County | 665 | 3,726 | 135 | 4,526 | R +67.6 |
| Live Oak County | 660 | 3,691 | 134 | 4,485 | R +67.6 |
| Somervell County | 701 | 3,643 | 132 | 4,476 | R +65.7 |
| Archer County | 400 | 3,777 | 129 | 4,306 | R +78.4 |
| Brewster County | 2,102 | 2,018 | 126 | 4,246 | D +2.0 |
| Pecos County | 1,276 | 2,765 | 123 | 4,164 | R +35.8 |
| Wilbarger County | 780 | 3,133 | 119 | 4,032 | R +58.4 |
| Zapata County | 2,148 | 1,755 | 119 | 4,022 | D +9.8 |
| Marion County | 967 | 2,931 | 119 | 4,017 | R +48.9 |
| Deaf Smith County | 935 | 2,902 | 117 | 3,954 | R +49.8 |
| Duval County | 2,277 | 1,544 | 117 | 3,938 | D +18.6 |
| Hamilton County | 544 | 3,185 | 115 | 3,844 | R +68.7 |
| Lamb County | 631 | 2,960 | 110 | 3,701 | R +62.9 |
| Runnels County | 384 | 3,166 | 110 | 3,660 | R +76.0 |
| Coleman County | 351 | 3,149 | 108 | 3,608 | R +77.5 |
| Goliad County | 721 | 2,700 | 105 | 3,526 | R +56.1 |
| Jack County | 278 | 3,135 | 105 | 3,518 | R +81.2 |
| Stephens County | 271 | 2,980 | 100 | 3,351 | R +80.8 |
| San Augustine County | 710 | 2,488 | 98 | 3,296 | R +54.0 |
| Dawson County | 625 | 2,500 | 95 | 3,220 | R +58.2 |
| Ward County | 578 | 2,490 | 94 | 3,162 | R +60.5 |
| Terry County | 540 | 2,509 | 93 | 3,142 | R +62.7 |
| Dimmit County | 1,979 | 1,052 | 93 | 3,124 | D +29.7 |
| Zavala County | 2,092 | 884 | 92 | 3,068 | D +39.4 |
| McCulloch County | 398 | 2,519 | 89 | 3,006 | R +70.6 |
| Reeves County | 1,266 | 1,650 | 89 | 3,005 | R +12.8 |
| Carson County | 242 | 2,364 | 80 | 2,686 | R +79.0 |
| Refugio County | 801 | 1,784 | 80 | 2,665 | R +36.9 |
| Ochiltree County | 221 | 2,282 | 77 | 2,580 | R +79.9 |
| Mitchell County | 318 | 2,034 | 72 | 2,424 | R +70.8 |
| San Saba County | 232 | 2,104 | 71 | 2,407 | R +77.8 |
| Brooks County | 1,513 | 770 | 69 | 2,352 | D +31.6 |
| Mills County | 222 | 2,021 | 69 | 2,312 | R +77.8 |
| Parmer County | 313 | 1,898 | 68 | 2,279 | R +69.5 |
| Delta County | 349 | 1,838 | 67 | 2,254 | R +66.1 |
| Mason County | 390 | 1,739 | 65 | 2,194 | R +61.5 |
| Childress County | 232 | 1,804 | 62 | 2,098 | R +74.9 |
| Kimble County | 228 | 1,803 | 62 | 2,093 | R +75.3 |
| Lynn County | 303 | 1,724 | 61 | 2,088 | R +68.0 |
| Swisher County | 397 | 1,616 | 61 | 2,074 | R +58.8 |
| Haskell County | 290 | 1,674 | 60 | 2,024 | R +68.4 |
| Yoakum County | 270 | 1,691 | 60 | 2,021 | R +70.3 |
| La Salle County | 954 | 992 | 59 | 2,005 | R +1.9 |
| Wheeler County | 146 | 1,742 | 58 | 1,946 | R +82.0 |
| Presidio County | 1,396 | 443 | 57 | 1,896 | D +50.2 |
| Castro County | 364 | 1,432 | 55 | 1,851 | R +57.7 |
| Hartley County | 155 | 1,619 | 54 | 1,828 | R +80.0 |
| Floyd County | 295 | 1,396 | 53 | 1,744 | R +63.2 |
| Hansford County | 125 | 1,567 | 52 | 1,744 | R +82.7 |
| Winkler County | 269 | 1,414 | 53 | 1,736 | R +66.0 |
| Martin County | 212 | 1,466 | 52 | 1,730 | R +72.5 |
| Bailey County | 313 | 1,312 | 49 | 1,674 | R +59.7 |
| Crosby County | 398 | 1,147 | 47 | 1,592 | R +47.1 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1,012 | 511 | 47 | 1,570 | D +31.9 |
| Real County | 222 | 1,296 | 47 | 1,565 | R +68.6 |
| Fisher County | 276 | 1,234 | 46 | 1,556 | R +61.6 |
| Coke County | 149 | 1,359 | 46 | 1,554 | R +77.8 |
| Baylor County | 152 | 1,292 | 44 | 1,488 | R +76.6 |
| Garza County | 216 | 1,222 | 44 | 1,482 | R +67.9 |
| Shackelford County | 120 | 1,281 | 43 | 1,444 | R +80.4 |
| Hemphill County | 170 | 1,224 | 42 | 1,436 | R +73.4 |
| Donley County | 139 | 1,239 | 42 | 1,420 | R +77.4 |
| Dallam County | 146 | 1,192 | 41 | 1,379 | R +75.8 |
| Kinney County | 333 | 924 | 39 | 1,296 | R +45.6 |
| Crockett County | 305 | 908 | 37 | 1,250 | R +48.3 |
| Crane County | 175 | 1,025 | 37 | 1,237 | R +68.7 |
| Sutton County | 214 | 979 | 37 | 1,230 | R +62.2 |
| Hardeman County | 165 | 1,013 | 36 | 1,214 | R +69.8 |
| Knox County | 186 | 957 | 35 | 1,178 | R +65.5 |
| Upton County | 135 | 971 | 34 | 1,140 | R +73.3 |
| Concho County | 158 | 930 | 34 | 1,122 | R +68.8 |
| Lipscomb County | 97 | 951 | 32 | 1,080 | R +79.1 |
| Jeff Davis County | 432 | 589 | 31 | 1,052 | R +14.9 |
| Collingsworth County | 115 | 883 | 30 | 1,028 | R +74.7 |
| Hall County | 130 | 865 | 30 | 1,025 | R +71.7 |
| Schleicher County | 184 | 796 | 30 | 1,010 | R +60.5 |
| Armstrong County | 70 | 862 | 28 | 960 | R +82.4 |
| Hudspeth County | 300 | 616 | 28 | 944 | R +33.5 |
| Menard County | 141 | 704 | 27 | 872 | R +64.6 |
| Dickens County | 115 | 699 | 25 | 839 | R +69.6 |
| Oldham County | 68 | 728 | 24 | 820 | R +80.5 |
| Reagan County | 125 | 671 | 24 | 820 | R +66.6 |
| Sherman County | 60 | 730 | 24 | 814 | R +82.3 |
| Throckmorton County | 63 | 671 | 22 | 756 | R +80.3 |
| Culberson County | 349 | 366 | 21 | 736 | R +2.3 |
| Cochran County | 122 | 592 | 21 | 735 | R +64.0 |
| Irion County | 84 | 602 | 20 | 706 | R +73.3 |
| Edwards County | 84 | 554 | 20 | 658 | R +71.4 |
| Briscoe County | 50 | 562 | 18 | 630 | R +81.2 |
| Stonewall County | 92 | 487 | 19 | 598 | R +66.1 |
| Motley County | 34 | 521 | 17 | 572 | R +85.1 |
| Cottle County | 79 | 470 | 17 | 566 | R +69.0 |
| Glasscock County | 31 | 501 | 17 | 549 | R +85.6 |
| Sterling County | 31 | 460 | 15 | 506 | R +84.6 |
| Foard County | 90 | 399 | 15 | 504 | R +61.3 |
| Roberts County | 11 | 405 | 13 | 429 | R +91.7 |
| Terrell County | 96 | 279 | 11 | 386 | R +47.3 |
| Kent County | 41 | 324 | 11 | 376 | R +75.4 |
| Borden County | 17 | 295 | 10 | 322 | R +86.3 |
| McMullen County | 24 | 240 | 8 | 272 | R +79.6 |
| King County | 5 | 102 | 3 | 110 | R +88.0 |
| Kenedy County | 23 | 42 | 1 | 66 | R +28.6 |
| Loving County | 3 | 22 | 1 | 26 | R +74.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +4.1 and R +9.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +0.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +1.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +2.0 |
| With polls, 19% weight | R +2.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +4.1 and R +9.4.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Kelly | Sullivan | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-19 | 47.2 | 52.8 | R +5.6 |