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2026 ballot measure forecast

Washington Initiative Measure No. IL26-638

Girls' sports limited to biological females

Bars students defined as biologically male from girls' interschool sports and requires a provider statement verifying sex to participate. The forecast has Yes at 53.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 71% chance to pass.

Leans passCitizen initiated statuteTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
71%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
53.8%
80% range 45 to 63
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
58.1%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
48.4% Yes
Polls
58.1% Yes
Forecast
53.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Let's Go Washington (Brian Heywood) initiative to the Legislature, 400,000 plus signatures; Legislature did not act; WEA and Northwest Progressive Institute oppose.

Also on the Washington ballot

Initiative Measure No. IL26-001
Parents' Bill of Rights reinstatement
30%
Initiative Measure No. IP26-645
Repeal millionaires income tax, ban income taxes
11%

Initiative Measure No. IL26-638 by county

Adams CountyAsotin CountyBenton CountyChelan CountyClallam CountyClark CountyColumbia CountyCowlitz CountyDouglas CountyFerry CountyFranklin CountyGarfield CountyGrant CountyGrays Harbor CountyIsland CountyJefferson CountyKing CountyKitsap CountyKittitas CountyKlickitat CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMason CountyOkanogan CountyPacific CountyPend Oreille CountyPierce CountySan Juan CountySkagit CountySkamania CountySnohomish CountySpokane CountyStevens CountyThurston CountyWahkiakum CountyWalla Walla CountyWhatcom CountyWhitman CountyYakima CountyKingPierceSnohomishSpokaneClarkThurstonKitsapWhatcomBentonYakimaSkagitCowlitz
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Spokane County: Yes +51,132Pierce County: Yes +44,550Clark County: Yes +32,828Benton County: Yes +25,354Snohomish County: Yes +25,229Yakima County: Yes +18,609Cowlitz County: Yes +14,303Lewis County: Yes +14,015Grant County: Yes +11,497Stevens County: Yes +10,369Chelan County: Yes +8,727Thurston County: Yes +8,675Skagit County: Yes +8,108Kitsap County: Yes +7,959Franklin County: Yes +7,743Grays Harbor County: Yes +6,839Mason County: Yes +6,212Kittitas County: Yes +6,045Clallam County: Yes +5,964Walla Walla County: Yes +5,903Douglas County: Yes +5,846Okanogan County: Yes +4,733Whatcom County: Yes +4,156Island County: Yes +4,031Asotin County: Yes +3,110Lincoln County: Yes +2,996Pend Oreille County: Yes +2,909Klickitat County: Yes +2,868Pacific County: Yes +2,330Whitman County: Yes +2,330Adams County: Yes +1,869Skamania County: Yes +1,609Ferry County: Yes +1,297Columbia County: Yes +967Wahkiakum County: Yes +780Garfield County: Yes +578King County: No +160,156Jefferson County: No +2,493San Juan County: No +1,965
Yes +362,470 net votes from 36 countiesStatewide Yes +7.5, a 197,856 vote marginNo +164,614 net votes from 3 counties

Projected vote

2,625,042 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,411,44953.8%
No1,213,59346.2%
Total2,625,042100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
King County312,525472,681785,20639.8%
Pierce County164,964120,414285,37857.8%
Snohomish County150,292125,063275,35554.6%
Spokane County119,40568,273187,67863.6%
Clark County105,20372,375177,57859.2%
Thurston County58,66849,993108,66154.0%
Kitsap County56,67248,713105,38553.8%
Whatcom County49,68745,53195,21852.2%
Benton County45,15319,79964,95269.5%
Yakima County36,71618,10754,82367.0%
Skagit County27,78419,67647,46058.5%
Cowlitz County26,11011,80737,91768.9%
Island County20,11916,08836,20755.6%
Clallam County19,70813,74433,45258.9%
Lewis County22,0017,98629,98773.4%
Chelan County18,7189,99128,70965.2%
Grays Harbor County15,6398,80024,43964.0%
Mason County15,3229,11024,43262.7%
Grant County17,2655,76823,03375.0%
Walla Walla County12,9797,07620,05564.7%
Franklin County13,6685,92519,59369.8%
Stevens County14,7474,37819,12577.1%
Jefferson County7,72710,22017,94743.1%
Kittitas County11,8945,84917,74367.0%
Okanogan County9,2634,53013,79367.2%
Whitman County8,0385,70813,74658.5%
Douglas County9,7913,94513,73671.3%
Pacific County6,0343,7049,73862.0%
San Juan County3,8385,8039,64139.8%
Klickitat County6,1583,2909,44865.2%
Asotin County5,2882,1787,46670.8%
Pend Oreille County4,3011,3925,69375.5%
Lincoln County4,0691,0735,14279.1%
Skamania County3,3511,7425,09365.8%
Adams County2,6808113,49176.8%
Ferry County2,0387412,77973.3%
Wahkiakum County1,4586782,13668.3%
Columbia County1,3804131,79377.0%
Garfield County7962181,01478.5%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Undisclosed · for the Yes side7,500 LV2026-08-3156242258.1%
How this is built
Initiative Measure No. IL26-638 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Washington's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theurbanist.org, kxly.com, en.wikipedia.org, kuow.org. All measures.